Arianna on Biden, w/ a bonus from Markos

Arianna over at Huffington Post has this 'quote' from Biden:

"Can I just clarify a factual point? How much will we spend this year on Afghanistan?" Someone provided the figure: $65 billion. "And how much will we spend on Pakistan?" Another figure was supplied: $2.25 billion. "Well, by my calculations that's a 30-to-1 ratio in favor of Afghanistan. So I have a question. Al Qaeda is almost all in Pakistan, and Pakistan has nuclear weapons. And yet for every dollar we're spending in Pakistan, we're spending $30 in Afghanistan. Does that make strategic sense?" The White House Situation Room fell silent.

And more from Arianna:
In Rethink Afghanistan, Robert Greenwald's powerful look at the war (and a film Joe Biden should see right away), Robert Baer, a former CIA field operative says, "The notion that we're in Afghanistan to make our country safer is just complete bullshit... what it's doing is causing us greater danger, no question about it. Because the more we fight in Afghanistan, the more the conflict is pushed across the border into Pakistan, the more we destabilize Pakistan, the more likely it is that a fundamentalist government will take over the army -- and we'll have Al-Qaeda like groups with nuclear weapons."

And former Senator Chuck Hagel, a Vietnam vet and Biden confidant, told Newsweek that, while "there are a lot of differences" between Vietnam and Afghanistan, "one of the similarities is how easily and quickly a nation can get bogged down in a very dangerous part of the world. It's easy to get into but not easy to get out. The more troops you throw in places, the more difficult it is to work it out because you have an investment to protect."

And doing so, as we've seen, usually means losing more and more of that "investment": each of the last six years of the Afghanistan war has been more deadly than the one before.

An excellent piece. We need more people speaking out, and Joe Biden should take it to the airwaves himself too. I never had much of an opinion of Biden as VP, but if he's the one that puts the fire under Obama to keep him from making the biggest mistake of his Presidency (by escalating in Afghanistan), he's golden in my book.

Also, bonus. Markos is pretty pissed off, "f**** liars" is a new one!  Here at MyDD, I get TR's for pointing out that a commenter was making up lies that I once supported an escalation of the military conflict in Afghanistan (utter BS), yet over at DKos, Markos gets to call out the Senate Majority Leader's office staff on the fp-- such double standards!

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Weekly Mulch: More Cash for Clunkers

By Raquel Brown, TMC MediaWire Blogger

The government-sponsored Car Allowance Rebate System, commonly known as "Cash for Clunkers," burned through $1 billion of funding within a week. Last night, the Senate joined the House in a decision to inject an additional $2 billion into the program before leaving for August recess. But is the overwhelmingly popular program a success or a failure? That's open to interpretation.

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The Difficulty of New Thinking on Afghanistan

I am the first to understand how hard it is to change thinking on policy in Afghanistan, because I am one who had to do this.  In a March 17 op-ed in the Wall Street Journal, Bret Stephens laments,

why are the people who cheered Mr. Obama [to raise the stakes in Afghanistan]...now running for the exit signs? Why, for example, is New York Times columnist Bob Herbert, the paper's reliably liberal tribune, calling Afghanistan a "quagmire" -- after denouncing the Bush administration in 2006 for "taking its eye off the real enemy in Afghanistan"?

During both the Kerry and Obama campaigns, I was one advocate for a pullout from Iraq and a shift of troops to Afghanistan.  It was a political argument as well as a military one.  

George Bush brilliantly conflated the Iraq War with the War on Terror.  It was necessary to pry apart this conflation.  My rebuttal was to remind folks that bin Laden had attacked from Afghanistan, not Iraq, and that this and the Pakistani mountains were the true front.  Anything else is singing Kumbaya.

Any presidential candidate who said: "Let's examine why we were attacked in the first place, and fix that" would have been dismissed as wanting to "have group therapy with terrorists."

Obama, wisely, gave no room to the far-right to accuse him of singing Kumbaya by wanting to withdraw from Iraq.  He wasn't retreating.  He was moving sideways. The attack was still on, just different.  It's a testament to Obama's political instincts that he positioned himself in this way. Kerry never figured it out, and tried to say both retreat and not-retreat from Iraq at the same time, leaving it to Bush's general unpopularity to eke out a victory.   Obama did figure it out, and said pull back in one place so we can attack in another.  The problem is, now he is really doing it.  

It's a problem because we know much more about the insurgency than when Obama was campaigning a year ago, and trying to ward off the dove label on national security.  The tragedy is we are now stuck in a paradigm as wrong as Bush's conflation of Iraq with the War on Terror, and as hard to shake loose.

