Cross-posted from Hoosier Progressive

A new survey from Public Policy Polling suggests the presidential race in Indiana is tight, with Senator Barack Obama holding a statistically insignificant lead over Senator John McCain, 48%-46%.  6% of voters are still undecided or prefer another candidate.  92% of voters are "firm" in their commitment, meaning there is a very small group of 'persuadable' voters.  Not a bad place to be in a pre-Powell poll.

Obama is buoyed by strong support from Democrats and a 10-point margin among Independent voters.  Obama is registering only 89% of black voters, which seems relatively low given the historic nature of his candidacy, considering John Kerry and Al Gore received similar support among black voters in 2004 and 2000, respectively.

Unfortunately, the numbers for Indiana Governor are grim.  Mitch Daniels is leading Jill Long-Thompson by a staggering 21 points, 57%-36%.  Daniels is winning 86% of Republicans, a large majority of Independents, and even 28% of Democrats.  I think this could be very true.  I realize this is anecdotal evidence, but I've talked to a few people around my age who are all Obama voters.  Several of them are voting for Mitch Daniels.  When I ask them why they would do such a thing, they say they have no reason not to and not ONCE could anyone even name the person running against Daniels.  Some of these are educated people.

This poll even looks at the two other statewide races, for Attorney General and for Superintendent of Public Education.  In the AG race, Democrat Linda Pence has a statistically insignificant lead over Republican Greg Zoeller, 42%-39%.  Republican Tony Bennett is leading Democrat Richard Wood by 38%-36% (read that as a tie, too).  The key in these races are the undecideds.  This far down the ballot, there are always a lot of undecided voters and most likely the party that can get the most straight party voters will prevail.

So, some great news, some okay news, and some really bad news.

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The Indianapolis Star and WTHR commissioned a poll of Indiana adults from Iowa-based pollster Selzer & Co. (which does the noted Des Moines Register poll) which was in the field earlier this month. Not too surprisingly, the survey showed the state's Republican Governor Mitch Daniels -- also known as "Governor Privatize" for his move to sell a state toll road to the highest bidder -- is highly vulnerable in his bid for reelection this cycle.

35% of Hoosiers polled say the state is headed in the right direction. 57% say the state is headed in the wrong direction.

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[Democratic Gubernatorial candidate Jill Long-Thompson] believes the property tax issue that brought stunning results in Marion County could have ramifications statewide. The Star-13 poll shows Thompson with a slight edge 44 to 43% over Governor Mitch Daniels with 13% unsure.

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The Star-13 poll gives Democrat [Jim] Schellinger a 44 to 40% lead over Governor Mitch Daniels with sixteen percent undecided. State Republican Party Chairman Murray Clark believes this election will give Hoosiers the opportunity to keep the state moving forward and he sights the property tax debate as an example.

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The upcoming legislative session may prove to be pivital for the Governor and many others.  According to the Star 13 poll 40% of those polled said they approved the job he was doing; 50% disapproved.

Polling released a couple of months back out of the state showed roughly the same conclusion -- Hoosiers are seriously rethinking their decision to elect Daniels four years ago. After the Missouri Governor's race, in which Democrat Jay Nixon already leads incumbent Republican Matt Blunt by a statistically significant margin, Indiana seems to be the next most likely gubernatorial pick-up opportunity for the Democrats this cycle. And in fact in my mind, at least at this juncture, the Indiana governorship seems more likely to flip to the Democrats next fall than the Washington governorship is to swing to the Republicans (despite a rating from The Cook Political Report [.pdf] which puts Washington as more competitive than Indiana).

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It doesn't come as a terrible shock. An unpopular Republican Governor who makes unpopular decisions is polling well below 50 percent even in one of the most reliably Republican states in the nation. Such is the situation for former Bushie and current Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels.

[W]hen asked if they would vote to re-elect Daniels if the election were held today, nearly as many said they would vote to replace him (37 percent) as to re-elect him (39 percent). That difference was within the poll's margin of error of 3.5 percentage points. Another 21 percent said they would consider voting for another candidate, while 3 percent were not sure.

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In a hypothetical race between Daniels and [former Democratic Rep. Jill Long] Thompson, the poll found Daniels leading Thompson 46 percent to 38 percent, with 16 percent undecided.

The statewide telephone poll of 800 people who vote regularly in state elections was conducted Sept. 10-14 by Maryland-based Research 2000. It has an overall margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.

Indiana may be a relatively conservative state, but that doesn't necessarily mean that its residents want their leader to be known as "Governor Privatize," a nickname he has earned by showing a stronger allegiance to big corporations than to his constituents. Case in point: the Indiana Toll Road, which Daniels privatized against the loud outcry of Indianans Hoosiers (regardless of the state's conservatism, voters don't like to see state property handed out to well-connected corporations). It's no wonder, then, that the Republicans lost their majority in the state House last fall.

These numbers show that Daniels is very beatable. The Democrats aren't there yet, but Daniels can indeed be beaten. The Cook Political Report (.pdf) and the Rothenberg Political Report give Daniels a slight advantage at this point, and I feel fairly comfortable giving this race a similar rating. So this is definitely a race to watch as this cycle moves on.

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