I’ve spent the last couple hours on the phone with friends who work on Capitol Hill, and it sounds like things are pretty set: Bill Nelson, Florida’s senior senator, will announce at a major press conference this afternoon that he is leaving the Democratic Party. It sounds like he won’t join the GOP but will caucus with them as an Independent.

A friend who works for the Senate Committee on Commerce, of which Nelson chairs (for now) a subcommittee, says the Senator is ticked off about what he sees as the partisan behavior of Democratic leaders and is scared that Republicans will win back the Senate this year. Although most political analysts think that’s slightly out of reach of even a GOP wave election, Nelson must not be taking any chances, though this seems an odd way to stay in the majority party.

Florida’s Nelson, unlike the chamber’s other Nelson, has never been known as a right-winger, but he’s no hardcore progressive, either. This is a shock no one saw coming, but maybe we should have. Nelson threatened to sue the DNC in 2008 over the Florida primary/delegates debacle. He calls himself the chamber’s leading expert on NASA, and NASA’s previous big defender on Capitol Hill was one Tom DeLay. He campaigned in 2006 as a bipartisanship figure and was ranked as one of the party’s five most conservative Senators that year (though his score has since increased, perhaps explaining why this move catches everyone off guard).

I, like most Democrats will be, am pissed. This is an outright betrayal of the voters who elected Nelson on the premise that he was a Democrat, and claiming that this will help him keep governing after November 2010 is a real crock. Democrats, especially after the passage of the health bill, have a much better chance this year than many give us credit for. And seriously, how nuts is it for a pro-choicer who voted for the health care bill to join the GOP now, with the Tea Party claiming even Utah’s Bob Bennett is too liberal? Nelson will probably join the Snowe-Collins wing of his new party, and that’s like suicide today. Duh. Having already lost MA-Sen it’s not like this is a big blow to our numbers, but I’m still pissed and confused. It’s betrayal and it’s stupid, pure and simple.

We’ll have more on this as it develops, but for now, I’ve got two concluding thoughts. First, it will be interesting to see what affect, if any, this development will have on Florida’s Senate race. One wonders if Nelson and Charlie Crist will start a third party together? And second, I’m sure Bill Nelson’s a great guy and a good Senator. With apologies to his staff for any heartburn these five paragraphs may have caused them...

Happy April Fool’s Day.

As expected, both proposed public option amendments to the Baucus bill failed in the Senate Finance Committee today. Schumer's went down 13-10, and Rockefeller's 15-8.

Democrats voting against the Rockefeller amendment: Chairman Max Baucus, Blanche Lincoln, Tom Carper, Kent Conrad and Bill Nelson.

Democrats voting against the Schumer amendment: Baucus, Lincoln, and Conrad.

Salon quotes Baucus: "The public option would help hold insurance companies' feet to the fire. But my first job is to get this bill across the finish line."

I agree with that statement from Baucus - passing a bill without a public option is better than sticking with the status quo - but I'm still crossing my fingers that the final bill comes from HELP or the House, or that a public option amendment from the full floor passes. No reason to give up hope or cut the activism.

Still, the bottom line Tuesday was that the bill was still on track to move out of the committee. That would give Democratic leaders the chance to merge it with a more liberal version passed by the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee. Schumer, a key member of Senate leadership, sounded optimistic that some careful negotiations could still save a public plan. And Rockefeller was positively combative. "The public option is on the march," he said.

There's more...

I've lived a third of my life in Florida, and I have a Love / Hate relationship with the place. (I have lived in 7 other States, and I hated all of them except Rhode Island).

I got a form email from my Democratic (sic) Senator Bill Nelson in response to my rather strongly worded email encouraging him to support the House Bill with specific attention to a PO.
I leave you to read it and feel my pain.

Dear Mr. Idiot:

Thank you for contacting me about health care reform. In his recent speech to Congress, President Obama also provided us with a clearer view of his desires for health care reform.

What the President described is pretty close to the draft of a bill I'm helping prepare as a member of the Senate Finance Committee. This legislation will let folks who are happy with their insurance keep what they've got, including veterans and seniors on Medicare. It will also create State-based exchanges - a nationwide marketplace - where those without coverage, or those who are unhappy with what they have, can get it at an affordable price.

The bill will hold insurers' feet to the fire, requiring them to cover everyone and preventing them from dropping someone who gets sick. Additionally, it contains several measures aimed at reducing overall medical and prescription drug costs and eliminating waste and fraud in the system.

I plan on improving the bill through amendments that will, among other things, help pay for reform of our health care system. One of my amendments would require drugmakers to provide rebates to Medicare, just like they do for Medicaid. This would save Medicare a ton of money and help reduce out-of-pocket prescription drug costs for many seniors. Further, by eliminating the tax break drugmakers get for TV and other advertising, we would see another $37 billion to pay for health care.

Regardless of where anyone stands on the specifics, I think we all can agree that the system we have can be unfair and too costly, and needs to be fixed. I appreciate hearing from you on this important issue. Please don't hesitate to contact me in the future.

Sincerely,
Senator Bill Nelson

Now, I think I'll take this Mango & Myers out to the pool and drown my sorrows.

