Some Montana & South Dakota Exit Polls

From Marc Ambinder:

73% of Clinton voters in South Dakota say they'd support Obama in the fall versus just 13% who say they'd support McCain. Still, 55% say they would not be satisfied if Obama were the nominee.

** In Montana, a quarter of Clinton voters say they'd vote for McCain and 52% say they're unhappy with Obama as the nominee.

From MSNBC, Clinton supporters in South Dakota overwhelmingly want Obama to pick her as his VP nominee 68%-28%; by a 56%-40% margin, Obama supporters want him not to.

Also, from Mark Halperin:

MSNBC: A majority of Montana Democrats said a candidate's ability to "bring change" mattered most to them. Read more.

ABC: About half of South Dakota voters, slightly more in Montana, say change is the main attribute they're looking for in a candidate.

We already know that Obama is probably going to win Montana and Hillary has, at worst, a shot at South Dakota and at best, if the ARG poll is anything close to reality, she's a shoe-in, but this is an interesting catch by Ben Smith on one thing that would happen in the event of a South Dakota win for Clinton:

If Clinton wins South Dakota, the senator -- who has endorsed Obama -- will supporter her, he tells a local paper.

Sheesh, wasn't really anticipating any Obama to Clinton switches tonight.

Polls close in South Dakota at 9pm Eastern (although most of the state, which is in the central time zone, just closed at 8pm) and in Montana at 10pm Eastern. In the scheme of things, probably a good thing psychologically for the final result of the night...the final result of this incredible nomination process...to be an Obama victory.

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Rep. Maxine Waters Switches From Clinton to Obama

A press release from the Obama campaign announces he is 12 delegates away from clinching the Democratic nomination. The superdelegate that put him there is a dramatic reversal:

Today, Congresswoman Maxine Waters (D-CA) endorsed Barack Obama for President. Waters switched her endorsement from Clinton to Obama citing his ability to unite the country and leadership on issues such as the housing crisis and war in Iraq.

Waters gave Clinton some serious anti-war cred in California and delivered one of my favorite talking points from a surrogate this year: "The people I represent have plenty of hope, they don't need more hope, they need help." I suspect Waters may be the latest in what may become a stream of superdelegate switches.

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Jimmy Carter For Obama

No shocker here, of course, but Jimmy Carter has confirmed he's on board with Obama and has been for a while:

Former President Carter says he'll endorse Democrat Barack Obama after the polls close on the final primaries.

Carter told The Associated Press on Tuesday: "The fact is the Obama people already know they have my vote when the polls close tonight." Carter spoke to the AP after addressing the Georgia World Congress Center.

Carter, a superdelegate, has remained officially neutral in the race but has offered high praise to Obama. Carter has noted that his children, grandchildren and their spouses back the Illinois senator.

Update [2008-6-3 15:37:49 by Todd Beeton]:I assume once Carter makes it official after the close of the polls tonight, he'll be counted in Obama's official delegate tally. As of now, the Obama official count is actually 30.5 to go to clinch the nomination. This number is a result of the 11 offical superdelegate endorsements announced for Obama today (8.5 superdelegate votes). DemConWatch has the details.

Update [2008-6-3 15:37:49 by Todd Beeton]:The Calitics kids tell me Jerry McCnerney just endorsed Obama, so epect him to be added to Obama's tally as well.

Update [2008-6-3 15:43:27 by Josh Orton]: And from a presser today, Harry Reid looks like he's ready to endorse...someone...and lead his caucus later this week:

QUESTION: What about for yourself, Senator? Are you prepared to endorse as early as tomorrow if the race is over tonight?

REID: I will set an example for the rest of the Senate like I try to do with everything. And something will be done this week by I think most or all delegates. They're about 18 in the Senate -- that's how many are left -- super-delegates.

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Negotiations

As Josh noted yesterday, The Huffington Post reported that

Obama and Clinton spoke Sunday night and agreed that their staffs should begin negotiations over post-primary activities, according to reliable sources.

So what sort of negotiations would this entail, exactly? According to London's Daily Telegraph, VP is not on the table but a cabinet position shepherding healthcare reform just might be (h/t FireDogLake.)

Hillary Clinton will be offered a dignified exit from the presidential race and the prospect of a place in Barack Obama's cabinet under plans for a "negotiated surrender" of her White House ambitions being drawn up by Senator Obama's aides. The former First Lady would get the chance to pilot Mr Obama's reforms of the American healthcare system if she agrees to clear the path to his nomination as Democratic presidential candidate. Senior figures in the Obama camp have told Democrat colleagues that the offer to Mrs Clinton of a cabinet post as health secretary or to steer new legislation through the Senate will be a central element of their peace overtures to the New York senator.

