PPP poll out for Virginia: single-digit race

New PPP poll, via New Dominion Project:

               05/22   05/05   03/30   03/01   02/01
McAuliffe   29       30        18        21        18
Moran       20       20        22        19        18
Deeds       20       14        15        14        11
Undec.      31       36        45        46        53

Its getting closer, and can get closer, as I think it will. McAuliffe got a bump from going up on the air, Deeds has now followed, and is Moran next?

The overall trend happening in the VA Gov race:

Also, while almost all the polls have Brian around 20%-22% and Terry at 29%-37%, they're all over the place for Creigh, ranging from 13% (Research 2000) to 26% (SurveyUSA), with the PPP poll right in the middle. Who knows?

The analysis by Kenton Ngo, as well as Joel McDonald, are both worth reading up on. As for Deeds, well, his supporters like Waldo Jaquith are estactic today... but Moran supporters will have their day on June 9th.

The thing that I notice in this PPP poll is McAuliffe's sky-high negatives with the young and the Democratic base. Among voters younger than 45, McAuliffe's negatives are a whopping 53 percent. Among the voters that voted in either of the '05, '06, or '07 primary, McAuliffe has a 33% positive to 41% negative ratio. That's just abysmal.

Also among those same '05-'07 voters, the race winds up being:

Deeds     26
McAuliffe 23
Moran     21
Its the voters that only participated in '08, where McAuliffe has a strong lead (which gives him the overall advantage):
McAuliffe 34
Moran     20
Deeds     16
The sample of this poll has 52% of the electorate being those who only voted in the '08 primary, which is very high, and that favors McAuliffe. It's tough to see McAuliffe going any higher given he's already saturated coverage, and has such high negatives, which is why he depends on a group of voters outside the typical Democratic primary voters (which only he has had the money to influence for poll standing).

For Deeds, outside of NoVA, he captured undecideds that could go to McAuliffe or Moran with this bounce, but how does he get into NoVA where he trails so badly? It seems a stretch to think Deeds has a lot of upside in NoVA, given he has no presence or paid media in the region to date. Word of mouth of the conservative Democrat's endorsement by the WaPost is not going to be a viral typhoon either. But he's certain to go a bit higher than 11% you'd think.

Moran leads in NoVA (40%), but trails in third everywhere else. The good news there though, is that paid media is starting for him now, and its much cheaper to buy outside NoVA-- Moran has a lot of upside that's in reach during the last two weeks.

I could see this race having all three candidates in the 30's with the final margins.

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R2000 poll of VA Dem primary

Markos blogged the results from the R2K poll, in which McAuliffe has taken a fair lead:

Democratic Primary

Brian Moran (D) 22 (24)
Terry McAuliffe (D) 36 (19)
Creigh Deeds (D) 13 (16)

It basically mimics the other findings of the recent SUSA polls, that had McAuliffe at 38, then 37. Understand that McAuliffe was able, because of his fundraising, to start running ads and mailers, for the past two months.

The poll is terrible news for Creigh Deeds, because he began running heavy television two weeks ago, after laying off half his staff. For Moran, his numbers are hopefully in line for a bounce, with the campaign starting its running of ads this week. The best hope for beating McAuliffe is with a bounce by Moran with his ads and mailings now starting.

No doubt, Terry has a lead, but the fact that he has spent more money than anyone in VA for a primary ever, already, and that he hasn't been able to put this away, shows that he has a clear ceiling and Moran has plenty of room to grow his numbers and catch him by June 9th.

There's a trend beginning to show across all the polls that McAuliffe may be peaking too early, as his lead slipped from 16% to 11% from April to May, in the SUSA poll. With 29% still undecided in the R2000 poll, its still up for grabs.

We'll have one other poll out this week; PPP is due with results soon. I've read that it will show the race even closer, and it will also highlight the difficulty of polling the turnout for this election.

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Moran: the Truth about the McAuliffe Record

Here was the line in the VA Democratic debate that I live-blogged earlier, from Brian Moran toward Terry McAuliffe:
"You said you have created a hundred thousand jobs, but the truth is you haven't. You say you built five Virginia businesses, but the Washington Post said they were run out of your home and never created a single Virginia job. You claim you'll look out for people's jobs, but as a consultant to Global Crossing's CEO and as a Board Member of Telergy, you walked away with 20 million dollars while over 10,000 people lost their jobs."
All true.

