This Tuesday voters in Virginia and New Jersey go to the polls to vote for Governor. But the way that the media is portraying it, you'd think there's a special election in these two states on President Obama's agenda. News stories have been out for months about what the results of Tuesday's elections will have on the Obama agenda. The media seem to suggest that Tuesday's elections will be a precursor to the 2010 mid-term elections.  

In Friday's Wall Street Journal, Karl Rove wrote that if Virginians do what it looks like they might do and vote for Republican governors in Virginia, a state that Obama won in 2008, and "[if] Republicans also win the races for lieutenant governor and attorney general by five points or more, it will strengthen the case of those predicting a GOP "wave" in 2010."

While New Jersey's Governor's office looks like it will stay in the hands of Jon Corzine, polls suggest that the Virginia voters will elect a Republican to the Governor's mansion for the first time since 2001. Virginia, which was solidly Republican state, has elected two Democratic governors, voted Republicans out of control of the statehouse and has two Democratic Senators in Jim Webb and former-governor Mark Warner. So doesn't a Republican Bob McDonnell win Democrat Creigh Deeds spell disaster for the Democrats momentum in Virginia and the national Democrats chances in 2010?

The answer is no.

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Creigh Deeds

Bob McDonnell

Here are four ads currently running in Virginia. Each is a 30 second spot. The top two are from the Creigh Deeds campaign and the bottom two are from Bob McDonnell, the Republican candidate. The Deeds campaign continues to trail in the race by near double-digits. It is thus not terribly surprising that the Deeds campaign is focusing on attacking Bob McDonnell in his ad campaign while McDonnell avoids mentioning Creigh Deeds altogther in his ads. Which ads work for you?

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Connect with the Democratic nominees for Governor in the 2009 races in Virginia and New Jersey.  Consider this an open thread.

Creigh Deeds for Governor of Virginia	Deeds Website	Deeds Facebook	Deeds Twitter	Deeds YouTube	Deeds Blog	Deeds CONTRIBUTE
Jon Corzine for Governor of New Jersey	Corzine Website	Corzine Facebook	Corzine Twitter	Corzine YouTube	Corzine Blog	Corzine CONTRIBUTE

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Right out of the gate, Rasmussen Reports has released a poll taken Wednesday night showing newly-minted Democratic gubernatorial nominee Creigh Deeds leading Republican Bob McDonnell 47-41.  No doubt, these numbers may be a bit inflated in Deeds' favor, it being a one-day poll taken as Deeds enjoyed glowing press following his come-from-behind primary victory.  Nevertheless, given that the last Ras poll matching up Deeds and McDonnell showed McDonnell leading 45-30, these are welcomed numbers.  Deeds also enjoys a slight favorability edge over McDonnell according to the poll, with Deeds at 59-27, compared with McDonnell's 52-28.

Deeds and McDonnell have, of course, tangled before, with McDonnell barely edging Deeds by a hair in the 2005 Attorney General race, the difference being 323 votes out of over 1.94 million votes counted (yes, just 323 - no, that's not a typo with zeroes missing).  So this will be very close.  This first poll, though, refutes the inevitability meme that McDonnell was hoping to spread.

After losing the NY-20 special House election and losing a Senator to a Party switch, the GOP is reeling.  Losing VA-Gov, which they are expecting to win comfortably, would be a major body blow heading into the 2010 calendar year.  So get on the Deeds bus!  Visit his website.  Join the Facebook group.  Follow Deeds on Twitter.  Subscribe to the e-mail list.  Oh, yeah, and please contribute!

If you need to know the type of Republican we're facing in Bob McDonnell, visit TheRealBobMcDonnell.com for all the dirt (and share that URL with anyone you know who lives in Virginia, has friends and family in Virginia, might move to Virginia, etc.).  If you're looking to pigeonhole McDonnell, the best description is that he is a Pat Robertson disciple.  Yeah.  So it would be awfully swell to keep him out of the Governor's office.

Remember: the 2005 Deeds-McDonnell race was decided by 323 votes out of over 1.94 million votes counted.  This race will be exceptionally close.  Every single dollar will make a difference.  Every single minute spent volunteering will make a difference.  Republicans will be favored to win this right up until Election Day.  However, if Democrats in Virginia and across the country are able to contribute time, money, and resources, we can flush the conventional wisdom down the toilet and deliver yet another embarrassment to the Rush-Newt-Cheney Republican Party and another loss to the Michael Steele RNC.

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Now we know the answer to that question: Not Virginia.

Though I have to admit that playing a role in the defeat of Terry McAuliffe feels sinisterly good, there's nothing worse than working on a losing campaign, election night. It'd been a while since I had to feel that sting of defeat-- since losing while working for Howard Dean in 03-04. Over the past 3 cycles and about a dozen candidates I've worked for to elect in primaries and GE elections, it was all winning. Last night felt like Iowa in '04 with Dean again.

But the online campaign for Brian Moran had it successes. Yea, we torpedoed McAuliffe, but we also developed a social activist platform at OrganizeVirginia.com that added the activism of personal fundraising pages on ActBlue and online phonebanking, alongside social networking & groups and blogs. OV was a huge success for online mobilization around Moran's campaign. We'll have more progressive candidates using the platform soon enough, along with SEIU. WSG just hired another stellar Rails developer to push the activist platform even further-- yes, eventually, leading here to MyDD.com

As for the Moran campaign strategy, I think we were a bit shocked at how shallow the support for McAuliffe was in depth, and rather than going nuclear on him for a couple of months, both online and throughout the media, a more short-lived and stealth strategy could have sufficed.

The Moran campaign definitely took its eye off of Deeds while taking down McAuliffe. Ultimately, there was a swing group of about 15% that wanted, above all else, to defeat McAuliffe, and when the momentum and polls started breaking for Deeds, those voters strategically swung behind his candidacy without little regard for the issues.

There's a really well-written post that describes the difficulties ahead for Deeds vs McDonnell, from 2005, Attorney Generals Race. I'm sure we'll have time to delve into it more in the coming months.

The campaign of Creigh Deeds was very well run. While Brian Moran's campaign did the grunt work of taking out Terry McAuliffe, they watched and waited. Yes, they got a huge stroke of luck with the Washington Post endorsement, but luck is only half the equation of a win like this to occur. The Deeds campaign took the opportunity and executed a perfect strategy. Congratulations to all those involved in the Deeds campaign.

Now, Creigh Deeds, lead the Democratic Party to victory in Virginia in 2009!

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