Time to start digging on what the freshmen defectors were saying in October 2006 and what they are saying today.  Those who were consistent in supporting Bush's failures deserve a challenge for supporting a disaester.  Those like Congressmen Altmire and Rodriguez who seem to be playing the vast majority of the Democratic Party and its most fervant supporters for chumps and fools need a serious reality check.  Primary challenges, and fundraising cut-offs are the two strongest measures.  A barrage of phone calls and LTEs are the softer measures that might have impact.  

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What a wonderful end to the election season! And truly unexpected. I am actually a little glad that I was so horribly wrong about both LA-02 and TX-23, since my head was getting a little big after by scary-accurate predictions of the House back on November 7th. I needed to be reminded that elections are ultimately unpredictable--which is one of the reasons why you need to fight tooth and nail until the end. Here are some thoughts on Crio's victory tonight:

• Democrats now have 233 seats in the 110th congress, more than Republicans have had since 1952. the Republican "revolution" never secured this large a majority in the House. We beat them. We did better than they ever did. So much for the vaunted Republican political machine, which recorded record voter contacts, record fundraising, and record early voting this cycle. With their best effort, we beat them harder than they ever beat us. With FL-13, we could make our total in the House 234.
  
  
• This seat is Ciro's to hold until redistricting. He beat an incumbent pretty badly tonight, and now he is once again an incumbent Democrat from a majority minority district. With Latinos making up ore than 50% of the registered voters in this district, this one isn't going back to Republicans for a long time. Considering Ciro's strong voting record, the TX-23 will be a cornerstone of a blue majority for a long time to come.
  
  
• The first news source in the nation to call the election? Burnt Orange Report. How cool is that? Local blogging is the way of the future, and Burnt Orange Report has always led the way when it comes to first-rate local blogging. Their prediction was not based on partisan leanings, either. Rather, it was based on hard analysis of where the where the early votes were coming from.
  
  
• Speaking of blogs, how odd is it that both Crio Rodriguez and Henry Cuellar will be in Congress next year? Didn't see that one coming. Henry Cuellar might also take a lesson from Crio now--no need to be conservative in order to hold now a district in Texas. We bloggers might also take a lesson too--just because we think the reason a candidate lost becaue he was a poor campaigner, doesn't mean we were right. Ciro won this race easily, even though few us in the blogerati thought he had a chance. And so another netroots candidate wins, even though we did not back him like we should have in this election.
  
  
• Take that, Republican vote suppression tactics. Holding this election on a Mexican holiday was probably designed to drive down Democratic turnout. Instead, it sent Democratic turnout well beyond Republican turnout. To quote Nelson Muntz: "ha-ha." It should also be a lesson to those progressives who think that Republicans are perfectly adept at stealing elections: we are not facing an all-powerful force that can manipulate time and space. Here is a clear case where Republican attempts to swing an election utterly backfired.
  
  
• How's that Dailykos / MyDD / Swing Sate Project page looking now? Eight challengers will be in Congress next year. One other, Ned Lamont, rocked the political world with his primary victory (and the vast majority of money we raised for him came in the primary). Five others--Darcy Burner, Eric Massa, Larry Kissell, Gary Trauner, and Linda Stender--came within 1-2% of victory. Consdering that we only targeted candidates who, at the time of our endorsement, were considered second tier challengers, that is pretty fucking amazing. Our second tier target list performed at least as well as the top-tier target list of most party committees and advocacy organizations (DSCC excluded). I look forward to continuing to confound the experts next cycle.
  
  
• You want to know why pundits will continue to call this a conservative victory? Because so many politicians and media types have spent so long sucking up to conservative institutions--K Street and the Republican Noise Machine--that turning back now and calling this election cycle a progressive victory would means years, if not decades, of wasted investment. People who owe their access and their careers to conservative institutions are not about to throw everything away because one of measly election. We will only achieve a progressive America when politicians and media types are spending more time sucking up to progressive institutions--academia, unions, even the blogosphere--than they are to conservative institutions. Quite frankly, it is a miracle that we managed a progressive majority with the institutional forces lined up against us. That miracle was found in people-power.

Woo-hoo! Victory is sweet. It is almost sweeter when it is unexpected. Well done, Representative Rodriguez. It is great to have you back.

[Update from Matt: I will just say that I didn't know this district at all and didn't see this coming, but it's just awesome to capture number 30. Rahm Emanuel made a gutsy and good call to work this district with a lot of resources. He should get credit for this one.]

