Great new ad from the No on 1 campaign in Maine:

I feel optimistic about this election.

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I haven't written about Sarah Palin for a couple of months, because her political relevance pretty much evaporated when she failed to complete the job Alaska voters elected her to do. She and her entourage seem not to have clued in yet, however:

Republican gubernatorial candidate Bob McDonnell repeatedly and personally asked former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin for help this summer in his campaign for Virginia governor, a Palin spokeswoman said.

But by late August, Palin learned that the McDonnell campaign no longer wanted her assistance, Palin adviser Meg Stapleton said in an interview tonight.

Earlier this week, McDonnell reacted with a bit of sarcasm when asked whether Palin would be campaigning with him. "There was a time earlier on when she was governor when I thought she would come here,'' he said. "But I think she seems to be busy with books and other things like that. We've still got about 20 different events scheduled down the road and she's not one of them."

But Stapleton says Palin is not too busy to come. She says that her boss offered to help McDonnell numerous times both in conversations with him and his campaign and through the Republican Governors Association.

"The Governor, SarahPAC, and I have all communicated to the candidate, the campaign and to the RGA the Governor's continued willingness to assist in any way possible - even as recently as two weeks ago,'' Stapleton said.

Memo to Stapleton: Your boss doesn't seem like an authority on who's fit to serve as governor anymore. If Palin had not resigned for no apparent reason in the middle of her first term, she might have found a spot on McDonnell's schedule, along with various other Republican governors and former governors.

Assuming Terry Branstad is the Republican nominee for Iowa governor next year, he won't want Palin coming anywhere near his campaign either. I suppose the more socially conservative Bob Vander Plaats might seek out Palin's support during the Republican gubernatorial primary here, but Palin may not be enough of a maverick to campaign for an underdog in a GOP primary.

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This article by Jason Clayworth in Thursday's Des Moines Register was good for a few laughs:

A group opposed to same-sex marriages failed to secure victory for Republicans in Iowa this week, but the massive injection of out-of-state money on the issue foreshadows what's to come in next year's elections, political scholars said Wednesday.

Despite the loss, the National Organization for Marriage succeeded in making gay marriage an issue, the head of the group said Wednesday. He vowed that its "Reclaim Iowa Project" will remain active in the 2010 state elections.

I'm sure "making gay marriage an issue" was just the kind of success the NOM's generous donors (whoever they are) were looking for. Why, Iowans in House district 90 might never have realized same-sex couples could marry if not for the NOM's major ad campaign.

Back to that Register article:

Jeff Boeyink, executive director of the Iowa Republican Party, said many no-party voters Tuesday supported [Stephen] Burgmeier. That was a victory itself, he said.

Voters want the opportunity to vote on the gay marriage issue, he said.

"We moved the needle a lot," Boeyink said. "We didn't get the victory, but we take away some real positives out of this."

Sure, Mr. Boeyink, you "moved the needle a lot." Your candidate, elected three times as a Jefferson County supervisor, lost his own county by more than 600 votes.

The marriage group did not lose the race for Burgmeier, said Chuck Hurley, a former Republican legislator and now president of the Iowa Family Policy Center, a group against gay marriage. He said the issue will be a major topic in the 2010 elections.

"Marriage won the day," Hurley said of the election. "I think it was a huge issue in the campaign."

Yes, Republicans tried to make marriage a huge issue in the campaign while Curt Hanson talked about jobs, economic development and renewable energy. The National Organization for Marriage's television ad used the same kind of rhetoric as the Iowa Family Policy Center's "Let Us Vote" campaign: instead of advocating discrimination against same-sex couples, the ads supported Burgmeier as someone who would "let voters have a say." Well, voters in House district 90 had their say.

I don't want to get too cocky. Tuesday's election could have gone the other way if not for the outstanding GOTV effort by organizers supporting Hanson. But the fact is, a special election a few months after the Iowa Supreme Court ruling went into effect is exactly the kind of race likely to be disproportionately influenced by same-sex marriage. The experience of Vermont and Massachusetts shows that any electoral backlash against supporters of marriage equality was short-lived. If the Iowa Family Policy Center (which designated a staffer to work on Burgmeier's campaign) and nearly $90,000 worth of NOM tv ads couldn't leverage this issue into a victory on Tuesday, I don't think Republicans will get far running against gay marriage 14 months from now.

For a more honest Republican assessment of Tuesday's special election results, read this post by Craig Robinson at The Iowa Republican blog.

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It was a nail-biter in Iowa House district 90 tonight, but Democrats will retain a 56-44 majority in the Iowa House for the 2010 session. Curt Hanson won the special election with 3,932 votes (48.9 percent), while Republican Stephen Burgmeier won 3,825 votes (47.5 percent). More details are at the Iowa Secretary of State's website. Only four votes separated the two candidates in Wapello County. Jefferson County, which contains Fairfield, was the key for Hanson--he led by more than 600 votes there. Burgmeier led by just over 500 votes in Van Buren County.

There were 8,046 total votes cast, which was relatively high for a special election. I had heard predictions that 6,000 to 7,000 people would vote in this race. In a general election, between 10,000 and 18,000 votes are cast in most Iowa House districts.

Conservative Dan Cesar of the Fourth of July party got just 40 votes, but independent candidate Douglas Philips got 242 votes. I have no idea what kind of campaign he was running or which candidate he drew support from.

