by Todd Beeton, Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 06:21:25 AM EST
This is interesting. Just got a fundraising ask from Chuck Schumer asking for help delivering a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate. Included in the e-mail are some public polls of the 9 most competitive Senate races (Virginia and New Mexico excluded.) Below are the 7 most competitive of those:
Mark Begich 58
Ted Stevens 36
Jim Martin 46
Saxby Chambliss 47
Bruce Lunsford 48
Mitch McConnell 48
Al Franken 42
Norm Coleman 38
Ronnie Musgrove 46
Roger Wicker 47
Kay Hagan 53
Elizabeth Dole 44
Jeff Merkley 51
Gordon Smith 43
While the chosen polls no doubt pick the best of the bunch for Democrats, they tell most of the public polling story:
- post-indictment, Begich rises to double digit lead over Stevens
- Merkley and Hagan running away with it in the end
- Martin in a dead heat with Chambliss
- Franken up within a few points over Coleman
Which brings us to those Mississippi and Kentucky numbers, which, while certainly bullish, are actually not that far outside of the Pollster.com trend estimates (Musgrove performs +4 better than Pollster and Lunsford performs +3.1.)
Personally, I'm predicting we'll win 8 seats by tomorrow night with Georgia set for a run-off to determine that 60th seat, but the picture Schumer is painting here is one in which 60 true Democratic votes, i.e. without Lieberman, is a distinct possibility. And as unlikely as it seems now, I keep thinking back to 2006 and how unlikely it was that we'd get that 6th seat.
You guys really rocked our Road to 60 ActBlue page and I can't tell you how much we appreciate it. A total of 317 supporters gave $26,312 to our Road to 60 Senate candidates. Now, if you'd like to continue to help our Senate candidates reach that road to 60, I'd recommend donating directly to the DSCC. From Schumer's e-mail:
I assure you that every dollar you send to the DSCC before 9:00 PM tonight - even as little as $5 - will be rushed out immediately to campaigns in the closest races with the greatest need. They'll use your money to make certain that every Democratic vote is counted. Any amount can make a real difference.
Give right now and a group of Democratic senators will triple your contribution, meaning your $5 goes three times as far bringing voters to the polls. That's the only thing that matters.
[editor's note, by Todd Beeton]I mistakenly referred to these polls as "internal DSCC polls." They are not. I've revised the post accordingly.