Obama's Spot: Politico Flatulates, ABC Fails (preview inside!)

If you guys are like me, and I know you are, you're eagerly anticipating Obama's thirty minute spot tonight and highly curious about its contents. In typical Obama fashion, his campaign has managed to keep tight lips about the ad buy, so the speculation abounds.

We've witnessed the friendly criticism on the left (e.g., "You're going to be on all the TV? Are you going to interrupt my TV?"--Malia Obama), and we've seen the hysterical presumptions by the right (e.g., "It's a victory lap!,""Give Joe the Plumber a chance to vote!"). Regardless of the ad's contents, though, we've all learned by now to trust Obama's stewardship, a luxury that's probably the envy of the few remaining thinking Republicans.

But how are members of the traditional media digesting this total usurp of their inanity-echo chamber?

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Michelle Obama incites 10,000+ FL hopemongers! Pics & Video!

Michelle Obama was in my former hometown of Gainesville, Florida, this past Wednesday drumming up the early vote. In a backdrop befitting our distinguished next first lady, over 10,000 zealous hopemongers attended her GOTV rally at the historic landmark, the Hippodrome State Theater:

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The diverse crowd represented all walks of life and included everyone from students to seniors. The resulting imagery illustrated what most people recognize as the real America. The following picture, courtesy of Andrew Wise, of Wise Startup Blog, is a birds eye view of the largest crowd assembled yet for a Michelle Obama rally:

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Progressive Democrat Newletter Issue 187

Obama's ahead, but this week I focus, more than anything, on what you can do from home to win for Obama and win Senate and House seats. I also have many candidates highlighted in some 20 states as well as groups and events worth you attention.

Readership is up, particularly in states like Georgia and Colorado.

Newsletter below. Hope it is helpful!

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Another Smoke-Screen For Stealing the Election

It's very likely that on the morning of November 4, Barack Obama will be leading John McCain in the polls by a substantial margin.

If Republicans manage to diddle enough electronic voting machines and disenfranchise enough voters to "win" the election anyway, how will they explain away the polls?

The latest bright idea is being promoted by Alex Lundry, research director at the Republican polling firm, TargetPoint Consulting in a current article on Pollster.com, based on a 2007 article in Public Opinion Quarterly (link, gated).

Mr. Lundry says "blacks are more likely to overreport their registration (along with those that are better educated, live in the "Deep South", and have strong partisan beliefs). The implications of this are particularly relevant to this year's election polls, as the authors detail in this critical point:

If the level of registration overreporting is comparable today, as we believe it is, this subpopulation inflates the number of potential voters in pre-election surveys because they are typically based on samples of self-reported registrants. More importantly, if our finding that blacks are more likely to overreport registration than voting holds true today, as we think it may, this could skew the results of pre-election surveys, likely in favor of a Democratic candidate given blacks' historical affiliation with this party."

It isn't likely that Republican spin-doctors could use this "effect" to explain away as much as a five or six point discrepancy between the polls and whatever vote-count gets reported out of Ohio and Florida, but...

If Republicans can blame a two or three point difference on this variation of the Bradley-Wilder Effect, they may be able to account for another two or three points with the rest of their bag of tricks, and inaugurate John McCain and Sarah Palin on January 20, 2009. 

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Insider Advantage Poll: Obama Takes Georgia Lead From McCain

Insider Advantage Georgia released the results of a new poll that shows Barack Obama leading in the Peach State for the first time.

Their poll also points to a run-off in Georgia's hotly contested U.S. Senate race between Republican incumbent Saxby Chambliss and Democratic challenger Jim Martin.

Georgia Presidential Poll

Barack Obama (D) - 48%
John McCain (R) - 47%
Other - 2%
Undecided - 3%

Georgia U.S. Senate Poll

Saxby Chambliss (R) - 44%
Jim Martin (D) -  42%
Allen Buckley (L) - 2%
Undecided - 12%

[Source:  Insider Advantage Georgia, "Senate Race, Presidential Race Both Toss-Ups In Georgia", October 24, 2008]

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