It's now official, incumbent Alaska Congressman Don Young (R-corruption) has won his primary battle over Lt. Governor Sean Parnell by 304 votes and will in fact be on the ballot in November. Parnell has announced will not seek a recount.

Parnell said in a statement Thursday that he trusts the state Division of Elections' original count and does not want to waste more taxpayer money.

"If I thought there was anything wrong, inappropriate or unprofessional about the way this election tally was conducted, I would not only call for a recount, I would demand one. But that is not the case here," Parnell stated. "While a recount could change the outcome of this exceedingly close election -- normal human error being what it is -- such a result is unlikely. As such, I do not believe it justifies an expenditure of taxpayer funds."

This is excellent news for the Democratic nominee, Ethan Berkowitz, who has been polling better against Young than he has against Parnell. Just check out the new DailyKos/Research 2000 numbers:

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 9/15-17. Likely voters. MoE 4% (7/14-16 results)

Young (R) 39 (40)
Berkowitz (D) 53 (51)

Parnell (R) 43
Berkowitz (D) 48

Thanks, Alaska!

The primary was on August 26, a few days before Sarah Palin was tapped to be McCain's running mate, so one wonders what might have happened if it had been a few days later. Parnell is Palin's Lt. Governor after all, as well as her hand-picked challenger to Young, so was in a unique position to take advantage of Palin mania, although looking at those poll numbers, it's amazing just how not a factor Palin has been in the race. But now, Parnell is in the interesting position of possibly inheriting the governorship if Palin-McCain...er...McCain/Palin were somehow able to pull off a ridiculous victory, a fact that no doubt has played into Parnell's decision to concede.

If you'd like to find out more about Berkowitz, check out his website HERE and if you're in the LA area, he's having a small dollar fundraiser tonight that I'm going to, details at the Facebook Event page.

Update [2008-9-19 10:8:27 by Todd Beeton]:This video is hilarious. Once again Sarah Palin -- here in her Sean Hannity interview -- takes credit for having "killed" the bridge to nowhere and notice whom she blames the bridge on:

I think I ruffled some feathers there also with our congressman who had been requesting that bridge for so many years.

"Congressman?" Interesting, no mention of the not so distinguished senator from Alaska who had taken a leadership role -- to put it lightly -- when it came to trying to get that bridge built.

The money -- championed by Sen. Ted Stevens, R-Alaska, the powerful head of the Senate Appropriations Committee -- was earmarked to help construct a bridge between Ketchikan and Gravina Island in the Alaskan Inland Passage in the southeastern corner of the state. A ferry boat now provides transportation between the two points. [...]

Stevens had argued that the bridges were needed to spur economic development on Gravina Island and in Knik. The proposed Gravina Island bridge is not a "bridge to nowhere," Stevens said Wednesday; "it's the bridge to the future."

Don Young, meet bus.

There's more...

Tuesday was primary day in Alaska and, well, there was a little event going on that diverted our attention, so I wanted to give an update of Tuesday's results.

• On the House side, Alaska House Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz easily dispatched Diane Benson in the Democratic primary. Whom he will challenge in November, however, is still uncertain and won't be decided for a few weeks.

  In the primary for the state's lone House seat, [GOP incumbent Don] Young led Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell by 152 votes, or 0.16 percent, with 99 percent of precincts reporting Wednesday. [...]

  "We're not going to finish counting absentee and [provisional] ballots until Sept. 5," said Gail Fenumiai, director of the state Division of Elections. "We have thousands of absentee ballots to be counted."

  Once the counting is finished, she said, a state board will spend seven to 10 days reviewing the results, a step that is part of every contest, regardless of the margin. The results will be officially certified by Sept. 16 or 17. Only then can the loser request a full recount, which would take at least a few days to complete.

  Considering the recent polling, we should hope that Swing State Project is right when they project the absentee ballots to expand Young's lead but interestingly, they're also reporting that Young has refused to rule out running as an independent if he loses.

• On the Senate side, Road to 60 candidate Mark Begich officially became the Democratic nominee for the Senate from Alaska and indicted incumbent Ted Stevens became -- for now -- the Republican nominee having won 63% of the vote among a 7 candidate field.

  Considering Begich is up 18% in the Pollster trend estimate, it's possible that Stevens will be pressured out of the race, which would mean the Alaska Republican Party would get to choose a replacement candidate, so it's important to continue to support Mark Begich over at our Road To 60 ActBlue page.

There's more...

The latest polling out of Alaska, courtesy of Ivan Moore, sure doesn't look good for Republicans.

Alaska Senate: General Election

Ted Stevens (R): 38.5 percent
Mark Begich (D): 55.5 percent

Alaska At-Large House District: General Election

Don Young (R): 40.6 percent
Ethan Berkowitz (D): 51.3 percent

With Ted Stevens seemingly cruising towards re-nomination, even considering his indictment and upcoming trial -- he leads his nearest GOP challenger by a 62.7 percent to 20.4 percent margin -- the Republicans' hopes of holding onto this Senate seat are increasingly in doubt. About the only good news out of this polling is the fact that House incumbent Don Young, who is also under an ethics cloud and also trails in a general election matchup, is only barely ahead in his reelection bid, leading his strongest primary challenger by a 45.9 percent to 40.4 percent margin, with a third Republican pulling in 7.4 percent of the vote. Overall, there could be a real sea change out in the Last Frontier state this November, one that reaches from the top of the ballot all the way down to the bottom.

