Illinois State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias has won the Illinois Democratic Senate Primary to fill Barack Obama's old seat. With 86% of precincts reporting, he leads Chicago Inspector General David Hoffman 39-34 and will face Republican Rep. Mark Kirk, the 57-19 victor of the Republican primary, in the General Election.

Although Kirk ran hard to the right for the primaries, he is generally seen as a moderate and is about the only Republican capable of posing a threat to this Democratic open seat, even in an atmosphere like 2010. Giannoulias was probably not the most electable choice, having won his primary by mid-single digits after initially leading by over 15 points. He will face tough questions in the general about his family's bank's ethics and his ties to developer Tony Rezko. Nevertheless, he did have the backing of most of the Illinois Congressional delegation and leads Kirk in the latest poll (PPP, 1/22-1/25) 42-34. Given the state's history and Kirk's tack to the right, I would call this race a Leans Dem more than I would a true toss-up, though it certainly isn't one to ignore. For a preview of the general, check out this article from Salon's Edward McClelland last Friday.

In related news, the gubernatorial primaries for both parties remain too close to call as of 11:12 CST.

Add Illinois to <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-naiman/can-arlen-specter-end-the_b_388604.html">Pennsylvania</a> as states where there is a contested Senate primary in which the war in Afghanistan has become an issue. The <em>Chicago Tribune</em> reports that the two leading contenders for the Democratic nomination for Barack Obama's former seat in the Senate have staked out diametrically opposed positions. A Tribune <a href="http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/elections/chi-poll-senate-14-dec14,0,5398298.story">poll</a> last month reported that Alexi Giannoulias and Cheryle Jackson were the leading contenders for the Democratic nomination. On Afghanistan, the <em>Tribune</em> reports that Cheryle Jackson wants to end the war, while Giannoulias supports it: <blockquote>"It is time to take care of America again and time to bring our troops home," said Democratic Senate contender <a href="http://www.cheryle2010.com/">Cheryle Jackson</a>, a former president of the Chicago Urban League. "Until we stop spending hundreds of billions on wars, we will not have the focus or money to solve the challenges we face at home."</blockquote>

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If this news pans out, it would be difficult to overstate how badly it augurs for Republican hopes not to see their membership in the Senate fall into the 30s in the 112th Congress.

U. S. Rep. Mark Kirk, preferred by GOP ticket-planners to run for either governor or senator, will decline both jobs in order to seek reelection to his House seat, I have been told on what I believe is excellent authority. The reason is not political but personal. His decision will likely be spun as acknowledgment that no Republican can win either race... a conclusion the liberal media will quickly buy and propagate: but the true reason lies not in politics but with other concerns.

Mark Kirk embodied the Republicans' greatest hopes for picking off a Democratic Senate seat in 2010, a GOP Congressman who won reelection in 2008 against a well funded challenger in a district Barack Obama carried handily. With the Illinois Senate race wide open -- it's unimaginable that Roland Burris will win a full term of his own, or necessarily even run next year -- Kirk had a legitimate shot at being able to beat, or at least be very competitive with, one of the number of strong Democrats looking at the race.

The Chicago Daily Observer, which is breaking the story (which still has yet to be confirmed), suggests we not read too much into it. But it's hard not to. One of the top potential recruits for the GOP nationwide -- and probably the best possible recruit to challenge a seat now held by the Democrats -- is saying no to the party. If there is any silver lining here, it is that Kirk will apparently run for reelection to the House, just about the only scenario in which the GOP keeps the seat in its hands (though that's not a shoo-in). Yet make no mistake -- if confirmed, this would be very bad news for the Republican Party.

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A few notable Senate stories worth posting.

• IL-Sen: Rep. Jan Schakowsky has released an internal poll -- conducted by Lake Research Partners -- that has her barely ahead of a tight pack for next year's Senate primary with Roland Burris in third.

  Via Swing State Project:

  Jan Schakowsky 24
  Alexi Giannoulias 22
  Roland Burris 18
  Undecided 36

  What's notable here is that Schakowsky, who is a member of Congress, is essentially tied with Giannoulias who has already won election statewide as Illinois' state treasurer. That bodes well for Schakowsky in such an early poll, although it's still unclear whether she'll even jump in officially. Josh Kraushaar thinks all signs are pointing to No, but then why did she release this poll? Schakowsky reportedly will make her intentions known for this February '10 primary by June 8.

• FL-Sen: Per The Fix, Charlie Crist is a "near lock" to run for the open Florida Senate seat. He'll make his decision by May 5th. From Cilizza:

  Crist would immediately emerge as the favorite to win the Republican primary although informed observers seem to believe that former state House Speaker Marco Rubio, who is close to former Gov. Jeb Bush, would remain in the primary.

