(Also at Nevada Progressive)

OK, I have some good news and some bad news for you. Let me start with the bad news. A new poll out today still show a close race in Maine.

And the good news? Democracy Corps shows No on 1 taking a 50-41 lead!

There's more...

There's been some disagreement on the left as to the wisdom of going after Rush Limbaugh. My view has been that portraying the GOP as the party of Limbaugh is a winner because it will create an irreconcilable divide between conservative and moderate Republicans leaving nowhere for moderates to go but left. The new Democracy Corps poll seems to bear this out.

On virtually every question the great majority of the mainstream rejects Limbaugh's ideas and vision of the Republican Party, which severely constrains Republican elected leaders...Conservative Republican voters, however, embrace Limbaugh, giving him a very high favorability rating; they say he shares their values and urge Republican leaders to defend him when he is criticizing President Obama.

Remarkably, voters view Limbaugh negatively by a two-to-one ratio (53 to 26 percent), with nearly half the country, 45 percent, viewing him very, very negatively. Among independents, the ratio rises to three-to-one. Meanwhile, Limbaugh's rating has deteriorated among moderate Republicans since November's election, with his unfavorability rising from 37 to 46 percent. More important are the values that Limbaugh espouses. By a nearly two-to-one ratio (57 to 32 percent) of voters -- and independents -- say Limbaugh does not "share their values," but Republicans are in a different world where, by two-to-one, they believe he shares them.

The opinion of moderates is the key here and the increased focus on Limbaugh does appear to be informing their opinion of the party at large:

Still, 62 percent of voters, including a similar percentage of moderate Republicans, say that the Republican Party is embracing the "same old ideas and leaders it has relied on for the past 20 years" rather than seeking out new leaders and fresh ideas.

This is not just about one man, this is about the core values of the Republican Party; making Limbaugh the poster boy of those values has revealed them for what they are: radical and out of touch with the mainstream, something we've been saying for years.

There's more...

You'll recall that after the first debate on Sept. 26th, CNN had a comical headline: "Debate Changed Nothing!" or something like that since their poll of polls apparently showed no movement in the days following the debate. Looking back, though, we actually see that Obama's baseline average lead in the tracking polls before post-debate polling began was 5.5% and once all three days following the debate were factored in on the following Tuesday, his lead was up to 7% and would climb to as high as 8.5%. But was that movement due to Barack's debate performance? It's hard to tell since external events intervened in that time frame that may be more likely to have impacted the race. But there is one thing most people seem to agree on: while his first debate performance may not have moved voters into Obama's column, it went a long way toward "reassuring" voters who may have had doubts about him.

Democracy Corps found this in the focus group of 45 undecided voters that they held in St. Louis, MO after the first debate. While an equal number of undecided switched to Obama and McCain post-debate, Democracy Corps found a distinct shift toward Obama in the underlying questions. From their  polling memo:

A look at the underlying numbers shows that Obama made important gains that could endure through Election Day. These undecided voters had a strong positive reaction to Obama on a personal level. Before the debate, just 40 percent viewed Obama positively, but this skyrocketed to 69 percent after the debate - a remarkable 29-point gain that left him more personally popular than McCain despite this group's conservative leanings. He also made large strides on being seen as independent, from 44 percent to 65 percent. And in head-to-head matchups against McCain, Obama made significant gains on who "shares your values" and is "on your side."

Their conclusion:

Tonight's first Presidential debate is not likely to fundamentally change the dynamics of the race, but Barack Obama went a long way towards crossing an important threshold on national security, and in the process made important and impressive gains on key personal measures.

Contrast this with their findings from the post-debate focus group they held in Henderson, NV last night:

Like the last debate, these voters felt that Obama was the winner of the debate (38 to 30 percent), but this time the debate also shifted their electoral preferences. After viewing the debate, 42 percent of these voters said they would support Obama if the election were held today, while just 26 percent would support McCain.

Now, a couple of things may have contributed to this, such as the partisan breakdown of the groups (the first group leaned slightly more heavily Republican) and topic (most of the first debate was supposedly on McCain's turf) but I found this excerpt from Democracy Corps' analysis telling:

The voters who shifted toward Obama saw clear differences between the candidates that were as much about personal qualities as issues. Obama was seen as sincere and in command of the issues, and voters repeatedly complimented his positive demeanor and willingness to answer questions directly. McCain, by comparison, was seen as evasive, insincere, out of touch, and above all else, negative. These voters were really frustrated with McCain's `nastiness,' saying it reinforced Obama's contention that McCain represents more of the same old Bush-style politics. On the issues, health care, foreign policy, and energy independence were the issues where they saw the greatest distinctions between the candidates and clearest evidence that Obama has the right ideas and understanding to move the country forward.

Whether it be Obama's steadiness or the contrast in their personalities or Obama's continued mastery of the issues, there seems to be a detectable shift from "reassuring" voters to winning them over.

So, it will be interesting to look at the tracking polls over the next few days. As Jonathan noted earlier, the baseline pre-debate is Obama by 7%. This time, if we see a perceptible shift in the polls day after day, it will be difficult to attribute it to anything other than the debate and my gut is that we will.

There's more...

One of the perks of being in person at an event like the Big Tent and the DNC Convention in general is getting access to some really cool events you can't get to anywhere else.  No, I'm not talking about the after-parties; those actually tend to be fairly lame, imho.  I'm talking about the really informative morning and afternoon sessions where activists have the opportunity to learn things you can't get elsewhere.

Today, the New Leaders Council (not in any way affiliated with the odious DLC) put together a lunch meeting where a pollster from DemocracyCorps (Greenberg) presented for the first time their latest Mountain West polling data, just made available here on their site (PDF only).  It's an awesome wealth of material that confirms what most of us DFH bloggers have been saying for a long time: Obama is our best candidate with great coattails; there is no "Hispanic" problem; the best way to win swing voters is to play to progressive strengths; and John McCain has a serious uphill road to hew in the Mountain West.

There's more...

So the Democrats are anti-military.  That's what Democracy Corps is saying in their latest survey.  And that's why McCain leads, even though their poll has no head-to-head numbers.

http://www.democracycorps.com/strategy/2 008/04/national-security/?section=Analys is

Here's what stands out:

"Indeed, the area where Democrats are having a problem is relatively limited; it is not on "soft power" or "hard power," it is mostly just on "fire power" - perceptions of how a
Democratic president would handle the military, particularly in a crisis.
▪ Democrats now trail by 29 points (28 to 57 percent) on the question of which party would do the better job "ensuring a strong military." Last October, this deficit was
only 22 points.
▪ Similarly, by a 27-point margin (54 to 26 percent), voters see Republicans, more than Democrats, as the party that "respects the military."
▪ And by 21 points (50 to 29 percent), voters say that "not decisive enough in a crisis" describes the Democrats more than the Republicans."

There's more...