There's more...

Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana announced plans in December to form an equivalent of the Blue Dog caucus in the Senate. Today his office rolled out the Moderate Dems Working Group:

WASHINGTON - A diverse group of 15 Senate Democrats today announced the formation of a new moderate coalition that will meet regularly to shape public policy. The group's goal is to work with the Senate leadership and the new administration to craft common-sense solutions to urgent national problems.

The Moderate Dems Working Group will meet every other Tuesday before the Democratic Caucus lunch to discuss legislative strategies and ideas. The Moderate Dems held their second meeting Tuesday to focus on the upcoming budget negotiations and the importance of passing a fiscally responsible spending plan in the Senate.

Leading the new group are Democratic Senators Evan Bayh of Indiana, Tom Carper of Delaware and Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas. Both Senators Bayh and Carper were successful governors before coming to the Senate. Senators Lincoln and Carper bring bicameral experience to the group as former members of the House of Representatives. All three leaders are honorary co-chairs of Third Way, a progressive Democratic policy group, and Senators Bayh and Carper have led the centrist Democratic Leadership Council.

At the working group meeting, Senator Bayh acknowledged that such a large group was unlikely to agree on all major issues before the Senate. Yet the Moderate Dems are joined by a shared commitment to pursue pragmatic, fiscally sustainable policies across a range of issues, such as deficit containment, health care reform, the housing crisis, educational reform, energy policy and climate change.

In addition to Senators Bayh, Carper and Lincoln, others joining the group are Senators Mark Udall and Michael Bennet of Colorado, Mark Begich of Alaska, Kay Hagan of North Carolina, Herb Kohl of Wisconsin, Mary Landrieu of Louisiana, Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, Claire McCaskill of Missouri, Ben Nelson of Nebraska, Bill Nelson of Florida, Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire, and Mark Warner of Virginia.

A few things jumped out at me:

15 members is a quarter of the Democratic Senate caucus. That's proportionally larger than the Blue Dog caucus in the House.

Look how many first-term senators have joined up with Bayh: McCaskill from the class of 2006 and Udall, Begich, Hagan, Shaheen and Warner from the class of 2008.

Of the Moderate Dems, only Bennet, Lincoln and Bayh are up for re-election in 2010. Lincoln and Bayh are not expected to face tough challenges.  

Of the Moderate Dems, only Lincoln, Landrieu, Begich and Ben Nelson represent states carried by John McCain. Why did the others rush to join a caucus that (based on Bayh's record) will try to water down President Barack Obama's agenda?

Back in December Matthew Yglesias advanced a very plausible hypothesis about Bayh's agenda:

With Republicans out of power, the GOP can't really block progressive change in exchange for large sums of special interest money. That creates an important market niche for Democrats willing to do the work. It was a good racket for the House Blue Dogs in 2007-2008 and there's no reason it couldn't work for Senate analogues over the next couple of years.

Bayh's press release includes a ludicrous quote from Harry Reid:

Of the working group's formation, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said, "If we are going to deliver the change Americans demanded and move our country forward, it will require the courage to get past our political differences and get to work. Established organizations like Third Way and new ventures like this group offer us a new opportunity to get things done, and I support every effort that puts real solutions above political posturing."

Raise your hand if you believe that Bayh's group is going to offer "a new opportunity to get things done."

The only good I can imagine coming of Bayh's venture is if the group gives some political cover to Democratic senators representing red or purple states, making it harder for Republicans to tie them to liberal bogeymen.

This optimistic scenario would pan out only if the Moderate Dems do not consistently vote as a bloc with Bayh. Earlier this month, David Waldman/Kagro X analyzed some Senate votes in which Bayh supported Republican amendments. If you click that link you'll see that various senators named in today's press release did not vote with the Bayh/Republican position.

For that reason, Waldman greeted today's news with a big yawn and doesn't seem worried that the Moderate Dems will do anything other than help Bayh show off how "moderate" he is.

The Russians say one should "hope for the best but prepare for the worst." As a Democrat who wants President Obama to succeed, I hope Waldman is right and the "Moderate Dems" are just using Bayh to bolster their "centrist" image.

On the other hand, if Bayh's group develops along the path envisioned by Yglesias, which I consider more likely, then Democrats really should prepare for the worst in 2010. The severe recession may make next year a tough environment for the president's party to begin with. If Democrats carrying water for corporate interests sink "the change we need," Democratic base turnout could drop significantly, as it did in 1994. Most of the Moderate Dems Working Group members will not face the voters until 2012 and 2014, but their obstruction could harm many other Congressional Democrats.

There's more...

Much to my delight, I just found the news that Senator Bill Nelson of Florida is proposing legislation that will get rid of our Electoral College and allow the people's will by a majority vote to the victor.

Included in the legislation is a proposal for Primaries, scheduled with in a later time period than we have been experiencing, especially this year, and that they be InterRegional Primaries, another thing I've been advocating for.  One, it enables the candidates to still conduct retail politicking, instead of relying soley on ad buys.  But also, me being the Global Warming and Energy waste person that I am, I see this to cut down on waste of traveling back and forth across the country, saving time, resources, energy and less pollution.  It's a win, win, WIN!

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