I received this statement from Iowa Democratic Party chair Michael Kiernan:

FAIRFIELD, IA - "I congratulate Curt Hanson on a successful campaign. His was a local campaign about local issues, and it is not surprising he was successful.  Curt will make an excellent addition to the Democratic majority in the Iowa House.  Congratulations to Speaker Murphy, Majority Leader McCarthy and the staff of the Iowa Democratic Party, for their outstanding effort and teamwork, and the victory that has followed.  
"Democrats have been successful in the last two election cycles and tonight because we have recruited great candidates, followed through on the promises we've made and are governing the state responsibly.
 "We will continue to build upon this strong organization and team approach as we prepare for statewide elections next fall.  Tonight's results don't change our strategy for 2010.  Tomorrow we will get back to work on candidate recruitment, fundraising and organizing.  We have every reason to expect continued success."

I would add that this result should make it easier for Democratic leaders in the Iowa House and Senate to keep their caucuses in line next year regarding marriage equality. Republicans will use every procedural trick in the book to try to force floor votes on a constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage. If Burgmeier had won, some Democrats in tough districts might have been more inclined to support the Republicans on procedural votes of this kind.

Tonight's result must be very disappointing for Iowa Republicans, who invested a lot of resources in this race and were hoping a victory would boost their candidate recruitment and fundraising going into next year. The GOP has suffered net losses of seats in the Iowa House and Senate for the last four elections. Burgmeier was well-known in the district as a Jefferson County supervisor and was thought to have a lot of crossover appeal. Republicans have been beating the war drum over tax and spending issues, while the National Organization for Marriage ran ads for Burgmeier because of his support for a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage.

I was nervous about this race, but Bleeding Heartland user American007 was right on the money, predicting a Hanson victory today and observing more than a month ago, "never underestimate the power of a well-liked local teacher in politics." Hanson was a driver's education teacher in Fairfield for more than 40 years.

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Today's the big day in Iowa House district 90, where Republicans and conservative interest groups are all-in for Stephen Burgmeier against the Democratic candidate Curt Hanson. Polls close at 9 pm Central Daylight Time. Going into this election, Democrats have a 56-44 majority in the Iowa House, and a victory in this rural swing district would be a boost for the GOP. Beth Dalbey wrote a good feature on the campaign for Iowa Independent. Other news from the race:

Democrats had an early lead in terms of absentee ballots returned, and according to the field organizer for the Fairness Fund, efforts to collect outstanding absentee ballots continued through Monday. We won several Iowa House seats in 2008 through big leads in early voting. A strong absentee ballot showing will be crucial for Hanson, because the national political environment for Democrats is less favorable now than it was last November, conservative groups are heavily invested in this race, and same-sex marriage has galvanized the Republican base in Iowa.

Speaking of gay marriage, the National Organization for Marriage has spent nearly $90,000 trying to get Burgmeier elected. It's an astronomical sum to spend in a rural Iowa House district. The group will have to do things differently if they want to get involved in our statehouse races next year:

An out-of-state anti-gay marriage group will likely need to form its own Political Action Committee and disclose its donors if it continues its Iowa activities, a state official warned today [Friday]. [...]

NOM will likely need to disclose future donors if it continues its Iowa activities, Charlie Smithson, the head of the Iowa Ethics and Campaign Disclosure Board, warned NOM in a letter today.

"I'm not as much concerned with this particular race as I am that Iowa is not going to become a dumping ground for undisclosed campaign contributions," Smithson said in an interview.  "Anyone can play the game here, but they are going to play within the rules."

The One Iowa blog has more details and a link to Smithson's letter. The bottom line is that the National Organization for Marriage will need to form a PAC that discloses donors in order to spend more than $750 on advocacy activities in Iowa. Click here to sign One Iowa's petition calling on NOM to disclose their funding sources. (By the way, a money laundering complaint has been filed in Maine in response to the way groups including the NOM are funding efforts to overturn same-sex marriage rights by passing Prop 1.)

Yesterday One Iowa and the Interfaith Alliance of Iowa Action Fund filed a formal ethics complaint against the National Organization for Marriage with the Iowa Ethics and Campaign Disclosure Board. The NOM claims to be in compliance with Iowa law.

Jason Clayworth of the Des Moines Register and Jason Hancock of Iowa Independent reported on the disclosure reports filed by Hanson and Burgmeier. The Republican is getting much more help from outside groups, including Iowans for Tax Relief and the Iowa Family Policy Center as well as the National Organization for Marriage.

If you're on Twitter, use #HD90 to find updates from Republicans and Democrats who are involved in this race.

Post any thoughts or election predictions in this thread. I am having trouble making a prediction. This race "should" go to Burgmeier because low-turnout special elections favor the opposition party, and because conservative interest groups have advertised much more in the district. On the other hand, I hear field organizers supporting Hanson on the ground have been doing a tremendous job. The district is also unusual because it includes Fairfield, which has a high number of Green and Libertarian voters. I don't know whether either party has been targeting those groups. I will update this post with my final prediction this afternoon.

Update [2009-9-1 19:39:21 by desmoinesdem]: Volunteers and field organizers are working hard today GOTV for Hanson, but I fear the Republican is going to narrowly win. My wild guess is 53-47 for Burgmeier, but I'd love to be wrong!

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