According one source, Obama's cabinet may end up being the real dream team.

Another Democrat who has discussed strategy with friends in the Obama inner circle said that Mr Obama was openly considering asking Mrs Clinton to join his cabinet, alongside two other former presidential rivals: John Edwards, who is seen as a likely attorney general; and Joe Biden, who is a leading contender to become Secretary of State. Mr Obama hinted at the plan last week. "One of my heroes is Abraham Lincoln," he said. "Lincoln basically pulled in all the people who had been running against him into his cabinet because whatever personal feelings there were, the issue was 'how can we get this country through this time of crisis?' And I think that has to be the approach that one takes."

Not sure if the report is to be believed, but assuming there is some truth to it, it's hard to tell which scenario Hillary Clinton would prefer -- to keep her senate seat or become a member of Obama's cabinet. Certainly both would allow her to be central in the fight for universal healthcare although the latter would allow her to focus on the issue exclusively. It will be interesting to see what Clinton takes away from these so-called "graceful exit" talks and whether her most ardent supporters view it as adequate.

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The Last Gasp of Realism in the Democratic nomination process

(Totally speaking for myself here).  

Man, I am so ready for this primary to be over.  No doubt, I want an end and want it to be soon!!!

I couldn't pass on the latest posts, though, about Bill Clinton.  

Obamabots seem to be going off the deep end here, in talking as if Bill Clinton were a stupid old man.  I disagree.  He knows exactly what he's doing.  I think (and take it for what it is worth - as I take everyone elses' ramblings), that Mr. Bill is trying to force his wife onto the ticket.  I find this to be perfectly acceptable, considering the extremely flawed caucuses and that Clinton has dominated the second half of the primary season (thus rendering, at best, an inconclusive verdict and clearly showing a certain element of buyers remorse amongst Dem. primary voters).  

I don't know if any of you have ever actually worked on a campaign before.  I'd like to know if you have.  So many avid Obama supporters seem to, unfortunately, have a political tin ear; so much so, that I'd be surprised to find out that many of you have actually worked on a political campaign.  Please let me (or ALL of us know) if you have.

To "slime" Bill for saying the "movie" thing is totally, completely intellectually dishonest of you.  When someone says, "I've seen this movie before", they don't literally mean they've seen a specific movie before.  It is a figure of speech.  

Obama et al, according to any reasonable understanding of Bill's statement, clearly saw their lives flash before their eyes.  For the last time (and, in my opinion, many many many months too late), they had a 'Trinity Church' incident one-too-many and finally decided it was time for Obama to publicly split from the church.  They witnessed the horror of what this "new" pastor was saying in that highly publicized sermon  - while at the same time they were (I'm sure) stunned by Obama's pathetic approval ratings among white women, which were very publicly shown to be a measly 43%.  

Sorry if I break from your cult orthodoxy and dare speak my mind:  Obama has a real problem and stands a gargantuan better chance of losing the general election than Hillary Clinton.  Some of us, very much, depend on not having another rightwing lunatic on the Supreme Court and don't share your affinity, fantasy of annointing your cult leader as the Democratic nominee.  

Hillary Clinton is dead in the water; yet, you people act as if you have the daylights scared out of you.  You seem scared to death she might pull something off.  And that's even though her most avid supporters are giving up hope as I write this.  

Ya'll in the Obama Cult would do your cause a much greater service by following your cult leader and heaping praise on Hillary.  He has a mighty force of paid political consultants and his message is very much market tested.  The only way he can win is if Hillary Clinton gives him the go-ahead - and throws her support behind him.

I know that ya'll on the left-leaning blogs and those among the talking/bobbling heads in the mainstream media have convinced yourselves that Hillary Clinton is out there on that branch alone.  You are so terribly, patheticlly wrong.  There are almost 20 million people out there with her.  95% of whom are lifelong, avid Democrats.  If she wants to take it to the convention and make it the dog fight (I think) it should be, then we are there with her..  Barack Hussein Obama is, according to the NYTimes, "Wheezing" across the finish line.  Clearly, Clinton has won the second half of this primary and there is a clear case of buyers remorse among Democrats.

If she doesn't decide to pull a knife and if Obama has the 'audacity' to snubb her and not offer her VP, then good luck Democrats.  Your rules have allowed a complete and total lemon to obtain the nomination.  When he loses, I'm sure a great many of you will cry "Swift Boat!" But, the fault will lie with you and not Republicans.  It will lie with you and your self-righteousness, with all of you who were so willing to walk the plank to fulfill your political fantacies.  

For the life of me I cannot understand why rank-and-file Democrats are such p*ssies!?!?!?!?  Can anyone enlighten me?

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