Every week or so, Obama supporters try to spin their paper-tiger candidate's inability to close the deal with big states as irrelevant and surmountable.

The events of past 6 weeks have exposed Obama as a political lightweight without a clear strategy to accept the gift of presidency that is waiting for Democrats in November. If his single-issue platform isn't cause for concern then consider his troubling ties to known terrorists (Ayers), bigots (J. Wright), and charlatans (Al Sharpton).

Obama is marching the Democratic Party off the cliff and the so-called "young, first-time voters" (who are the most unreliable voting bloc) have buttressed this campaign from the outside, with no clear commitment to the Democratic Party. They just "like the guy."

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I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but after a long, fun ride, it appears that bittergate hasn't sunk Obama in the primaries or even ruined his chances in the general election. But though we weren't quite able to achieve victory, we still have made some important strides that we should be proud of.  We did really well in getting the msm (and especially Fox) to repeat our talking points, showed great message discipline in coordination with McCain, and were able to reinforce some key GOP narratives against Obama!  Any way you look at it, it was a great success!  But even so, this wave has now crested, and we need to start looking for some new trivial criticism of Obama that we can use to declare that his candidacy has completely self-destructed.

Fortunately, through our short but distinguished history of sounding the funeral bells for Obama, we have learned some great lessons, and the next "gate" will be even easier than the last.  With that in mind, I'd like to provide a few tips for how we can best achieve the next anti-Obama gate!

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From the beginning of this non-controversy, the now infamous words:

"You go into these small towns in Pennsylvania and, like a lot of small towns in the Midwest, the jobs have been gone now for 25 years and nothing's replaced them. And they fell through the Clinton administration, and the Bush administration, and each successive administration has said that somehow these communities are gonna regenerate and they have not.
And it's not surprising then they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy toward people who aren't like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations."

Actually rang true for me, and as a suburban, white, working-class, Church going, gun owner, I didn't understand why I was suppose to be offended. To me the words showed that Obama knows how important my guns and my Church (I'm a Buddhist, but I still call it Church) are to me, and that he was all for trying to connect with me, which I felt he has done ever since he started his campaign 15 months ago.
Hillary getting hissed and turned down at a union function (ever a place where other, white, small town, church going, gun owners are sure to be in attendance), where she mentioned "BitterGate", should make it clear that this is a non-controversy.
But if you still don't believe me, then just read the quote yourself. No where in the quote are the words; ignorant, racist, or xenophobic mentioned, and it would take a Pat Buchanan stretch of logic to find such words in it.
Obama wasn't calling me ignorant, racist, or xenophobic, but was instead trying to explain to a San Francisco crowd why I am passionate about my Church and my guns (because I can't count on the Democrats or the Republicans), and why I am bitter and frustrated, and why a lot of people like me express their frustration in ways that appear antipathy toward people who aren't like them or as anti-immigrant sentiments or as anti-trade sentiments.
BitterGate won't stick, because people who read Obama's words, without a judgmental mind, won't be offended.
The only people that have expressed a feeling of insult, have been the pro-Hillary die hards, and the pundits of the right, most of whom don't even live in small towns.
One of my close coworkers is a fervent McCain supporters, and the two of us have been following this election cycle with intense interest, particularly with an eye on who the next Commander in Chief will be. It is his opinion that it will be McCain, because he believes that McCain's opponent will be Hillary Clinton because, in his words, "Democrats are stupid and will nominate the worse candidate possible." Since January my coworker has been saying that Obama can't win the nomination, because the "vindictive, conniving, manipulative bitch" and her minions were eventually going to get something on Obama that she could use to say that Obama was not electable. At first he thought it would be Rezko, but when that didn't appear to pay off he thought it would be Michelle Obama, and when that didn't pay off he thought for sure it would be Wright. But when he saw BitterGate, he thought it paled in comparison to SniperGate, Bill's Salary from a Cayman-Islands-based-CorporationGate, and Penn-ColumbiaGate. But most importantly my coworker doesn't think McCain is going to have a easy time painting Obama as an elitist.
However, my coworker is convinced that Hillary Clinton and her minions are going to find something.