Terry replied by preaching about how any discussion of his record was "divisive politics" and "personal destruction" to talk about his past.

Huh? It's his record! As Brian Moran closed out by saying: "We each have records that tell you not just how we will govern, but about our character as well."

The Moran campaign put out a PR backing up that quote with the facts about Terry McAuliffe's record mentioned above (in the extended).

This TV ad just went live in Virginia:

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VA Gov Thread

I'll be blogging here (and twittering) during the final VA Democratic Governor's primary debate.

Live video of the event is on the Washington Post.

btw, yesterday we launched the phonebanking tool on OrganizeVirginia.com, which allows supporters to call from anywhere, and get points for the actions too.

Update [2009-5-19 14:19:40 by Jerome Armstrong]:
This debate is sponsored by the Washington Post, they've got the whole front row of the press here. But, I can tell you already that its not as free-wheeling a debate as the Netroots sponsored one a few weeks ago, still over on UStream.
Update [2009-5-19 14:19:40 by Jerome Armstrong]:
Questions about jobs dominates the early going. The WaPost is also live-blogging: 2:10 p.m.: Okay, 10 minutes in and we're getting our first Moran push back to McAuliffe. To McAuliffe's claims that he's created 100,000s of new jobs: "C'mon, Terry." Seriously. Q: how many jobs has McAuliffe created in Virginia? Answer here.
Update [2009-5-19 14:51:29 by Jerome Armstrong]:
Back and forth on Marshall-Newman Amendment, Terry McAuliffe will claim he's for civil unions but then says he doesn't have the time to repeal the bad laws; "lets be honest" says Terry, more or less saying that civil union issues don't matter to voters. Equality for all does matter to voters though, especially in the Democratic Primary-- I think a bit more than McAuliffe thinks it does.
Update [2009-5-19 14:51:29 by Jerome Armstrong]:
On the issue of taking donations from Dominion Electric, its classic McAuliffe. He boasts about how he doesn't take their corporate money. What he doesn't tell you is that he takes money from Dominion Electric executives through fundraisers at their homes! Got that?
Update [2009-5-19 14:51:29 by Jerome Armstrong]:
McAuliffe is trying to say that its "devisive politics" to talk about his record of not creating any jobs in VA, and in fact walking away from companies like Global Crossing & Telegy with millions while thousands lost jobs. We know that McAuliffe was lying about creating businesses with jobs in Virginia. The Washington Post does a fact check: no jobs.
Update [2009-5-19 14:51:29 by Jerome Armstrong]:
Deeds finally goes after McAuliffe about the multiple promises that he provides on the campaign trail. Apparently, it includes things like a "gymnasium in Fredricksburg". Lordy. Terry says he'll fulfill the pledge.

Recap: The debate was just one hour, and the format of cutting off the candidates after what seemed like 15 seconds was horrible. It seemed tough for the candidates to get anything across. Aside from the back and forth, I came away from it getting a message from Brian Moran, along the lines of 'I have the Virginia experience to make the big changes' and from Terry McAuliffe of 'out of the box big ideas to solve the problems' but of Creigh Deeds, I don't recall a single memorable thing he said, and came away with no distilled campaign message. Deeds just doesn't cut through in another debate dominated by the back and forth between Moran and McAuliffe, while they both push across their campaign messages.

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Blogging the VA Gov race

I don't usually blog about the races and candidates that I'm working on (Brian Moran's), but since I also live in Virginia, I'm going to make an exception, and post about the contest in the coming weeks. This isn't endorsed or coordinated with the campaign.

I think it's fair to say that a majority of the bloggers and their readers in Virginia are backing Brian Moran, but Creigh Deeds and Terry McAuliffe also have their supporters. I have my own take on Terry McAuliffe, which began with 2002, and it pretty closely tracks the view that a lot of national bloggers have toward the guy who was the biggest obstacle of the Democratic Party changing, from 2000-2005, when we replaced him with Howard Dean.

McAuliffe, of course, went on to be the Chairman of Hillary Clinton's campaign in the next period of his life, where he helped run a pretty negative campaign against Barack Obama.

As an aside--losing is par for the course of Terry McAuliffe in Presidential politics. He's actually got a worse record than Bob Shrum! Except in '96, when Clinton ran for re-election, every primary candidate supported by McAuliffe has failed to win. In '80 its was Carter; '84 Mondale; '88 Gephardt; '92 Harkin; '00 Gore; '04 Kerry; '08 Clinton.