There's more...

It looks like all of that massive Republican corruption in Alaska is taking its toll on the party, with the Senator who has represented the state for about 80 percent of its life and the Congressman who has represented the state of about 70 percent of its life both trailing their respective Democratic challengers in new head-to-head non-partisan Research 2000 polling commissioned by Markos:

If 2008 election for Congress were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Ethan Berkowitz, the Democrat, and Don Young, the Republican?

Young (R) 42
Berkowitz (D) 49

If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Mark Begich, the Democrat, and Ted Stevens, the Republican?

Stevens (R) 41
Begich (D) 47

In both of these races it looks like the greatest potential problem for the Democrats could come in the form of a successful primary challenge for either/both Stevens and Young. Indeed, Young recently earned himself a seemingly credible challenger in the form of state Rep. Gabrielle LeDoux.

In the event that both Young and Stevens make it out of their party's primary, it seems likely that both races will be among the most competitive in the nation next year. On the Senate side of the ledger, a Stevens-Begich race could be as high as the Democrats' fifth best pick-up opportunity (behind Mark Warner in Virginia, Tom Udall in New Mexico, Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire and Mark Udall in Colorado, perhaps in that order and perhaps not). On the House side, I wouldn't give Young much more than a slight edge, if even that, given the Republican-leaning nature of the state (no Democrat has won a federal election in the state since 1974), and I'd more likely rank the race in the toss-up range.

If you want to go back through and get some information on these races, between Todd, SenateGuru and me there's a whole lot of posts in both the AK-Sen tag and the AK-AL tag here on MyDD.

And just to add... In case folks were wondering, I have finals here at Berkeley law starting tomorrow morning, so I'm probably going to be a bit quiet in the coming days. Thanks for bearing with me, though. -- J

Update [2007-12-10 13:37:27 by Todd Beeton]:If I can just jump into Jonathan's post for a second, looking at the internals of the poll, it's interesting to note that it isn't Republicans who are abandoning Young and Stevens, although they're more inclined to support Berkowitz over Young than they are to support Begich over Stevens. The real story here appears to be independents who favor the Democrats by at least 20% margins in both races. This is particularly important in Alaska where, according to 2008 Racetracker wiki, the partisan breakdown is as follows:

As of Oct. 3, 2007:
Dem. - 67,860 (14.26%)
Rep. - 117,504 (24.69%)
Non-Part.-74,772 (15.71%)
Undecl. - 183,397 (38.54%)
Other - 32,296 (6.79%)

There's more...

Diane Benson, 2006 Democratic challenger to Alaska Congressman Don Young (she garnered 40% of the vote), commissioned a poll of the state (601 RVs, Oct. 27-11/2, MOE +/-4.9%) and the results are extremely encouraging for both Benson and her primary rival, Alaska House Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz.

From Swing State Project:

Diane Benson (D): 45.3%
Don Young (R-inc): 36.7%
Undecided: 15.6%

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 49.7%
Don Young (R-inc): 35.1%
Undecided: 13.8%

Diane Benson (D): 45.0%
Gabriella LeDoux (R): 12.3%
Undecided: 38.2%

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 49.0%
Gabriella LeDoux (R):  13.8%
Undecided: 32.9%

You thought an incumbent below 50% was bad, this guy can't even rally 40%. Could Alaska have finally become fed up with corruption of its federal officials? TPM Muckraker takes us on a Don Young corruption trip down memory lane.

The feds are chasing Young for his ties to the corrupt oil company Veco (among other things), and he's already blown $450,000 in campaign funds on criminal defense lawyers. But it looks like investigators pulled out all the stops.

FBI agents recorded former Veco president Rick Smith's phone calls with Young, the AP reports today. In September, the AP reported that Veco's CEO Bill Allen had recorded his calls with Sen. Ted Stevens (R-AK).

The Justice Department is investigating whether an Alaska oil contractor used golf tournaments to funnel cash to Rep. Don Young, people close to the corruption investigation said.... [T]he events at the Moose Run Golf Course just outside Anchorage were informal and the prizes were cash. There is no record of them on the campaign or personal financial reports that federal lawmakers are required to file.

And the list goes on.

As the noose begins to tighten and as more poll numbers showing Young vulnerable emerge, a Young retirement becomes more and more likely. Certainly Young is on everyone'sretirement watch lists but it's interesting to note that here the Democrats trounce the untainted Republican running against Young for the nomination. Is this really the state of Alaska's Republican bench? Assuming Young is the nominee, though, Charlie Cook calls the race to represent this extremely Republican state (PVI R+14) as "Leans Republican," one step removed from "Toss-up."

Who'll be running as the Republican nominee isn't the only uncertainty, of course. As for the race between the Democrats, Berkowitz currently leads Benson by about 8% with more than a 1/3 of Alaska voters undecided. No doubt we can expect AK-AL to be the home of one of the tighter primary and general election races in the country next year.

There's more...