It takes an effort to believe that not all Taliban are terrorists, and not all are driven by the radical Taliban ideology.  It took a lot of research for me to believe it.  But sure enough, what Afghans themselves were telling me, and what Joe Biden finally admitted, is true.  In Afghanistan, a country with 40 percent unemployment, where 50% of children are stunted from malnutrition, 70% of "Taliban" are itinerants who fight because it pays money to feed their families and it's the only job in town. About $8 day, a more than decent wage there.  

As I dug deeper, the more alarmed I became.  The evidence all pointed in one direction.  Reconstruction?   It never happened.  The billions were taken by contractors like Louis Berger Group, just as Halliburton did in Iraq, and precious little ever got to the Afghan people.  The sewage in Kabul to this day runs in open trenches, and on a hot day the stench across the city is unbearable.  Three-fourths of the country has no easy access to safe drinking water, and for this reason 1-in-4 children die before the age of five from preventable disease.  A full 8 years after the American occupation, of American responsibility, Afghanistan still has one of the highest infant mortality rates in the world.  Shame on us.  

The convenient talking point is that the Afghan government is corrupt, and millions disappear.  The less convenient one is, when the American contractors for building schools and bridges came in, Afghans sat back and watched how the big boys did it, stealing by the billions and not fulfilling their obligations.  

The comments I receive on my writings are understandable to me: "you'll never stop the Taliban from fighting by buying them off with ten-dollar-a-day jobs"; ""these are jihadists ready to die, you are naive." They are understandable because I was skeptical too, given the radical jihadist, death-or-victory paradigm.  But that's not Afghanistan.  

A 2005 ABC News poll showed that nearly 70% of Afghans approved of the US presence.  91% preferred the Karzai government to the Taliban.  And 56% saw the return of the Taliban as the greatest danger to the country.  These numbers have worsened as civilian casualties mount and economic misery is prolonged, although still only 5% of Afghans want to see a return of the Taliban.  The startling message is that we did not need to win hearts and minds.  We had them, and we are losing them.  

Skeptics say: you can't possibly tell me that if we create thousands of the simplest kinds of jobs in Afghanistan, that we can diffuse the insurgency? Cash-for-day-labor jobs clearing canals which were bombed-out by the Russians, clearing irrigation ditches, and improving roads with spades and gravel?  That we can pay $10 a day and lure men away from the Taliban, because the Taliban pays eight?  That's exactly what I'm saying.  And yes, it's hard to believe.  It's hard to believe a a lasting solution can be conceptually simple.  

Obama's Special Envoy Richard Holbrooke recently bemoaned the lack of U.S. knowledge on what drives Taliban recruiting.   "I am deeply, deeply dissatisfied with the degree of knowledge that the United States government and our friend and allies have on this subject... We need to make sure we know what the appeal of the Taliban is." But in Brussels just last month, Vice President Joe Biden had already answered Holbrooke's question, and affirmed that the appeal of the Taliban was that it gave men a way to feed their families.  Biden said: "Roughly 70 percent [of Taliban] are involved because of the money, because they are getting paid." Don't these guys talk to each other?

The latest attempt by a Blue Ribbon committees of scholars and experts to penetrate the presidential bubble of Obama's decision-making is a report from the prestigious Asia Society.  The co-authors include Dr. Barnett Rubin, Ambassador Thomas Pickering, and Ambassador Karl Inderfurth.  It is vigorous in recommending an abrupt change in course which includes:

--The development of a job creation initiative
 

--Combating narcotics by increasing employment through infrastructure projects.

 

Most notably, the report recommends that NATO "Integrate all troops and operations in Afghanistan under a single NATO-ISAF (International Security Assistance Force) command with a mandate to protect the population."

With a mandate to protect the population.  These are key words.  General Karl Eikenberry, former Commander of U.S. Forces in Afghanistan, told Congress in 2007, ""Much of the enemy force is drawn from the ranks of unemployed men looking for wages to support their families." If Biden and General Eikenberry are correct, then it follows logically, and the conclusion cannot be escaped, that by killing "Taliban" we are killing mostly young men whose main crime is not that they like the Taliban - they don't - but that they want to feed their families. This is the definition of a tragedy. 

What is more important than the number of troops is what their orders are.  The Asia Society's "mandate to protect the population" is the winning mission.  Rather than chase Taliban, those orders should be to stay put, protect people and work crews, and hand out day jobs and money.  

The Taliban, which now has a presence in up to 56% of the country, enjoys support a mile wide and an inch deep.  Chasing Taliban does play into one set of hands: Al Qaeda's.  In a tape released by bin Laden, he said that the goal for Al Qaeda in Afghanistan was to "bleed...America to the point of bankruptcy." 