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As an observer of the last few weeks, I have to share some thoughts.  Four weeks ago, the fact was that Hillary was up by 20+ points, establishing a rather easy bar for her to limbo under.  All she had to do was maintain that lead or not lose any more than 5 points to meet the conventional and easy-to-quantify wisdom.  Many around mydd in fact did a fair amount of understandable chest thumping over the 20+ point lead, daring Obama to even consider beating Hillary.  I was very nervous.

I am an Obama supporter, believing that neither race nor gender have ANYTHING to do with how we should be selecting our next president.  We owe nothing to either candidate based on either shallow concept.  Both race and gender are mere happenstance...not a reason to infer whom is the best candidate.  Anyway, I know (as any honest student of politics and social science would tell you) that in order for Hillary to win, she needs to turn the 20+ point lead in PA into a 20+ win (maybe 15 would do), which in theory will propel her to subsequent 20+ leads and wins in IN, NC, and OR and the rest. That is the only legitimate path remaining for her to the nomination, and frankly, if she meets the threshold above...she'll deserve it and will get my support if she does.  

However, things seem to be in flux, to the detriment of this narrative.  In the last 3 weeks, Obama has closed the gap AGAIN.  By most standards/polls, he is within 10 points or so.

Why?

1) Obama's campaign is smart and agile.  He and his team had the wisdom to build and execute a great plan.  Key endorsements were gathered and announced, a highly successful bus tour was executed, and his performances on the stump have been excellent.

2) The Clinton campaign has been troubled; not even the most stubborn HRC supporters could deny this unfortunate fact.  The Penn disaster finally came to its predictable and sickening end. While that was good news for HRC, it is probably too damn late to make a difference (that fool should have been shown the door weeks and weeks before).  BUT, the Bosnia gaffe was truly a problem for her. For good, ill, or indifferent, that oft-repeated and self-aggrandizing yarn reminded many of the sort of things that we didn't like about the Clinton years; namely the not-so-honest (but creative) story-telling.

In concert, these are the reasons why the "bittergate" fiasco was so embraced and met with glee by HRC, her team, and her supporters.  It seemed on its face, to be a possible silver bullet, fatally wounding the competition with one brief shot.  Unfortunately, this silver bullet, like those before it (using Jeremiah Wright, Rezko, and Power as a means of attack), was a dud.

I respect Hillary, and loved her husband, but this is getting tiring. This is not about gender or race, but about being wise enough to see the forest for the trees.  Conservatively, if the balance of this process goes all the way through the to the end, Obama will have approximately 1925 delegates to HRC's 1700. This means that he needs only 33% of the supers to Hill's 67%.  That is just not going to happen..look at the list for pity's sake if you don't believe me...and let's not even discuss the notion that SOME of Hillary's SD's WILL defect at the end.  

The longer it goes on the more it helps McCain; a man who just earlier this very week declared he'd RATHER face Hillary than Obama (for obvious reasons).  

If Hillary was really smart about this, what she'd do is suspend her campaign NOW...or at least right after PA.

Why?  

1) She would be viewed as a truly magnanimous candidate and player.  She would engratiate herself with the Obama supporters and party elders/leaders who are growing impatient, if not didsdainful with the manner in which her campaign has and is behaving.

2)The numbers aren't going to change appreciably relative to delegates.  She would enter the convention with very nearly the SAME number (some Sd's might drop off, but it would be close)!  Should Obama implode or something tragic occur, she could enter the convention with her delegates, take advantage of number 1 above, and become the standard-bearer.

3) Most importantly, it will be easier for Obama to focus on McCain with his 40 million-dollar mountain of money.  The more $$ he is forced to spend on a protracted battle with HRC, the more money is NOT spent fighting the real enemy...the GOP.  Obama could campaign throughout the summer, leaving McCain in the dust.

I fear however..that this won't happen.  There seems to be no end to the desperation and slash and burn tactics that Hillary's team is capable of, and all too willing to use.  Sure, there is being a "fighter", but there is also being a counter-productive nincompoop... snark ahead:

Every time I see Hill these days I am reminded of "Fatal Attraction" when Glenn Close screams, "I WILL NOT BE IGNORED, DAN!!!!"

