It's been shaped up as a two-way race for the Mayoral race in London, between the incumbent Ken Livingston and the Conservative candidate Boris Johnson. I've been rooting/working (read, disclaimer...) for the alternative, Liberal Democrat candidate Brian Paddick.

Paddick is still in 3rd place in the latest poll (44-37-12 on the first preference), but his "serious about London" slogan has been able to increasingly  frame the candidacy of Boris Johnson as the opposite:

I can't imagine that Londoners will elect Boris Johnson as Mayor, but obviously, the majority wants an alternative to Ken Livingston. Given the way it works in London though, with second preference votes ("Under the London election system, voters are allowed two choices. The lowest-scoring candidates are eliminated and the second preferences of those who voted for them are then taken into consideration."), it's going to be very close, and Livingston might still be favored. The election is May 1st. A second poll has it at 45-44-9 for Johnson, Livingston, Paddick.

Labour, in general, is in a potentially painful spot heading into the next elections. What's propelling the Conservatives? For one thing, they've effectively neutralized the oldness that the Tories have been in the UK for a while now, by radicalizing their positions on the environment, painting environmental conservatism as a Conservative position. The fall of Labour provides a good opening for Liberal Democrats-- they can be in a pivotal position for 2009, when the next national elections will be held. The Lib Dems elected a new leader, Nick Clegg, over the winter, and have the potential to once again finish in the top two in the national projected share of the vote on May 1st.

There's more...