Here is episode 2 of the countdown to finally ending this primary, now including projected add-on delegates.

Delegate "Magic Number" Tracker
(FL and MI Excluded)

	Obama	Clinton
Current Pledged Delegates	1416	1253
Current Super Delegates	222	248
Total Delegates to Date	1638	1501
Needed for Nomination	386	523
Projected Pledged Delegates	270	296
Projected Add-On Delegates	37	25
Pelosi Club	6	-1
Total Current and Projected Delegates	1951	1821
"Magic Number"	73	203
% of Remaining SDs Needed	28.2%	78.4%

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In yesterday's NY Times, a Republican columnist admits why he really supports Obama:

So throughout the Democratic primaries, I've been rooting for Barack Obama. The nobler side of me admires him, even across party lines, for the tremendous interest and enthusiasm he has engendered among younger Americans. But the larger, less decent part of me believes that Hillary Clinton would be a more formidable general election opponent for the Republican nominee. She's certainly on the ropes right now: her campaign has been flailing through the last few rounds of primaries in a way that Clintons are usually able to avoid. But we've been losing to Clintons for a long time now: I'd still just as soon avoid her in a general election campaign.

There's something other than superstition at work here: there's also a question of ideological positioning. Many of my fellow Republicans don't believe it, but Mrs. Clinton has actually fashioned a relatively centrist career as a senator. By contrast, Mr. Obama's voting record has been designated by the respected and nonpartisan National Journal as the most liberal of any of the Senate's 100 members. This is not merely an epithet: it represents a series of policy choices and legislative votes that leave Senator Obama to the left of Ted Kennedy, John Kerry and Barbara Boxer. Even the most inspirational and inclusive language in the world will face a stern test in the face of accusations on that front.

Dan Schnur, "Why I'm Afraid of the Clintons,"The New York Times, February 28, 2008

Hillary will still prevail!

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While this polling and race analysis is primarily for bucking up Obama fans, it is also not completely biased. While, I want Obama to get the nomination, I also think he can and that belief could change. There will be valuable information for non-Obama fans also.
    Let me begin by saying Hillary Clinton is the front-runner. So long as she has a national polling lead of roughly 20 points, she will be the front-runner. However the polling is not anywhere near inevitability level and while Obama supporters may know that intuitively, it is important that we are able to explain why it is so. Particularly when numbers like a 33% poll come out. This poll was a major outlier based not just on the other national polls but also any intelligent analysis of the state polling.  It is also important that has much as this is a race for votes, it is also a race for delegates.  An understanding how this race may play out follows, also with the history guide such a scenario.

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Watching the video of Clinton's Iowa town meeting.  You have to be impressed that she has addressed the issues of her being scripted and speaking in incomprehensible senatorese.

She was really good.  Very engaging. Good answers. She came across as a real person and she hasn't always succeeded at that.

It's going to be fascinating to watch the first debate between Clinton, Edwards and Obama.

I'm still thinking Obama will start separating from the pack during the debates but Clinton's demonstrating her ability to speak on her feet with no script makes me rethink her chances.

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