The early numbers look good out of Texas-23 according to the Associated Press.

Democratic former Congressman Ciro Rodriguez held a strong lead Tuesday over Republican incumbent Henry Bonilla as they battled for a congressional seat in a runoff election.

With more than half the precincts reporting in the state's largest district, Rodriguez was leading Bonilla 57 percent to 43 percent.

More details to come...

Update [2006-12-12 21:49:39 by Jonathan Singer]: With 55.43 percent of precints reporting, former Democratic Congressman Ciro Rodriguez leads incumbent Republican Henry Bonilla 30,408 (56.84%) to 23,089 (43.16%).

Update [2006-12-12 21:53:29 by Jonathan Singer]: With 67.42 percent of precints reporting, Rodriguez's lead is up to 32,243 (57.25%) to 24,077 (42.75%). The Burnt Orange Report says it's in the bag and it appears they may be right.

Update [2006-12-12 22:5:14 by Jonathan Singer]: The AP calls it for Ciro.

Former Congressman Ciro Rodriguez defeated seven-term Republican Henry Bonilla in a runoff election Tuesday, adding another Democrat to Congress.

Update [2006-12-12 22:19:19 by Jonathan Singer]: With 79.40 percent of precincts reporting, the numbers are tightening -- but not likely enough to put Bonilla over the top. Currently, Rodriguez holds a lead of 35,239 (55.38%) to 28,398 (44.62%).

Update [2006-12-12 22:46:22 by Jonathan Singer]: And with 95.13 percent of precincs reporting Rodriguez is up 37,250 (54.54%) to 31,044 (45.46%).

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The final election of the year takes place tonight, in the Texas 23rd congressional district. Oddly enough, it features Ciro Rodriguez, who was also featured in what amounted to the first general election of 2006 back on March 7th. In that election, for TX-28, no Republican was running, and so the Democratic primary between Rodriguez and Henry Cuellar was, in effect, the general election. For the second time in two years, Cuellar defeated Rodriguez. However, when Texas was ordered to partially redraw its congressional maps over the summer, Rodriguez then filed to run in the new, more Democratic and heavily Latino TX-23. With that background out of the way, here are some quick thoughts on 2006's final Election Day:

• The final public poll on the race shows Republican Henry Bonilla ahead 51-47. This is a slight tightening from 53-46 last week. Both polls were conducted by Survey USA.
  
  
• The main difference between the two polls is that in last week's Survey USA, the Anglo--Latino breakdown was 59%--36%, and in the latest poll it is 53%--39%. I have said it before and I will say it again: Rodriguez wins if Latinos make up 45% of the electorate or more. In a district that is 65.1% Latino, on the surface it looks as though that will not be a problem However, I do not know what percentage of the voting eligible population Latinos represent in the district, nor am I aware what percentage of registered voters they make up in this district. Both figures are probably significantly lower than 65.1%.
  
  
• Expect low turnout. I mean, an election on December 12th? That is both very late in the year and, I believe, taking place on a Mexican holiday. The latter could be particularly damaging to Rodriguez's campaign. It also doesn't help that Republicans seem to have early voting locked down in these special elections. We saw it in OH-02, CA-48 and CA-50. Francine Busby narrowly won on Election Day back on June 6th, but early voting in the district skewed Republican and so she lost. I fear we will see much of the same in TX-23.
  
  
• Overall, I predict Bonilla to hang on, 53-47. However, this is a very winnable sat for 2008, even if we fail this time around. Overwhelmingly Latino areas of the nation such as this can be won if new voter registration and engagement programs are raised above the level of vaporware. Even the entire state of Texas could be a major Senate battleground in 2008 if the Latino vote can become increasingly mobilized. That was, after all, one of the promises of the great marches last spring: Latinos, Asians and immigrants would become a rising power in American politics. The Latino shift toward Democrats in 2006 was a major factor in the Democratic victory, but as of yet there has been little benefit to a rising generation of progressive Latino candidates. It would serve as a nice coda on the 2006 election cycle to see that change tonight.

This is a thread on TX-23. What are your predictions and thoughts?

Former President Bill Clinton, former HUD Secretary Henry Cisneros, and and Rep. Charlie Gonzalez campaigned Sunday for TX-23 nominee Ciro Rodriguez. Clinton's appearance at the GOTV rally for Tuesday's special election attracted a large crowd of screaming supporters.

http://bluesunbelt.com/showDiary.do?diar yId=50

[Links to videos on YouTube of Clinton and Cisneros speeches]

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