Hi Everyone!  Election Day is fast approaching (12 days!), which means lots of work and fun for hardcore political junkies like me.  Every two years I compile a comprehensive Election Night Helper (2006 edition) which is intended to help you digest the results as they come in by knowing when the polls close in each state and what the key races are in each.  This time I've added state legislatures that are in play (important for the 2011 redistricting) and some of my own predictions, as well as governors and congressional seats--all in the most user-friendly format I could devise.  The top also includes links to several helpful objective resources to help you follow on your own whatever interests you specifically between now and Election Day; a lot can still happen in 2 weeks so these races can be moving targets (Rep. Michelle Bachmann's crazy comments last week have just put her MN-6 seat in jeopardy).  I hope this is really helpful, and I encourage you to reproduce it and spread it widely.  If you want the file in Word or PDF with all the formatting intact, just email me at sandwichrepair at yahoo dot com.  Ditto if you think there are any big races or ballot issues I've omitted.  I haven't finished putting major ballot issues in, but I thought it was time to get this out already.  If you want version 2 with them added, email me.

At this point, I'm not ready to meaningfully predict the presidential popular vote (52-45?), the overall turnout, or the House of Representatives (251-271 Democrats?  Maybe the most since 1993-94 or earlier).  I do think, at the moment, that Democrats will end up with 59-60 Senate seats--the most any party has had since 1979-80--and that Obama will win something like 350-375 electoral college votes (Clinton won 370 in 1992 and 379 in 1996).  On top of all the Kerry 2004 states, I think he will gain CO, FL, IA, NM, NV, OH, and VA (which would total 338).  IN, MO, NC, ND, and WV are all possibilities.

Assuming Obama wins, the networks will offer you some facts about him as president-elect right after they declare him the winner.  Here are some they may include:
*America's first African-American/biracial president (duh)
*First African-American/biracial person to lead a majority white nation
*First Democrat to win 50% of the popular vote since 1964 (LBJ)
*First senator elected president since 1960 (JFK)
*First Northern Democrat to be president since 1960
*First Midwestern president since Gerald Ford (MI)
*First Midwestern president elected since 1948 (Truman-MO)
*Voter turnout is likely to be the highest in over 40 years--young, new and black voters will be key.
*4th youngest president (47; after Bill Clinton at 46, John F. Kennedy at 43, and Teddy Roosevelt at 42)
*First Democrat to win NC since 1976, and/or IN, ND, and/or VA since 1964.

There's more...

Remarkable, that the Democrats are going to go another cycle without losing a single seat in the US Senate. The Rothenberg analysis looks pretty solid:

Likely or Lean for a Democratic takeaway: VA, NM, NC, OR, AK, NH, and CO. A 7 seat gain, which is just phenomenal. A number of these face tough GOP candidates, so take nothing for granted, but it sure sounds sweet.

MN is ranked as the sole toss-up. This seems a real wild race, with the 3rd party candidate, Barkley, now gaining in the polls. He's at 18% in two recent polls, and Franken has lead in recent polling by single-digits. That would get us to 8.

Only in the "Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party" column, does a Democrat come up, Mary Landrieu in LA, but there's no recent indication that she's in danger. The three Republicans here, Chambliss (R-GA), McConnell (R-KY), Wicker (R-MS), could all three be takeaways. Musgrove could win on the special MS ballot, beating Chambliss would be sweet justice, and nailing McConnell to get to 60 is possible too.

Then there's the last column, "Currently Safe" seats:

ID Open (Craig, R)
NE Open (Hagel, R)
Alexander (R-TN)
Barrasso (R-WY)
Cochran (R-MS)
Cornyn (R-TX)
Enzi (R-WY)
Graham (R-SC)
Inhofe (R-OK)
Roberts (R-KS)
Sessions (R-AL)

I'm holding out hope for at least one of these Republicans to be defeated, so is the Senate Guru:

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Bruce Lunsford would add D to the Senate Democratic caucus.  Here's the latest poll out, done by Mason-Dixon, for the Louisville Courier-Journal (9/22-25, moe, 3.7%)

McConnell    45
Lunsford     44

That's right, Lunsford is a single percentage behind McConnell. Lunsford leads among Independents by 4% and just needs to shore up conservative Democrats to have a shot at winning this race. McConnell's approval rating is 48 percent, disapproval is 39 percent. McConnell has begun attack ads.

But isn't the possibility of winning this seat drawing us awful close to 60?

Warner, Udall, Shaheen, Udall, Hagan, Begich, Markley, Musgrove, and one more would do it, even before Franken, or any of the longshots coming into view.

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(crossposted at BlueGrassRoots)

Lt. Col. Andrew Horne, potential 2008 challenger to Senator Mitch McConnell, was kind enough to answer some questions that I had for him. The questions range from Iraq and veterans affairs, to civil liberties and torture. There is also a discussion of the performance of McConnell and the Democratic Congress, as well as his possible candidacy next year. If you like what you see, there is a petition to draft him into the race at DraftHorne.org. Here is the transcript:

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We all are expecting this to happen in Nebraska.  

Monday, September 10th, 2007: Chuck Hagel announces his retirement at the end of this term.  

Next 2-3 Months: Three Republican Senate candidates announce and fight each other over who gets to be the nominee.  (State AG Jon Buning, Former Governor Mike Johanns, Former Omaha Mayor Hal Daub).  
One Democrat Announces (Former Governor and Senator Bob Kerrey)

There is a lot of Arguing back and forth as to whether appreciate the candidacy of Bob Kerrey or not... And while looking up some information about Bob Kerrey, I came across a diary post by "kos" on Dailykos.  

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