Anyway, a couple of months ago, McAuliffe started running these radio ads where "he takes credit for helping to elect President Obama last year". So, this past week Moran's campaign takes out ads on the same stations:

"Terry McAuliffe may have a lot of big money for his campaign, but don't let that hide the truth. The truth is, Terry McAuliffe led the campaign that ran the `3 a.m.' attack ad against Barack Obama. McAuliffe worked to put up the ads that questioned Obama's ability to be President. The fact is, if Terry McAuliffe had his way, Barack Obama wouldn't be our President today. McAuliffe even went on national TV and joked Barack Obama could, quote, `kiss my ass.' The New York Times put it best, saying `[Barack] Obama ran against exactly the kind of big-money 1990s politics that McAuliffe has come to represent.' We need to stand against McAuliffe's big-money politics today. Brian Moran has been fighting for our community for decades.  Brian Moran will take on big- money Wall Street politics and fight for our streets as Governor."

In the Hampton Roads version: "Locally, Chair of the Legislative Black Caucus Kelly Alexander urges you to vote for Brian Moran for Governor. We can count on Brian Moran."

In the Richmond version: "Locally, Richmond Mayor Dwight Jones urges you to vote for Brian Moran for Governor.  We can count on Brian Moran.

Now, I'm not a candidate, but that hasn't stopped the press shop of Terry McAuliffe from pushing out oppo of some of the words I had about Barack Obama in the '08 primary.

Now mind you, I was not on anyone's staff nor did any consultant work, and just posted as a pull-it-out-of-my-you-know-where blogger. I could never discern a single policy difference between Clinton and Obama and that's panned out. Clinton seemed more likely to win the GE, but Obama did it, so a terrific ending. I think there's a higher bar for someone on the staff, as compared with a bloggers words. But nevertheless, if I turned around and bragged here on a blog post that I was a key reason why Obama won, I'd expect to get whacked back pretty hard. But not Terry McAuliffe? I don't think so.

Teacher Ken seems confused on a couple of those points.
If the standard for condemnation is negative remarks about Obama and/or his supporters, then it is hard to see how the Moran campaign can continue to use the services of Jerome Armstrong, whose vitriol towards Obama and his supporters has been noted by many across the blogosphere. I have already noted several well known bloggers who have tweeted on Twitter their displeasure with these ads, and their unwillingness to consider voting for Moran in the primary. I am hearing through a variety of media of people saying how this kind of ad against a fellow Democrat is raising questions in their minds about their ability to support Brian in the general should he gain the nomination.
First, how there is some sort of relevance between what I posted as a blogger and what Terry McAuliffe says as a candidate is a bizzare stretch in any world. Second, I didn't go on national TV and joke Barack Obama could Kiss My Ass, and I didn't run ads taking credit for Barack Obama winning either. Ben Tribbett smells racism as work:
Releasing this on African American radio stations, but not stations targeted towards younger audiences smells a little like race baiting to me- why else only target this to African Americans?
Ben, was it "race baiting" when Terry McAuliffe ran his targeted ads on those same urban stations where he took credit for Obama getting elected? What nonsense.

I love primaries. I'll take a look at the conservatism of Creigh Deeds next post.

Update [2009-5-18 10:7:20 by Jerome Armstrong]: CNN's Peter Hamby, for those that want more details, McAuliffe blasted by rival:

The new attack is especially pointed because McAuliffe has gone to great lengths to model elements of his gubernatorial campaign after Obama's, which won Virginia in both the Democratic primary and the general election. In March, McAuliffe's campaign ran an ad on black radio stations proclaiming: "In 2008, our voices were heard when we elected our president, Barack Obama." But Moran's new ad claims that, "if Terry McAuliffe had his way, Barack Obama wouldn't be our president today." Referring to a light-hearted appearance by McAuliffe on The Daily Show last June, the ad says that "McAuliffe even went on national TV and joked Barack Obama could, quote, 'kiss my ass.'" The McAuliffe campaign called the ad "false and misleading" and accused Moran of "trying to divide Democrats again, especially at a time when we all need to come together to help President Obama get the economy back on track." The campaign said McAuliffe "fought tirelessly" for Obama after the primaries ended.
That's rich.

If you want to help nominate the progressive candidate in the contest, Brian Moran, we could use your phone-banking help over on Organize Virginia.

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