Something amazing is happening in Philadelphia, which will have repercussions far beyond our fair city. As the result of a remarkable confluence of the progressive movement / open left, an extremely smart and hard working campaign, local media endorsements, and even some local business interests, Michael Nutter is on the verge of becoming the next mayor of Philadelphia. In the course of just six weeks, every single poll shows him rising from the back of the pack into at least a statistical tie. Now, with only six days until the election, the most recent poll actually shows him in command:

May 9th, 385 RVs, April 5th results in parenthesis
Nutter: 31 (12)
Knox: 21 (24)
Fattah: 13 (17)
Brady: 11 (16)
Evans: 3 (10)

Now that is some rapid poll movement. It is so rapid, that one would be mistaken to assume that Nutter had the race locked up. Still, there is a huge amount of momentum at Nutter's back. It has been fueled by great campaign ads, an extremely hard working candidate, a large volunteer base, the endorsement of every single major local media source that has made an endorsement, the endorsement every single local progressive / reformer organization that has made an endorsement, and even by (!) by many members of the local chamber of commerce. In the last few weeks, everything in the campaign seems to be coalescing in Nutter's favor. Consider the following paragraph from the latest poll memo:

There's more...

The latest Keystone poll (PDF) is out on the Philadelphia mayoral race, and while it is good news for Tom Knox, it is also clear he has not achieved the knockout blow I, and at several other election watchers, had been expecting.

3/28-4/3. 364 RVs. MoE 5.1 (1/31 numbers in parenthesis)
Knox: 24 (22)
Fattah: 17 (26)
Brady: 16 (8)
Nutter: 12 (12)
Evans: 10 (10)
Unsure: 21 (22)

BooMan has more on the poll. Overall, there is not much movement over the past two months. What movement there was simply put Brady's number more in line with his results in other polls. Knox's momentum seems to have decidedly slowed, and with a high number of undecideds and a lot of soft support all around, there are openings for other candidates. Not huge openings, mind you, but definitely still openings.

I think what is really dragging down Fattah is anemic fundraising and a resulting lack of presence on the airwaves. I actually haven't even seen any ads for Fattah yet, even though I have seen ads for all other candidates. He might go back up if he can increase his visibility.

Nutter just went on the air last week, and this poll has a very low percentage of young voters (only 16% under the age of 35!), so I am inclined to believe that his numbers have decent buoyancy. I should note that I donated $50 to his campaign recently, and I expect that my ward, the 27th, will endorse him. But that doesn't mean I don't like the other candidates, or would be unwilling to work with them after the campaign, or on other issues.

There is a real divide in the reform / progressive community in Philadelphia between Fattah and Nutter (and, to a lesser extent, Evans and Knox). Mike Connery had an interesting diary at MyDD earlier in the week that I think summarizes the basic lines of this divide:

As I've been considering the place of - or more frequently total lack of - organizations whose mission it is to reach out to, engage, and elevate young people of color in our politics, I've started to think a lot lately about the divide between two major progressive constituencies: those who understand political activity through the vocabulary and history of social justice movements, vs. those who consider themselves to be part of a new progressive movement.

This new progressive movement seeks to work within and transform the system. It is party-based and electoral. During interviews for my book, a couple people pointed out to me that a lot of political terminology and basic concepts that we in this movement take for granted - including the term progressive - are either alienating or just nonstarters among a lot of young people of color. Instead, young people of color understand politics through a language based in community organizing, human rights, civil rights, and social justice. That is a language the progressive movement rarely embraces. Worse, its a language that the Democratic Party - our chosen vehicle of change - almost never embraces.

In my experience, I think this is basically true, and such a divide absolutely does exist. In Philly, in the political circles in which I operate, the social justice types tend to be for Fattah, while the progressive movement types, including myself, tend to be for Nutter. A piece I wrote back on Sunday, Institutionalism and the Progressive Movement, goes a long way toward explaining, at least in the abstract, why I eventually chose Nutter (in fact, as you might notice at the end of the piece, I wrote that article with an explanation of my Nutter endorsement in mind). In a broad sense, I just really feel like Nutter is the best choice to engage in the types of intra-institutional fights the progressive movement is already deeply engaged in here in Philadelphia. By way of contrast, over at Young Philly Politics, Dan explains why it seems he has come down on Fattah's side, very much in terms connected to the idea of social justice. I disagree with Dan's definition of philosophy. What I really think he is describing is a difference in management style and bureaucracy organization, as both Nutter and Fattah think government should help the poor, just different parts of government. Nonetheless, I think Dan's post and my post are a decent explanation of the social justice vs. progressive movement divide Mike outlines.