  Crist's candidacy also could have an impact on the Democratic field, with Rep. Ron Klein and Tampa Mayor Pam Iorio potentially passing on the Senate race and taking a look at other statewide openings caused by the domino effect set of by Crist's departure. Rep. Kendrick Meek and state Sen. Dan Gelber are already in the race on the Democratic side.

  From what I've seen, Dan Gelber seems to be the solid progressive in this race. Check him out online HERE.

• CO-Sen: Public Policy Polling has some final thoughts on their poll from last week showing Michael Bennet posting less than stellar numbers:

  I am pretty sure Michael Bennet will get elected to a full term. His numbers aren't that great right now but he's done a good job of fundraising and when he gets to go on tv next year he should be able to convince the voters in the state, most of whom do not know a ton about him, that he deserves to stay. That's particularly helped by the very weak GOP candidate field. If a Bill Owens got into the race it would be a different story but it doesn't look like he's going to.

  -That said, I'm not sure why folks were so shocked that Bennet's numbers this week weren't setting the world on fire. Just because Colorado went well for the Democrats the last few election cycles doesn't mean it's all the sudden a deep blue state. Last summer we showed Ken Salazar's approval rating around 38 or 39 percent. Why would Bennet's be better when he's never run for office before?

  Fair enough.

• AR-Sen: Republican Tim Griffin keeps hinting at challenging Sen. Blanche Lincoln but just can't seem to pull the trigger. In a speech Friday, Griffin addressed one of the reasons he might not jump in against Lincoln:

  Griffin says there aren't enough Republicans in Arkansas to elect a senator, so the GOP has to find a candidate who can capture large blocks of votes from conservative Democrats.

  "Whoever we choose as our nominee to run against her must appeal to conservatives, regardless of party," Griffin told party loyalists at the Saline County Republican Party's annual Lincoln Day dinner.

  "There aren't enough Republicans in the state to get us elected. It's just a fact, it's a numbers game," Griffin said. Griffin is a former Republican Party operative and briefly served as an interim U.S. Attorney.

  One reason Griffin didn't address:

  Griffin, a former aide to ex-presidential adviser Karl Rove, was appointed as interim U.S. attorney for the Eastern District of Arkansas after Bud Cummins resigned his post. Cummins later said he was forced out by the Justice Department, and his firing was one of several that prompted a congressional inquiry of the dismissals.

  Griffin, who said he wouldn't seek Senate confirmation, resigned after six months. [...]

  Griffin has said he's prepared to address the firings controversy if it comes up as he mulls a run against Lincoln.

  Griffin is expected to make his decision known by "early summer."

• NY-Sen: Senator Kirsten Gillibrand has been getting acquainted with downstate voters as she ramps up her first statewide run. So far, she is getting some good reviews. One blogger wonders: is she being under-estimated?

  At the event, she touted the stimulus package, detailing Long Island's infrastructure projects. Gillibrand also urged the Island's business leaders to hire returning Iraq and Afghanistan veterans, who are re-entering the workforce during a recession.

  From there she traveled with Nassau exec Tom Suozzi, Long Island Farm Bureau head Joe Gergela and Pat Hooker, commissioner of New York State Agriculture and Markets to Martin Viette Nurseries in East Norwich to launch the "Grown on LI" campaign. [...]

  "She's becoming more visible and we're starting to see that she's about more than the Second Amendment, which has to give her rivals pause," said one prominent Democrat who doesn't plan to immediately support anyone in a primary. "As people meet her, they like her."

Anything else on the Senate front catch your eye?

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Nope, not missing any zeroes. I know it's not exactly news that there's no way Roland Burris will be the Democratic nominee for Senate from Illinois in 2010, but this is just too pathetic slash amusing not to share:

U.S. Senator Roland Burris, the controversial appointee to the seat once held by President Barack Obama, is holding his first campaign fundraiser since he took office this weekend--and the financial report he filed this week shows he could use some political donations.

Burris campaign officials on Thursday released a report showing the new senator raised only $845 from January through March and had $111,032 in debts from defending himself in ongoing ethics and perjury probes and travel.

Burris never has been a prolific fundraiser during his decades in politics. And his first three months on the job have been focused on a U.S. Senate Ethics Committee investigation and a Sangamon County perjury probe over his testimony before the Illinois House panel that recommended impeaching then-Gov. Rod Blagojevich.

Yes, his first real fundraiser is this Sunday and it is hilariously billed as a gathering of "potential donors" and a "a friend and family thing." It's the real world equivalent of when Michael Scott asked his grandmother's investment club to invest in the Michael Scott Paper Company.

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