I was surpised to see from the results taken off the SOS site that Ciro actually won the early voting in TX23. Here are the numbers by county:

County       Bonilla Rodriguez Total   Precincts Total
              REP     DEM     Votes    Reported Precincts
ALL COUNTIES  32,165  38,247  70,412       267 267
Early         14,419  16,896  31,315  
BEXAR         19,921  25,603  45,524        92  92
Early          9,191  11,846  21,037  
BREWSTER         630     692   1,322         9   9
Early            343     280     623
CROCKETT         369     103     472         5   5
Early            217      47     264
CULBERSON         68      78     146         5   5
Early             31      10      41
DIMMIT           292     867   1,159         8   8
Early             83     161     244
EDWARDS          325      82     407         6   6
Early            154      34     188
EL PASO          226     422     648         8   8
Early             60     119     179  
HUDSPETH         130      36     166         6   6
Early             13       7      20
JEFF DAVIS       321     189     510         6   6
Early            163      80     243
KINNEY           416     216     632         5   5
Early            196      97     293
MAVERICK         471   2,857   3,328        15  15
Early            154   1,402   1,556
MEDINA         3,174   1,511   4,685        24  24
Early          1,080     434   1,514
PECOS            875     444   1,319         8   8
Early            441     236     677
PRESIDIO         161     299     460         8   8
Early             88     131     219  
REEVES           476     361     837        12  12
Early            239     189     428  
SUTTON           146      53     199         5   5
Early             63       7      70  
TERRELL          100      61     161         5   5
Early             49      26      75
UVALDE         1,867   1,220   3,087        15  15
Early            754     437   1,191
VAL VERDE      1,942   1,873   3,815        18  18
Early            993     901   1,894
ZAVALA           255   1,280   1,535         7   7
Early            107     452     559

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There has been a great deal discussed on these MYDD pages in support of Howard Dean's 50 state project and more discussed abpout the blueing of rural America and the Southwest. What I find interesting in these results is that when Democratic Bexar County (San Antonio) is taken out of the equation, Ciro still won the district by over 300 votes in the remaining mostly rural populated sections of the district.  It would seem that the Democratic Party truely is competitive again in rural America!

There's more...

The final election of the year takes place tonight, in the Texas 23rd congressional district. Oddly enough, it features Ciro Rodriguez, who was also featured in what amounted to the first general election of 2006 back on March 7th. In that election, for TX-28, no Republican was running, and so the Democratic primary between Rodriguez and Henry Cuellar was, in effect, the general election. For the second time in two years, Cuellar defeated Rodriguez. However, when Texas was ordered to partially redraw its congressional maps over the summer, Rodriguez then filed to run in the new, more Democratic and heavily Latino TX-23. With that background out of the way, here are some quick thoughts on 2006's final Election Day:

• The final public poll on the race shows Republican Henry Bonilla ahead 51-47. This is a slight tightening from 53-46 last week. Both polls were conducted by Survey USA.
  
  
• The main difference between the two polls is that in last week's Survey USA, the Anglo--Latino breakdown was 59%--36%, and in the latest poll it is 53%--39%. I have said it before and I will say it again: Rodriguez wins if Latinos make up 45% of the electorate or more. In a district that is 65.1% Latino, on the surface it looks as though that will not be a problem However, I do not know what percentage of the voting eligible population Latinos represent in the district, nor am I aware what percentage of registered voters they make up in this district. Both figures are probably significantly lower than 65.1%.
  
  
• Expect low turnout. I mean, an election on December 12th? That is both very late in the year and, I believe, taking place on a Mexican holiday. The latter could be particularly damaging to Rodriguez's campaign. It also doesn't help that Republicans seem to have early voting locked down in these special elections. We saw it in OH-02, CA-48 and CA-50. Francine Busby narrowly won on Election Day back on June 6th, but early voting in the district skewed Republican and so she lost. I fear we will see much of the same in TX-23.
  
