9 Bailout/Economy Lies and Deceptions

It's been pretty busy the past few days in the MSM and on the blogs with regard to commentary about Wall Street and our economic bailout.  Herein, I hope to provide a little clarity for those believing everything they're reading. There's a lot of misinformation being spewn...and from some of the highest levels, too.

But, as the saying goes, "The Truth Is Out There." In fact, it's right here!

So, without fanfare, here are "Nine Bailout/Economy Lies and Deceptions We're Hearing Right Now:"

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Goolsbee Explains Why Unemployment Is Actually 17%-18%

At 8:30AM this morning, the U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will, once again, attempt to deceive us in their efforts to maintain the quickly evaporating "national calm," when they announce that our nation's unemployment rate is, most likely, somewhere between 7.9% and 8.1%.

We'll also be told (actually, we're already being told) by the MSM that: "U.S. February Job Losses May Have Been Largest in Six Decades."

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ADP January Jobs Report: Another 522,000 Jobs Lost

ADP, the provider of 1 in every 6 payroll checks throughout the U.S. private sector, issued their January 2009 Payroll Report an hour ago, and it demonstrates a projected decline of 522,000 jobs on a month-over-month, seasonally-adjusted basis, comparing January '09's numbers versus December '08. Despite the supposedly positive spin that some media outlets may try to pin on this information (i.e.: "...less than projected," etc.), the reality is more inline with a direct quote from the first few paragraphs of today's report:


Sharply falling employment at medium- and small-size businesses clearly indicates that the recession continues to spread well beyond manufacturing and housing-related activities.

Due to the report's sheer sampling size, many find it to be a more accurate reflection of U.S. joblessness than the "official" numbers from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics ("BLS"), expected out within the next week. The full ADP report may be found here: "ADP January 2009 National Employment Report."

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Forbes: 42%+ Monthly (January) Fortune 500 Layoff Spike

If Forbes Magazine's monthly "Layoff List" feature (see links, below) is any indication of the upcoming unemployment figures for January, 2009, it is more than likely that "official" Federal Bureau of Labor Statistics' unemployment numbers for January '09 will be pegged somewhere in the 15%+ range* when they're disclosed in February. The official December '08 Bureau of Labor Statistics' "U6"* unemployment rate was 13.5%.

*=Federal "U6" unemployment statistics. During the Clinton administration, the previously-publicized "U6" unemployment statistics were modified to omit discouraged workers (those seeking employment for more than a year), and underemployed workers, and the "U3" results (reflecting those Clinton-era modifications) have been publicized ever since. The government continues to report U6 results along with U3 results, on a monthly basis, however. This diarist would advise all readers to checkout John Williams' guidance on all of this over at his Shadow Stats website.

We'll have a pretty clear picture of just how bad our country's unemployment rate has spiked, overall, when ADP issues their monthly jobs report on Wednesday morning, February 4th. Federal labor statistics follow ADP's numbers roughly 10 days later.

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1/9/09: Horrific jobs/economic news, bite-sized version

President-elect Obama's stimulus package--which more than one MSM outlet has described as a little bit of something for everyone--is concurrently and quickly being widely perceived as short of the mark by many liberal economists.


Obama Warns of Irreversible Decline Without Action

By Julianna Goldman

Jan. 8 (Bloomberg) -- President-elect Barack Obama warned that without immediate steps by the government to revive the economy, family incomes will drop, the unemployment rate could reach "double digits" and the U.S. risks losing a "generation of potential and promise."


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