Some interesting local coverage/speculation/rumor mongering from the ground in Iowa regarding this weekend's straw poll:

From Iowa Independent:

You have to show two things to vote in the straw poll: an Iowa ID and a ticket. Tickets are $35, up from $25 eight years ago. While some are sold to the public, the vast majority are purchased by the presidential campaigns and distributed to supporters, who are bused in for the event. [...]

the hype is in the air, and the state party is estimating a turnout of up to 40,000 people. The Hilton Coliseum venue holds only about 12,000 people, so supporters of the different candidates will be shuffled in and out between the speeches. [...]

Rumors have been floating that smaller campaigns have quietly told their supporters to take advantages of Romney's largesse, ride his buses, and then vote for someone else. "We've heard those rumors, too," said Romney spokeswoman Sarah Pompei, "but we're focusing on having the strongest organization on the ground in Ames."

Century of the Common Iowan tells us why Ron Paul is toast:

I am here to tell you that Ron Paul won't do well at the Ames Straw Poll based on the fact that before this week Paul has only had 2 visits and spent 3 days in Iowa campaigning. [...]

To do well in Iowa you need to shake hands, lots of hands. Iowans don't decide on who to support by what they hear on TV and fewer rely on the internet, which is Paul's strength. [...]

The number of days Rep. Paul has campaigned dwarfs in comparision to every Republican candidate. As of August 3rd, Tommy Thompson has been in Iowa 60 days, Sam Brownback has been in Iowa 51 days, Tom Tancredo has been in Iowa 47 days, Mitt Romney has been in Iowa 44 days, and Mike Huckabee has been in Iowa 39 days. Even Rudy Giuliani and John McCain, who have been criticized for blowing Iowa off, have been here 16 and 17 days, respectively.

Iowa Values Not For Sale appears to exist for the sole reason to rail against Romney for paying GOTV consultants to rally support for him.

Mitt Romney is actually paying some of our conservative friends to support him in the straw poll and to convince us to support Romney despite his liberal record as Governor of Massachusetts.

Romney is paying `Get Out the Vote' consultants to try convince us that he is a real conservative.

These consultants have been paid anywhere from $500 to $10,000 per month to talk to us.

There's more...

The Ames straw poll of Iowa Republicans is just 2 days away and while a Romney victory is pre-ordained, the questions of by how much and who will take positions 2-5 add some suspense to the proceedings.

The Right's Field brings us a new University of Iowa poll that echoes the ABC/WaPo poll from Sunday showing Romney with a double digit lead in Iowa over Giuliani and Thompson who hold positions 2 & 3. But none of Romney's top tier rivals is challenging in the Ames straw poll although their names will be on the ballot. So with such expectations, how big does Romney's victory have to be to actually be deemed a victory? TRF's Paul Curtis brings us some context from The Politico:

But what exactly does Romney have to win by to win, or at least not lose, the expectations game? [...]

One marker that Romney's team is very conscious of, though, is what then-Texas Gov. George W. Bush achieved in 1999. He picked up 7,418 votes, besting his nearest competitor, Steve Forbes, who had 4,921 votes -- a 10 percent margin of victory.

That contest drew a total of 23,685 ballots -- right about what many in Romney's camp expect on Saturday.

That says to me that Romney needs to hold his nearest rival to well over 10 points to leave the straw poll showing strength. In fact, considering this event is largely a function of the strength of a candidate's ground game, if the straw poll results reflect the polling, ie if the non-competing Giuliani and Thompson take second, third or even fourth place and/or finish within 20 points of Romney, that would be seen as a victory for them and a blow to Romney. While Saturday's expectations for Giuliani and Fred Thompson are low, Chris Cillizza has speculated that for Huckabee, Brownback and even Tommy Thompson to "continue in any serious way" after Ames, they'd have to finish top 3 (and Tancredo top 5.)

So the beautiful thing about the Ames straw poll for the rest of us is that it's guaranteed to winnow the field. In 1999, Elizabeth Dole, Dan Quayle and Lamar Alexander all dropped out. This year I wouldn't be surprised to see Hunter, Tancredo and Tommy Thompson drop their bids, which still leaves us with way too many white dudes up on the stage of those debates. The biggest question mark for me though is Ron Paul. He doesn't really register in the polling but he does have an online following, which has translated to some cash. He's also gone on the air in Iowa and by the sound of a statement on his website, he appears to see Ames as make or break. So I'm secretly rooting for a top five Paul finish. I'd love to see this guy stay in the race, but the real ones to look at are Brownback and Huckabee who have invested heavily in the state as they've both gone after Christian conservatives. While they may both emerge from Ames in a stronger position than they went in, if I had to choose, I'd go with Huckabee, if only because the guy rocks.

U.S. Sen. Sam Brownback from Kansas is bringing in the band Kansas, and hoping he won't be dust in the wind by day's end. Congressman Duncan Hunter of California has hired an Elvis impersonator. And unlikely Led Zeppelin fan Mike Huckabee, the former governor of Arkansas, will be playing bass with his own band.

Times you wish you were an Iowa Republican.

Update [2007-8-9 11:20:57 by Todd Beeton]: Sidenote to the University of Iowa poll: Barack Obama finishes third among Iowa Republican voters.

Perhaps most surprising of all, Obama actually finished third as the preferred general election candidate of registered Republicans, at 6.7 percent, behind Romney (21.8 percent), and Giuliani (10 percent), but ahead of Thompson (5.2 percent) and McCain (1.8 percent).

There's more...

The Ames, Iowa Straw Poll is coming up on August 11 and gives the Republican presidential campaigns a chance to flex their on the ground organizing muscle by buying tickets for supporters and bussing them in from around the state. The event consists of a non-binding vote taken at an Iowa Republican Party fundraising dinner at which the candidates speak. While the vote is non-binding, the straw poll is traditionally predictive of the actual results of the Iowa caucus. Hence, the reason Giuliani and McCain dropped out of the straw poll and why Thompson decided not to officially announce until after it: you can't lose if you don't compete and if a Romney win in the straw poll gives him an aura of inevitability in the caucus, then the only way he can go is down and the only way they can go is up.

Race42008 is announcing that the line-up for speakers and the order of the ballot are set:

Speaking Order (chosen randomly)

      Mitt Romney
      Tom Tancredo
      John Cox
      Ron Paul
      Mike Huckabee
      Duncan Hunter
      Tommy Thompson
      Sam Brownback

Straw Poll Ballot (alphabetical order)

      Brownback
      Cox
      Giuliani
      Huckabee
      Hunter
      McCain
      Paul
      Romney
      Tancredo
      Fred Thompson
      Tommy Thompson

While the winner is essentially a foregone conclusion (to the point where Romney has announced he's scaling back his organization for the event), the results among the rest of the field will be decisive. Chris Cilizza has an interesting article that breaks it down.

More over the flip...

There's more...