  
• Overall, I predict Bonilla to hang on, 53-47. However, this is a very winnable sat for 2008, even if we fail this time around. Overwhelmingly Latino areas of the nation such as this can be won if new voter registration and engagement programs are raised above the level of vaporware. Even the entire state of Texas could be a major Senate battleground in 2008 if the Latino vote can become increasingly mobilized. That was, after all, one of the promises of the great marches last spring: Latinos, Asians and immigrants would become a rising power in American politics. The Latino shift toward Democrats in 2006 was a major factor in the Democratic victory, but as of yet there has been little benefit to a rising generation of progressive Latino candidates. It would serve as a nice coda on the 2006 election cycle to see that change tonight.

This is a thread on TX-23. What are your predictions and thoughts?

If you don't know already, Rethug Henry Bonilla has an attack ad out saying that Democrat Ciro Rodriguez supported Terrorists.

No, that was not a joke. If you thought that racist attack ad against Harold Ford was bad, check out this ad featuring a terrorist Santa Claus. Bonilla has an ad which features a former FBI agent, Al Ortiz, claiming Rodriguez aided terrorists.

Ortiz urges viewers to "check the record. Judgment matters."

Well, FactCheck.org did check the record and they flat called the ad deceitful.

We find this ad deceitful on several counts. The ad is a misleading appeal to fear on the terrorism issue. - FactCheck.org

The only reason why you put out a misleading ad this close to the election is to scare and decieve voters before the facts get out to prove you're lying. By the time the local news reports the truth, you've won the election and do your best Tom Delay dance to the bank.

Henry Bonilla should be ashamed of himself.

This hasn't been published on FactCheck.Org yet (Mon?) so click here & pass it on!

There's more...

Joining up with WOAI-TV, Survey USA has released a public poll of TX-23.

Filtering: 1,000 Registered Voters from Texas's 23rd Congressional District, chosen using Registration Based Sample from Aristotle International, were interviewed 12/1/06 through 12/3/06. Of them, 471 were judged to be "likely" voters. Crosstabs reflect Likely Voters. Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.6%

Bonilla (R) 53%
Rodriguez (D) 46%
Undecided 1%

Bonilla gets 70% of White votes. Rodriguez gets 72% of Hispanic votes. In SurveyUSA's turnout model, 59% of likely runoff voters are white, 36% are Hispanic. If Hispanics, who are 55% of the population in TX 23, make up more than 36% of those who vote in the Runoff, the contest will be closer than SurveyUSA's numbers here show.

Bonilla gets 94% of Republican votes. Rodriguez gets 89% of Democratic votes. Independents split. Bonilla wins by 25 points among higher-income voters, and by 15 points among middle-income voters. Rodriguez wins by 25 points among lower-income voters.

The bolded section is key. Hispanic turnout in Texas as shown on November 7th under performs the registration levels. But this is a low-turnout runoff election. Trying to predict which side is going to turnout is indeed the mystery.

As it stands with the early vote in Bexar County, 48% of the vote is coming from the heavily Hispanic southside locations and 52% from the more anglo northwest. That's just one county, though the epicenter of voter turnout. And you never know, Election Day could still change.

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LA-02 and FL-13 are not the only elections stll going on right now--Chris

Unknown to some, Bexar County, home to potentially 70% of the TX-23 Congressional Runoff vote, held 2 days of weekend early voting after LULAC won a federal lawsuit (pdf) against Republican Gov. Rick Perry. I've compiled the returns to date below, dividing the sites by where each candidate is suspected to be strongest. A map of these sites in the order listed is here for a visual representation- Democrat Ciro Rodriguez's stronghold being the South Side of San Antonio (marked with *s).

Early Vote LocationSatSunTotal*Bexar Justice Center15924CPS Energy (Military)326199525First Baptist Church20993302*Maury Maverick Library316148464Pecan Valley Elementary301176477*Shavano Baptist Church568302870*South Park Mall335251586TOTAL207011783248

*Southside (Ciro-D)194459.9%Northwest (Rep. Bonilla-R)130440.1%

This is very good news as many of the south side precincts, Ciro's base for over a decade, are up to 95% Hispanic and equally as Democratic but historically low in turnout. The fact that the southern sites are doing this well in the primary battleground county is a welcome surprise.

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