Lord, I feel like we are ALL Dan.  We, as progressives and the like-minded indies & enlightened GOP, have had our fleeting and passionate moment with Hillary...but it as in the movie, we, like Micheal Douglas, realize that the affair was a terrible mistake and must return to logic and our ideals.  

Please, please Obama folks...GOTV and get it within 10...PLEASE!..before she boils our pets!

Guns

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With the news of Obama's disparaging gaffe spreading like 'wild fire' across the country, Obama is playing defense in an attempt to ward off criticism that could potentially damage his candidacy for the Democratic nomination. If the news wires are any indication, then he is going to have a long and hard climb trying to explain to the American people what he "really" meant by those demeaning comments he uttered at a private-event held in San Francisco.

Obama's poorly chosen words are creating a furor, especially among 'small-town' rural and suburban voters. What is so disturbing about Obama's now "infamous" remarks, is not the context in which those words were uttered, but rather how Obama is handling the critical situation he is now faced with. Instead of denouncing his comments as "a terrible mis-statement" in the course of a campaign, he is defending his statements, and attacking his critics for attempting to make political 'hay' over the week-end.

There is no one better able to portray the meaning of the word 'bitter', then Barack Obama himself. Point in hand. It's now evident that he has trouble when it comes to dealing with controversies that surround him, and is unable to handle negative news that makes him look less like the "angelic" candidate that he portrays himself as, and more like a "demeanic" and "crazed" candidate, that is forced to backtrack on his statements in order to appease or pander to his supporters.

Now that he finds himself over a "hot stove" he is trying to divert attention away from his remarks and towards Hillary Clinton for criticizing him over his self-spoken insulting remarks. Obama seems to think that his remarks are a joke, or at the least is making a joke out of his remarks, as was evident yesterday, when he referred to Clinton, as "Annie Oakley- packing a six-shooter on the trail", in reference to her criticism of his 'Bitter' remarks made in San Francisco. Yet with all the rhetoric that is being made in recent days over this controversy, it now appears that the 'joke' is on Obama.

When new poll numbers are released this week, and people have had an opportunity to digest the context of his speech in San Francisco, we will then know what "legs" those poorly chosen words will have in the upcoming primaries, and when the time comes for superdelegates to decide on a nominee.

See: Most Voters Disagree with Obama Comment,

http://www.boston.com/news/politics/poli ticalintelligence/2008/04/most_voters_di s.html

For the time being, Obama has much explaining to do, as he tries to calm the debate over what he really meant by those now regrettable comments in San Francisco. At the very least, what momentum he may have had going into Pennsylvania's contest next week has been quenched.

Update: New Polling Indicates that Hillary has a double digit lead in Pa. Another poll shows she is maintaining her lead and has stopped any Momentum from her opponent. There is no good news for Obama in any of these latest polls.
http://www.nbc10.com/politics/15884424/d etail.html
http://wearecentralpa.com/content/fullte xt/?cid=6403

Furthermore, if the voters of America continue to talk about his political gaffe the way it is being portrayed at this moment, then Obama may just find himself standing on the "other side" of Pennsylvania Avenue after election day.

MSNBC-VIDEO

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/ 24106234#24106234

OBAMA'S 'BITTER' COMMENTS HALTS HIS MOMENTUM

http://www.usnews.com/usnews/politics/bu lletin/bulletin_080414.htm

OBAMA STILL FACING FALL-OUT OVER PRIVATE COMMENTS

http://www.allheadlinenews.com/articles/ 7010632115

BLUE-COLLAR DISTRUST OF OBAMA IN THE RUST-BELT

http://www.spiegel.de/international/worl d/0,1518,547227,00.html

OBAMA'S GARY HART BLUNDER?

http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/news/pol itics/blog/2008/04/obamas_gary_hart_blun der.html

Bittergate: Pundits Doubt Obama As Never Before

http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2008/04/bit tergate_pundits_doubt_obama_as_never_bef ore.html"

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