It was a very good year for Democrats in both the House and the Senate.  Democrats in the House gained 30 seats using a combination of candidate funds and independent expenditures.  The largest sources for the independent expenditures were the national committees: the NRCC, RSCC, RNC, DCCC, and DSCC.  In at least one race, CA-11, the efforts and money of environmental groups paid off in ousting Richard Pombo.

Although, Federal Election Commission reporting (www. fec.gov) is not quite complete, a highly accurate picture of both national trends and individual races is clearly available.  Among the results so far, 55 Democratic challengers raised at least $1 million but slightly over 100 failed to raise $100,000.  About half of those who raised $1 million won but three candidates with smaller bank rolls managed to upset incumbent Republicans: Carol Shea-Porter ($287,197 with no help from the DCCC or any outside expenditures), David Loesback ($443,273 through October 18) and Nancy Boyda ($702,260 but significant late help from the DCCC of over $360,000).

Many individual Democrats were substantially outspent by incumbent Republicans and still managed to win.  These would include Chris Murphy of Connecticut, Carol Shea-Porter, and Joe Courtney.  I haven't done full work ups outside of New England but this is an important fact.  In 2004, virtually no incumbents lost and virtually no one with a money deficit managed to win.

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CT-04's Democratic challenger, Diane Farrell, took the national stage yesterday when she gave the Democratic response to Bush's National Radio Address.

What was most striking for me about her speech was her effective use of accountability language when making the case not only for her election to the House, but more generally for a Democratic majority. Only then, she argues effectively, will there be oversight and accountability in Congress.

She's been remarkably consistent with this message whether be her August 25 Hardball appearance, her debates with Chris Shays or this radio address. What's especially interesting about her message is the extent to which she seems to follow the recommendations of The Courage Campaign and MyDD's candidate memo for Democratic challengers. The purpose of the memo was to take what we learned from our polling in the CA-50th and apply it nationally.

Some of the recommendations:

Iraq must be central in your campaign and you must blame Republicans for it.

Oversight beats withdrawal

Pick a fight, any fight

And if there were one phrase that summed up the conclusions of the candidates memo, it would be as follows:

It's the accountability, stupid

Diane Farrell must have gotten the memo.

More over the flip.

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Thanks to dailyKos diarist dvogel001 whose diary alerted me to the first CT-04 debate between Republican incumbent Chris Shays and Democratic challenger Diane Farrell, which aired on CSPAN yesterday.

For a primer on the race, check out my first CT-04 diary.

The debate over the flip...

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As a former resident of CT-04 and as someone who voted for Republican incumbent Congressman Chris Shays long long ago, I have followed this race with particular interest. Shays stood up to the Republican leadership admirably during the impeachment circus but over the last few years, he has enabled this administration's failed war policy, lending credibility through his support. He has done little to stand up to the leadership and, certainly, as a moderate in a caucus dominated by conservatives, is impotent even with his seniority.

It's time for him to go and for his excellent Democratic opponent, Diane Farrell, to replace him in Washington.

More over the flip.

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(hat tip MyLeftNutmeg)

This is a good ad.  It hits Shays squarely where he's vulnerable, on Iraq and on his ties to Bush.  Shays has recently moved to the left on Iraq, but voters do not trust Republicans when they move left on this issue.  Farrell can simply point to Shays and his record, and demand that he denounce Bush, which Shays will not be able to do.

If Farrell keeps this up, Chris Shays could be in trouble.  I especially like the use of 'open-ended war'.  

Thank you Senator Lieberman, for running a horrible primary campaign.  Now Farrell can run on the war without you hanging like a chain around her neck.  Instead you get to weight down Chris Shays!

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