"All that we have to do is to send two mujahedeen to the furthest point east to raise a piece of cloth on which is written al Qaeda, in order to make generals race there to cause America to suffer human, economic and political losses without their achieving anything of note,"
That "operation" just cost bin Laden two expendable fighters, but it cost the U.S. perhaps a million dollars.  A single Tomahawk cruise missile costs $850,000, then there is gas and wear-and-tear for helicopters, fighter jets, C-130 gunships (which fire $10,000 in ammunition in a burst) surveillance drones, Humvees, armored personnel carriers, not to mention human lives.  On both sides.  

If the military presence can be dovetailed into a massive job creation scheme focused on cash-for-work projects requiring no more than simple hand tools (there is no shortage of such projects in the country - ditch-digging for future water pipeline, basic rural road improvement) then a new counterinsurgency manual may be written.  Yes, there may be a small number of hard-core Taliban with Al Qaeda links, say 10 percent, who will understand nothing but being martyred.  The other choice is consigning them to irrelevance.  You can't be a commander if no one shows up.  

Analyses which place the emphasis on regional diplomacy, although important, cannot substitute for understanding what drives the insurgency in-country.  Moreover, regional diplomacy initiatives are slow on the uptake as planeloads of troops arrive at Baghram at this very moment, around-the-clock, and the fighting weather arrives.  

The cost of a massive cash-for-work program to act as the spearhead for real reconstruction?  We can't afford it, right?  The mind resists letting go of a paradigm.  The reality is that a robust job-creation program, for a year, could cost less than what the military spends in two months.  The amazing thing is not only is this a more productive approach, it's cheaper.  There are already a number of cash-for-work pilot programs in Afghanistan, in Jawzjan Province, Uruzgan, and Balkh Province, run by Action Aid, Mercy Corps, and USAID, respectively.  The USAID project involves the clearing of springs and removal of silt which clogs irrigation ditches.  The projects benefit the people in two ways: by providing "much-needed cash to families," and to help them "take better control of the irrigation system on their own land," says Abdul Qadeem Niazi, Senior Infrastructure Engineer for USAID.  

What causes the present course to persist?  Such a discussion, which might touch upon the profitability of war and President Eisenhower's exhortation to "beware the military-industrial complex," is outside the scope of this essay.  It is interesting to note, however, that Eisenhower once wondered why wasn't it possible "to get some of the people in these downtrodden countries to like us instead of hating us."

It is now time for Mr. Holbrooke, President Obama, and the administration to do their only real job.  As they fly around the world in airborne palaces at taxpayer expense, their only real job is to be right.

Ralph Lopez is the co-founder of Jobs for Afghans.
The co-founder is Najim Dost, an Afghan citizen and a recent graduate of John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard.

Please circulate and forward this to your congressmember and the White House.
LINK TO CONGRESS EMAILS.   LINK TO EMAIL WHITE HOUSE.

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Afghan War Could Be Over, Please Keep Pushing!

In perhaps the most significant breakthrough since the overthrow of the Taliban, Taliban Chief Mullah Omar has given his approval for talks aimed ending the war in Afghanistan.  A mediator for Saudi-sponsored peace negotiations, Abdullah Anas, said "A big, big step has happened. For the first time, there is a language of . . . peace on both sides."

The brother of the Afghan president Hamid Karzai, who has been attending talks on his behalf said,

"I have been meeting with Taliban for the last five days and I can tell you Obama's words have created enormous optimism. There is no other way left but talks. All sides know that more fighting is not the way."

The breakthrough comes days after Vice President Joe Biden in Brussels affirmed that ideology and anti-American nationalism were not at the heart of the insurgency, but poverty and the lack of jobs, saying:


"Roughly 70 percent [of Taliban] are involved because of the money, because they are getting paid."

Unemployment in Afghanistan is 40-50 percent, and the Taliban pays a wage to its fighters of $8 a day, which is a king's ransom in this wretched economy. 

The Obama administration's position of openness to negotiations comes after a fierce reaction to his announcement of sending 17,000 more troops into harm's way.  In a letter signed by key congressmen and spearheaded by the citizen's group PeaceAction, the signers pointed out:

"In a tape released in 2004, Osama bin Laden stated that al Qaedas' goal was to "bleed.. .America to the point of bankruptcy" in Afghanistan. He continued, "All that we have to do is to send two mujahedeen to the furthest point east to raise a piece of cloth on which is written al Qaeda, in order to make generals race there to cause America to suffer human, economic and political losses without their achieving anything of note. . . ."  We would do well to pay attention to these threats and to avoid falling into any such trap through escalation of our military presence in Afghanistan."


