This Is What A Mandate Looks Like

Gallup polled Barack Obama's favorability a few days after his victory last Tuesday and found it has actually soared even higher than the 61% that rated him as favorable in the days leading up to the election.  

Barack Obama Favorability Ratings Nov. 6-8

Favorable 70
Unfavorable 25

In addition they polled the confidence people have in Obama to be a good president.

Are you confident or not confident in Barack Obama's ability to be a good president?

Confident 65
Not confident 28
No opinion 7

Gallup puts these numbers in perspective.

Obama's favorable ratings from the American people have increased since the election -- rising to 70%, up from 61% in Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Nov. 1-3. But even the pre-election 61% reading broke records, marking the highest rating for any presidential candidate in the 1992-2008 period in which Gallup measured favorability using the current question.

As if to reinforce the point that Obama's election was a repudiation of George Bush's presidency, Gallup puts Obama's favorables up against Bush's record low approval ratings.

George W. Bush Approval rating Nov. 6-8

Approve 27
Dis-approve 66

Gallup:

Presidential transitions are always fascinating spectacles, but Monday's White House encounter between Bush and Obama promises to be especially so because of the historic aspect of the nation's first black president-elect taking a step closer to assuming the highest office. It will also be fascinating because of the sharp contrast between Bush and Obama in popularity. At no time in a half century -- and maybe more -- has a president as beleaguered in public opinion as Bush been replaced by someone so highly esteemed.

Seeing this historic level of popularity for the incoming president, I'm even more optimistic that President-elect Obama will heed his own words from his speech last Tuesday:

This is our moment.

This is our time, to put our people back to work and open doors of opportunity for our kids; to restore prosperity and promote the cause of peace; to reclaim the American dream and reaffirm that fundamental truth, that, out of many, we are one; that while we breathe, we hope. And where we are met with cynicism and doubts and those who tell us that we can't, we will respond with that timeless creed that sums up the spirit of a people: Yes, we can.

And even more to the point, I hope he'll heed those of historian Doris Kearns Goodwin from yesterday's Meet The Press:

Roosevelt became great because of what he did.  So the challenge will be [Obama's] got a mandate, he's got a majority, and he's got a program.  Progressive goals are out there, he's going to have to learn like Roosevelt did in the, in the World War II, even more than the New Deal, move step by step to educate the country, but don't give, don't give up on those progressive goals. This is a mysterious cycle in events that we're going through.  Just like Roosevelt said, "We have a rendezvous with destiny." It's a pretty exciting time.  And my hope is that he doesn't let that go.  LBJ did it in '64 and '65.  It's one of those moments in history, you got to make use of that moment.

There's more...

Biden vs Palin by Rasmussen: Who Came Off Better?

Rasmussen put out a new poll featuring favorability numbers for the VP candidates after the debate. Conventional wisdom was that Palin was much more likable and that Biden was nice, but dull and people didn't respond to him. And the question of "Who won the debate?" showed a conflicted view. He won by a somewhat slim margin of 45%-37%. But when you look at the difference in favorability from a poll taken on September 24, you understand what Joe was trying to do.

Biden had a lot to gain in terms of favorability. I maintained that he had extremely high uncertain numbers that would almost assuredly go up rather than down, and that not only would he win the "ready to be VP" test, but he would emerge as the winner in favorability as well. So what do Rasmussen's head to head numbers show?
On this table, I count the difference on each level, counting a rise in favorable ratings and a drop in unfavorable ratings as positive.

Candidate+++---?
Palin36%18%11%31%3%
36%17%16%29%2%
0%-1%-5%+2%-4%
Candidate+++---?
Biden22%27%20%21%10%
25%34%21%17%3%
+3%+7%-1%+4%13%

This clearly shows what happened. 13% total difference towards a more favorable view of Biden (double counting, but whatever), and 4% of a total net loss for Palin. If you want to weigh it by giving the changes on both extremes double value, it gets even better for Biden, becoming -2% to +20%.

Granted, this top polling happened before the Couric incident, but it still captures the net result. Granted, you can argue that the debate made a difference from her standing immediately beforehand, but that is not the point. The point is that Biden went from reasonably popular to overwhelmingly popular in the last week and a half, while Palin actually got a little LESS popular. Remember: The ONLY metric Sarah Palin can win on is favorability.

Knowing that, the question of did better isn't even up for discussion.

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What happens when 56% of the public doesn't like you?

A poll conducted April 10-13 by ABC/Washingtonpost shows Hillary Clinton to have a 56% unfavorability rating compared to 39% for Barack Obama and 40% for John McCain.  The net favorability rating (Favorable minus Unfavorable) of the candidates were +17% for Obama, +13% for McCain and -10% for Hillary Clinton.  Notably (or not), Bill Clinton had a -4% net favorability.

This poll is remarkable for several reasons.  First, Hillary is in a relatively strong position in the Democratic primary.  Obama is clearly leading at the moment, but she appears to be poised to win Pennsylvania convincingly and perhaps Indiana as well.  There is a possibility that she could hang in there until the Convention and make things..uh...interesting...for all of us.  But perhaps most surprising is that she had a net +18% favorability in January in this same poll, that's a change of -35% in her overall favorability - while campaigning.  That's not good.

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Poll: Hillary Clinton's Unfavorability Jumps

The latest Gallup Poll shows that Hillary Clinton's Favorable/Unfavorable numbers switch dramatically since it's last poll on this topic.  Hillary's favorable/unfavorable percentages switched from 58% favorable/40% unfavorable in December of 2006 to 45% favorable/52% unfavorable in this latest poll.

What was interesting in this poll is the respondents were asked open-ended questions on what they liked and disliked about Hillary.  The things that people liked most about Clinton was:

Strength/Stamina 10%
Intelligence - 9%
Her campaign for the presidency - 7% Determination/Tenacity/Perseverance - 6% Forthright/Outspoken/Direct - 6%
Knowledgable/well-informed - 6%
Political career/leadership - 6%.  

What was also interesting in what people liked about Hillary Clinton was that just 1% of the respondents mentioned 'Views on Iraq'.  In fact, views and issues were not mentioned as much as her personal characteristics or intelligence.

There's more...

Graphs: Republican Brand Near Record Low Favorability

The CBS/NYT polls have asked whether people view the Republican and Democratic parties favorably or unfavorably since December 1985, back when both parties were viewed in overwhelmingly positive terms (nearly 60% favorable for both).


Click to enlarge.

Now, in 2006, ratings of Republicans are near the record lows set in 1998/1999, while Democrats maintain moderately high ratings (last poll R -19, D +12).  Clearly, the Republican brand is tarnished - not a surprise, but the numbers are stark.  Another factor in our favor for next month's elections.

A closer look below, with Gallup, Rasmussen, Pew, ABC/WaPo, Fox, and NBC/WSJ polls as well.  Cross-posted at DailyKos.

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