The two groups can, and often do, end up working together, as this is something of a natural alliance. Many people probably move somewhat freely in and out of both groups, and have a real affinity for people on both "sides." However, there are also moments where the two groups break apart, as I think we saw in the blogosphere over the Iraq Accountability Act, as we can see in the Philadelphia mayoral race, and as we saw in 2003 between Kucinich supporters and certain types of Dean supporters. In the end, I'm not really sure if this is even a big problem, or if there is any need to somehow merge the two groups. I do at least think it is interesting to discuss, and that it adds another wrinkle into any generalized discussions of the broader progressive political ecosystem.

Survey USA has the latest poll on the Democratic primary for Philadelphia mayor (3/9-3/12, 442 LVs, MoE 4.8, previous numbers in parenthesis):

Knox: 25 (22)
Fattah: 22 (32)
Brady: 17 (18)
Evans: 13 (10)
Nutter: 11 (8)
Other: 5 (5)
Undecided: 8 (4)

Tom Knox is almost certainly going to win this campaign (in Philadelphia, despite the 1999 fluke when it was close, the Democratic primary is the same thing as the general election). The money he is spending on television and a large ground game play an important role, but it is just as important that he is not an elected official from the city of Philadelphia at this time. People hate the administration in City Hall right now. Brady is stagnant and trailing in third place even though he has been an elected congressman from nearly half of the city for eight years, recently had 85% of the ward leaders give him their public endorsement, and is running several hundred thousand dollars worth of television every week (my ward was one of the few places where he did not receive the endorsement). Brady pulls virtually none of the black vote, literally no Asian vote, and trails Knox among white voters. This is important, because in Philadelphia race is by far the clearest determining factor in how someone votes in a primary. It is not really a surprise, since Brady campaign is being run largely by the same Fumo machine whose leader was recently indicted, and which is well known to generally oppose African-American leadership of the city.

Between now and Election Day, I do not expect any non-Knox candidate to show any substantial upward movement in this campaign. Just five months ago, Knox was at about 0% or 1% in the polls, and he just keeps rising. There just isn't any message any currently or previously elected official can use in Philadelphia to improve their standing at this point. Whatever flaws Knox may have, the reformer candidates for city council (virtually every incumbent has a challenger from the reform movement) would be smart to get on his slate, and even possibly endorse Knox, for mayor. I know that won't sit well with my friends at Young Philly Politics, given Knox's past connections to pay day lending, but he is going to win. Further, the machine hates Knox in a way they just do not hate or fear any other candidate (loathing toward Knox was quite palpable at the Philadelphia caucus at the last state committee meeting), which is a big plus for Knox in my book. I know that this is at least partially because urban machines still view themselves as defenders of the working class against powerful moneyed interests, but it is also because he poses a much more significant threat to the machine status quo than anyone else around. The machine does not defend anyone against powerful moneyed interests anymore. Hell, it can't even defend itself against Knox, and for all of its supposed on the ground prowess, Brady might not even be on the ballot.

As is also the case with quite a few of my progressive friends, I like Michael Nutter quite a bit, and I like Chaka Fattah too (I don't really know anything about Dwight Evans, and I have made my opinion of Bob Brady clear). However, in the short term, only Tom Knox can bring the Philadelphia machine down. So far, the reform movement has consistently run up against a very slight electoral deficit (see Seth Williams and Anne Dicker--Tony Payton Jr. won because of unusual circumstances in his district). If the reform movement wants to get over the hump and make its way into local government, right now I think Knox is the path. At least a temporary alliance can change this city for the better for a long time to come. The primary is quite close now--only nine weeks away. Quite frankly, our chances to win in Philadelphia might be now or never.

Update: I just received some information that causes me to retract much of what I said in this post. Specifically, Knox is endorsing at least one of the worst incumbents on city council. So, forget all of that. I am looking for a mayoral candidate with the guts to endorse, and help out, city council reform challengers. When I find a mayoral candidate who does that, then I have found the mayoral candidate I will support, whether it is Nutter, Fattah, Evans, Brady or Knox. Anyone who is willing to do that is someone I am willing to get behind. Right now, I only have enough patience, energy and time to work on campaigns that are larger than trying to get a single person elected.