by Todd Beeton, Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 07:58:30 PM EDT
Today was primary day in Washington State. Polls closed at 8pm PDT and voters went to the polls to vote in a wacky primary that narrowed the fields of all statewide elections down to the two top vote getters for the November general. So what that means is that we're going to see mini-general proxy election results in both WA-08 between Rep. Dave Reichert and Darcy Burner and in the gubernatorial race between sitting Democratic Governor Christine Gregoire and Republican Dino Rossi.
If you haven't been following Matt Stoller's on the ground coverage over at Open Left you should. Tonight, he's liveblogging results.
You can find them streaming at the WA Secretary of State website HERE.
So far, as of 8:42pm, after Reichert's home county of Pierce County reported, Reichert is ahead of Darcy by just 3 points.
Dave Reichert 47.27 Darcy Burner 44.27
Notably, Reichert can't break 50%, and only barely did so in his home county. The sitting congressman in a low turnout election where the Republicans are the ones motivated to GOTV to avenge Gregoire's narrow win over Rossi can't break 50%. This I think speaks to the enthusiasm gap that Darcy has over Reichert, her excellent GOTV program as well as the fact that she's the only one on the air in the district.
But the numbers can still move as absentee ballots, of which there are many in Washington State, still have yet to be counted. I'll update as results continue to come in.
Update [2008-8-20 0:8:26 by Todd Beeton]:One thing that seems to bode well for Darcy: while the candidates are not listed by party affiliation, they are listed by what party they "prefer" and so far tonight, the "prefers Democratic Party" candidates have a slight majority with 50.03%.
by Todd Beeton, Sun Aug 17, 2008 at 12:06:28 PM EDT
Matt Stoller is on the ground up in WA-08 to cover Tuesday's mini-general election between Darcy Burner and Republican incumbent Dave Reichert. The election is actually a primary, but since general election foes Dino Rossi and Gov. Christine Gregoire in the gubernatorial race and Burner and Reichert in the WA-08 race will be on the same ballot on Tuesday, it's the closest thing we have to a preview of November's general election.
The purpose of the primary is to winnow the field of candidates in races across the state to two people who will appear on the November ballot.
In most cases, the outcome from Tuesday's vote is in little doubt.
Rossi and Gregoire are shoo-ins for the November ballot because of their name recognition and well-funded campaigns. So are Reichert and Burner in the 8th district.
The Times does warn against reading anything into Tuesday's results.
Although more than a million people are expected to vote, the primary shouldn't be viewed as a trial run for the general election. Experience suggests a large proportion of the voters will be party loyalists. Many independents will sit out the primary.
"That's not a good indicator of the state," said Matt Barreto, co-director of the Washington Poll, a public-opinion survey sponsored by the University of Washington. "Especially in Washington, where the largest identification is independent."
But the fact is, a win is a win and if the unexpected happens -- i.e. Dino Rossi beats Christine Gregoire or Darcy Burner beats Dave Reichert -- the narrative could change, which could impact momentum, fundraising, media coverage, etc. That is why Rossi and Gregoire are pouring millions of dollars into what is expected to be a low turnout primary and it is why Matt Stoller is urging people to do what they can to help GOTV for Darcy on Tuesday.
[Reichert's] staffers don't express any worry about this Tuesday's mini-general election, seeing it as irrelevant. It's hard to tell if that's because they don't really care how it turns out or if Reichert doesn't have the money to compete, having been outraised for six quarters in a row. Regardless, the gubernatorial election is going to pull Republicans out on Tuesday, so Reichert doesn't have to worry about GOTV. At the same time, Darcy's the only one up on TV and she's putting out attractive twelve page mini-magazines with articles targeted at female voters. Pretty smart stuff.
This Tuesday's blanket primary is pretty significant for the race. If Darcy wins, she can finally put a win on the board and psychologically change the narrative of the race. Reichert will have his money cut off as he'll be seen as a loser. If Tuesday sees a tie or a Reichert lead, the narrative will remain as it is, a toss-up or slight advantage for Reichert. I don't know if the Obama campaign or outside groups are planning to help Darcy's campaign, but this is a turnout game, so volunteers and GOTV work would be useful right now.
If you're in the area, you can help Darcy GOTV HERE. You can also give to her campaign over at ActBlue.
State Sen. Rodney Tom (D-Medina) has withdrawn from the race for U.S. Rep for Washington's 8th District. Seven weeks ago, Tom announced that he would run for the Democratic nomination to challenge Rep. Dave Reichert (R-Auburn), drawing ire from bloggers solidly behind Darcy Burner, the 2006 nominee. Tom is a former Republican state representative, but he switched parties in 2006 to challenge a Republican state senator and defeated him decisively in the rapidly bluing Eastside of King County.
Tom has endorsed Burner, saying, "Our fundraising was going great, but Darcy Burner's campaign has been phenomenal. Darcy has over 3,200 contributors, an incredible statement to her broad base of support." Indeed.
With an eye to the general election, Tom noted that his "purpose from the start was to replace the current congressman with someone who actually represents the values of the 8th District. Dave Reichert is completely out of step with the values shared in this district. Darcy Burner's campaign has proven they have the leadership, strength and momentum to win next November."
Darcy Burner is the anti-Bush Dog. Here she is on FISA:
And here is her Bush indebted opponent, Dave Reichert:
So, chip in some cash to Darcy. Already, more than 450 people have done so, to the tune of more than $18,000. Let's put more and better Democrats in Congress!
I continue visiting the House floor to listen to the Iraq debate. I've been reading a lot about history and, increasingly, about the institution of Congress; about men and women who served in the House and Senate during great moments in history. What a sense of motivation it gives me. I've been the reading the Doris Kearns Goodwin story of Lincoln and his war cabinet - a delicious work of history that I'm rationing, so I only read a few dozen pages a night to make it last.
Wednesday night I stopped by the House floor, and as luck would have it Dave Reichert, a Republican out of the Seattle area, invoked Kearns and her work on Lincoln as justification for the war and a rationalization for voting against the resolution.
jeromearmstrong Our Polarized and Money-Driven Congress: Created Over 25 Years By Republicans (and Quickly Imitated by Democrats http://bit.ly/ewXlXI #bblue