Check out the latest Research 2000 polling commissioned by Daily Kos of 600 likely Arizona voters in the field October 28 through October 30.
If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?
McCain-Palin: 48 percent (42 percent of those already voting) Obama-Biden: 47 percent (54 percent of those already voting)
If the 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Janet Napolitano the Democrat and John McCain the Republican?
John McCain (R): 45 percent Janet Napolitano (D): 53 percent
That's right -- John McCain is just about tied in his home state, and if his 2010 reelection bid were today and were he running against Democratic Governor Janet Napolitano he would lose.
Don't believe these numbers? The McCain campaign apparently does, because they have scheduled McCain to campaign in Arizona ahead of election day.
Sen. John McCain will be in Prescott on election eve, according to the Yavapai County Republican Party.
He plans to attend the party's annual Victory Rally at approximately 9 p.m. Monday on the historic courthouse plaza. The rally starts at 6 p.m. and typically attracts Republican elected officials from around the state.
With rumors that Barack Obama will touch down for a brief stop to stump in Arizona before election day and now hard news that the Obama campaign would be running this ad in Arizona (along with North Dakota and Georgia), we now have reason to believe that the race in the state may actually be edging towards "tossup" status (even as it likely still leans a bit towards the Republicans).
We don't yet know the extent of the move, but it is coming. First, here's Marc Ambinder passing on the call to action from an email from the Obama campaign noting the tightening polls in Arizona:
Arizona is [John McCain's] home state. He should have a comfortable lead with voters who've known him for nearly three decades. That says all you need to know about the strength of Barack's message and the grassroots movement we've built.
With Election Day just 5 days away, this surge of support for Barack couldn't come at a better time. But we have to act immediately to take advantage.
The campaign is now seriously examining a late surge into the state. That may include ramping up TV advertising, on-the-ground staff or even deploying the candidate to stop there. Obama is scheduled to make a Western swing late this week, making an Arizona visit possible.
This is now the fifth straight day bringing news of a tightening race in John McCain's home state of Arizona, and the announcement that the Obama campaign would indeed focus on Arizona -- albeit only for the last week of the election -- comes on the same day as two more nonpartisan polls reported a single-digit spread between McCain and Barack Obama in the state. Throwing into the mix Mason-Dixon polling showing McCain up 48 percent to 44 percent in the state and CNN/Time polling (.pdf) pegging McCain's lead at 53 percent to 46 percent, the Real Clear Politics average out of Arizona shows McCain under 50 percent and leading by just 5.2 percentage points -- not a great position for a politician who has spent a career representing the state.
Whether or not the Obama campaign does choose to go on-air during this last stretch of the election, we do know that at least one progressive group -- MoveOn -- has bought ad time in the state. Here's their spot:
I'd still like to see the Obama campaign go ahead and go up on the air in the state as well, even with a modest ad buy. But with the campaign asking for volunteers for the state, indicating that it is at least somewhat serious about putting the state on the map, and now MoveOn sending the message out on television, there is a shot -- a shot -- that we could see a surprise in the Grand Canyon state come Tuesday.
John McCain and the Republican National Committee are now running robocalls attacking Obama as weak on terrorism -- in McCain's home state of Arizona, according to multiple readers from the state.
The call signals genuine worry about McCain's home state at a time when several polls show the race to be much closer than expected there.
McCain's robocall, which was played to us over the phone by Mary Joe Bartel, a retiree who lives south of Tuscon, attacks Obama as unprepared to defend the country from terrorism, singling out Joe Biden's recent remarks about the likelihood of Obama being tested by an international crisis early in his first term.
This is the fourth straight day with news indicating that Arizona is on the map this last week of the campaign despite the fact that it is John McCain's home state and Barack Obama has not seriously targeted the state, with first Democratic polling shows the race to be within a single digit margin, then nonpartisan polling -- and then even apparently Republican polling, too. This development also comes on the heels of two more nonpartisan polls both showing the race to be narrow and McCain to be under 50 percent.
I'll repeat what I said yesterday: With the race in Arizona clearly tight, and the McCain campaign sufficiently worried to divert funds from other swing states to their candidate's home state, the Obama campaign should, if it can find a few hundred thousand dollars, make a modest investment in the state, which would have the potential upside of 10 more electoral votes for Obama's column, in addition to a bolstered argument for a mandate in the event of an Obama victory.
Yesterday I pointed to Rasmussen Reports polling showing John McCain leading Barack Obama by a mere 5 points -- 51 percent to 46 percent -- in Arizona. This survey came on the heels of two more recent Democratic polls showing McCain under 50 percent and leading by just 2 and 4 points. Now comes word that GOP polling shows largely the same result, and a forthcoming nonpartisan survey might not be too far off, either.
More disturbingly for Republicans, at least one internal Republican poll conducted toward the end of the week showed McCain clinging to a tiny 3-point lead. McCain is tied in Maricopa County, usually seen as a death knell for any statewide Republican candidate, but he makes up the difference with a strong performance in the northern part of the state.
Bruce Merrill, a political scientist who conducts the nonpartisan Cronkite/Eight poll for Arizona State University, told the Arizona Daily Star he expects his next poll to show a narrower advantage for McCain than his last survey. That survey, conducted during the final week of September, showed McCain leading by seven points, already a slim margin for a candidate's home state. Merrill's poll was being conducted over the weekend.
The last few days I have posited that it likely would not be worth it for the Obama campaign to go into Arizona this late in the process. But the more data I have seen quite unanimously showing the race in Arizona to be in the low single-digits, it might actually be worth it -- if the resources permitted it -- to spend a few hundred thousand dollars in late advertising in the state. Again, resources permitting, the upside is fairly high -- 10 electoral votes -- while the downside (a few hundred thousand dollars) isn't nearly as high. Yes, Obama's national advertising, including the 30-minute spot that will run on the major networks (including Univision), will saturate the state. But a targeted television buy in the state could just put Arizona genuinely in play one week from election day.
I noted yesterday the Democratic polling showing that Barack Obama is nipping at John McCain's heels in his home state of Arizona, and some may have seen that NBC News has moved Arizona from the "likely Republican" category to the more competitive "leans Republican" category. This morning we received further indication of the closeness of the race in Arizona in the form of nonpartisan polling from Rasmussen Reports.
John McCain's lead over Barack Obama is down to just five points in his home state of Arizona. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds the Senator leading 51% to 46%.
[...]
Prior to the latest poll, the smallest lead McCain held in the state was nine percentage points back in June. Last month, McCain led 59% to 38%.
I'll reiterate what I wrote last night: I don't think that it's necessarily prudent for the Obama campaign to shift serious resources into Arizona this late in the game. But when it comes to making the argument about mandates post-election, winning not only in red states but in a red state that is home to the Republican nominee -- or even keeping it much closer than the 11-point spread in the state between George W. Bush and John Kerry in 2004 -- would send a strong signal that the nation, the whole nation, is itching for change.
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