Here are some of the latest numbers on the 2006 campaign. If you have a new poll I missed, post it in the comments.
1.Bush and Iraq:
CBS has a new poll (PDF) that asks people what they like most about the Bush presidency, and what they like least. The questions are open-ended, and I compliment CBS on allowing the country to speak for itself by not providing a pre-set list of responses. When not prompted, Iraq is the overwhelming choice of what people like least about the Bush presidency, coming in at 38% of those surveyed. Immigration and the economy were tied for second with 5%, and "Don't know" had 14%. Clearly, when they are not prompted with a list of issues, Iraq immediately rises to the surface as the number one issue on the mind of the electorate, and the number one reason they want a change in Washington.
Far more humorously and tellingly, when it came to what people liked most about the Bush Presidency, "Don't Know" was the clear winner at 34%, and "Nothing" was a strong second at 19%. "Handling of terrorism" was third at 11%, down from 48% in January of 2002. Handling of Iraq came in a distant fourth at 4%.
2.AZ-08:
A new poll shows Giffords (D) and Graf (R) ahead in their respective primaries. The election is on Tuesday.
A generic ballot poll yesterday showed Democrats ahead 50-46. Graf is a real wingnut who has
less than 10% of Giffords' cash. If Graf wins instead of Huffman on the Republican side, this race becomes an almost certain Democratic pickup. Go Graf!
3.Senate:
Pollster.com new five-poll Senate averages (margin trend in parenthesis):
Really hard for me to see a pickup in Missouri right now, since McCaskill has nearly identical name ID and a lot les cash than Talent,
but Bob Geiger disagrees.
4.Governors. Jonathan's
Governor's forecast is the most optimistic of our three forecasts--and with good reason. Look at these five poll averages from
Pollster.com on Governor's races in Republican-held states:
- Arkansas: Beebe (D) 49%, Hutchinson (R) 41%
- Colorado: Ritter (D) 46%, Beauprez (R) 39%
- Ohio: Strickland (D) 53%, Blackwell (R) 37%
This does not include New York and Massachusetts, where Democratic pickups are virtually assured. Those five states alone, which all look very, very good for Democratic pickups, account for over 15% of the national population. Democrats look very, very good to take a majority of Governorships this fall.
Update: Here is an intereting polling update. A former pollster of both George Bush and Joe Lieberman
has been found guilty of fraud because she simply made polling data up.
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