I've been trying to track the transformational potential of the Bush presidency -- how the tenure of George W. Bush could change the electorate for decades to come to become significantly more Democratic -- for some time. Back before the election, for instance, I pointed to the argument that once political and partisan leanings are enshrined in young voters, as they appeared to be doing last fall, they tend stay with that cohort for as long as that cohort stays in the electorate.

Exit polling from last November's elections indicated that younger voters -- those age 18 to 29 -- were more likely than any other age group to vote for Democrats, backing Democratic House candidates over GOP candidates by a whopping 60 percent to 38 percent margin (up from 55 percent to 44 percent in the 2004 House elections). Subsequent polling undertaken by Pew back in January also indicated a decidedly Democratic and progressive lean to the group they labeled as "generation next." And now a new survey (.pdf) commissioned by The New York Times, CBS News and MTV finds that younger voters look a lot more Democratic and progressive than the electorate as a whole.

Let's start with partisanship. Those polled, who are aged 17 to 29, self-identify as 12 points more Democratic than Republican (35 percent to 23 percent), a margin not terribly larger than the 8-point margin by which all American adults polled recently in a separate survey by CBS News and The Times self identified as Democratic (37 percent to 29 percent). Similarly, the Democrats 22-point lead (54 percent to 32 percent) in the generic presidential ballot question over the Republicans among this subgroup is not much larger than the 16-point margin (49 percent to 33 percent) by which Democrats lead among all adults. But when asked if "there is any candidate you feel enthusiastic about", and if so whom, 18 percent of younger voters volunteered the name Barack Obama and 17 percent volunteered the name Hillary Clinton. For comparison's sake, the candidate mentioned most frequently after those two Democrats was Rudy Giuliani, who was volunteered by just 4 percent. Overall, roughly 36 percent of those younger voters said they were enthusiastic about a particular Democratic candidate while just 11 percent said they were enthusiastic about a particular Republican one. And on the question of which party comes closer to sharing one's moral values, young voters side with the Democrats by a 16-point margin (52 percent to 36 percent) -- a much larger spread than the 5-point margin (46 percent to 41 percent) by which all adults lean towards the Democrats on the question.

When going through issue by issue, it's easy to see why younger voters are more likely to believe that the Democrats are close to them on moral values questions. Just shy of a half of younger voters (44 percent) favor allowing gay marriage versus well under a third (28 percent) of all adults. More than three-in-five younger voters (62 percent) would favor a single-payer healthcare system over the current system while less than half of all adults (47 percent) would. While the poll found that younger voters look more like the rest of America on other issues like abortion, by and large on many of these questions younger voters seem to be significantly more progressive than the general population. It's little wonder, then, that 28 percent of younger voters self-identify as liberal (versus 20 percent among all adults) and just 27 percent self-identify as conservative (versus 32 percent among all adults).

It's certainly true that political and ideological sentiments can change over time -- and even quite rapidly. Along these lines, it's quite possible that the Democrats will take steps that drastically undercut the good will they have gained among younger voters. Nonetheless, there is a real opportunity for the Democrats to tap into the power of the youth vote to achieve a lasting victory, not only this cycle but in elections to come. And the fact that this polling indicates that 58 percent of younger voters are paying attention to the campaign, up from 35 percent at the same point in the 2004 election cycle, indicates that the youth vote is indeed hankering to be tapped into.

There's more...

Back before the election, I noted trends within younger voters that augured well for Democrats hoping to tap the age cohort for support not only in the 2006 midterms but also in years to come. Indeed on election day last fall, those under the age of 30 supported the Democrats by a 60 percent to 38 percent margin according to exit polling -- the largest margin, either way, for any age group listed. And judging by polling released yesterday by The Pew Center, it appears that the political views of younger voters, who the pollster refers to as "generation next", could place them firmly in the progressive tent for some time to come. Among other things, Pew finds that:

• About half of Gen Nexters saw the growing number of immigrants to the U.S. strengthens the country -- more than any generation. And they also lead the way in their support for gay marriage and acceptance of interracial dating.
  
• Beyond these social issues, their views defy easy categorization. For example, Generation Next is less critical of government regulation of business but also less critical of business itself. And they are the most likely of any generation to support privatization of the Social Security system.
  
• In Pew surveys in 2006, nearly half of young people (48%) identified more with the Democratic Party, while just 35% affiliated more with the GOP. This makes Generation Next the least Republican generation.
  
• They are significantly less cynical about government and political leaders than are other Americans or the previous generation of young people. A majority of Americans agree with the statement: "When something is run by the government, it is usually inefficient and wasteful," but most Generation Nexters reject this idea.

Of course not all of these findings bode well for the Democrats. The fact that this generation (age 18 to 25, according to Pew) is more supportive of the partial privatization of Social Security indicates that they are not wholly in line with the policies of the Democratic Party. Yet at the same time, their embrace of government -- and particularly government's capacity to do good -- indicates that Democrats might not have quite so far to go to restore Americans' faith in government, thus buttressing progressivism. What's more, the social views (or cultural progressivism) of this age cohort -- being repelled by the nativism and discriminatory language embraced by many in the Republican Party, for example -- could cause real problems in the future for conservatives should they (as I assume they will) continue to wage a culture war in this country.

We need not overstate the meaning of this polling. Opinions can be fleeting, and the Democrats can quickly lose the support of these voters. Moreover, although people's voting patterns tend to solidify once they have supported one party or the other in a number of consecutive elections, new cleavages within the electorate can emerge rather quickly that reshape the partisan playing field. That all said, the Democrats do have a chance to tap this generation for support -- perhaps like none other in recent memory.

There's more...