Among the signers are Republicans Rep. Walter Jones (R-NC), Rep. Ed Whitfield (R-KY), Rep. Roscoe Bartlett (R-MD), and Ron Paul (R-TX).  Among Democrats signing are Rep. Dennis Kucinich and Rep. Lynn Woolsey.

The situation is still precarious.  Today the Pentagon announced the deaths of 4 U.S soldiers in eastern Afghanistan.  AP reported:

The spike in violence along the border is a first indication that roadside bombs and other ambushes are likely to surge as thousands of new U.S. forces arrive in Afghanistan this year.

Despite the new hope, the Obama administration has yet to settle on an alternative strategy to lure poverty-stricken Afghan youths away from the arms of the Taliban.  Jobs for Afghans has proposed an immediate "Emergency Works Program for Victory in Afghanistan," which would immediately create employment for up to one million Afghans at little risk to foreign reconstruction personnel.  The plan would incorporate the advice of Russian officers with experience in Afghanistan, that the military mission be re-focused on protecting work crews, rather than chasing Taliban across the countryside.

Jobs for Afghans has created a Powerpoint/PDF presentation which it is attempting to put before all Congress members and the Obama foreign policy team.  
The presentation summarizes in the format of a briefing:


The Question: How do we employ, in a short turnaround time, large numbers of Afghan men who would otherwise join the Taliban for the pay?

Problems to Be Solved:

*Major works program is needed to frustrate Taliban recruiting, but construction is difficult in a hostile environment.

*Major changes in USAID reconstruction policy aimed at creating jobs take time. Bidding/contracting process needs to be overhauled ( see Jobs for Afghans Agenda.) But need for jobs is immediate, before Taliban Spring offensive can radicalize population.

Infrastructure Opportunities:

Three-fourths of population has no access to safe drinking water, a major source of high infant mortality and preventable disease. Most of country has no electricity. What do both of these key infrastructures have in common? Both depend on digging thousands of miles of trench to hold water and electrical "pipes." These are the foundations of development which benefits population.

Solution, An Immediate "Pre-Spring Offensive" Phase of Works Program:

*Focus on digging paths for "pipeline" infrastructure with hand-tools, meaning thousands of miles of trench which will carry basic water, electricity, and sewage pipeline, which is the foundation of rural infrastructure.

*Actual pipeline need not be laid immediately, but trenches can be dug using labor-intensive methods.

*Prioritize Kabul's unsanitary open-trench sewage system, potential to hire thousands of workers in easy-to-secure environment.

Project is Technically Feasible:

*Minimum requirements for trench-digging works program would be surveying and staking out trench-line, importation of hand tools.

*Only native supervision required, minimal technical skills. This minimizes exposure of foreign engineers needed for more complex infrastructure projects like bridges and other structures, which require more secure environment.

-Dovetail the Military Strategy, Focus mission on using forces to protect work crews rather than chasing Taliban around the countryside. Minimizes civilian casualties.

This is a sustainable model due to enterprising Afghan nature. Afghans are natural businesspeople. Infusion of capital to poorest segment will jump-start informal economy, as Afghans use funds to buy vendor stands, taxis, and other means of earning income, and distribute income through the tribal-clan structure to other Afghans.

Creating 1 million jobs at $10 per day for one year would cost about $2 billion. This is far less than the cost of the entire military occupation in Afghanistan for 1 month. This would significantly impact the 40 percent unemployment rate and begin work on much-needed infrastructure.

Jobs for Afghans is requesting that all who are interesting in keeping the movement toward peace going forward this and the link to the full presentation to their congress members.   LINK TO CONGRESS EMAILS.  LINK TO EMAIL WHITE HOUSE.

"Most Afghans, after the dispersal of the Taliban, were full of hope and ready to work. The tangible benefits of reconstruction --jobs, housing, schools, health-care facilities --could have rallied them to support the government and turn that illusory "democracy" into something like the real thing. But reconstruction didn't happen." ---Journalist Ann Jones, "The Road to Taliban-Land"

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Right Wing Phonebank Firm Run by Ex-Cons

Dan Reilly is the Republican candidate for State Representative in District 72. His opponent is incumbent Representative Amy Rice, a person who has distinguished herself as a progressive voice for Aquidneck Island. In 2006, Rice won a nail biter of an election against Republican John Robatille, who now works in the press office for Governor Don Carcieri.Despite the closeness of the last election, Reilly faces a number of issues making his race more of an uphill battle.

Those issues are multiplying.

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