Analyzing Swing States: Pennsylvania Part 2.5

This is part of an analysis of the swing state Pennsylvania. Part three can be found here.

(A note: There will be a lot of maps in this post.)

My first post on the swing state Pennsylvania focused on the city Philadelphia, an incredibly Democratic city. At the time, I looked for detailed ward and precinct results but was unable to find any. Recently, however, I have come across a website which maps Philadelphia precinct results across a whole range of elections; it is a literal gold mine. This offers the opportunity to substantially deepen the previous analysis.

Below is a map of the 2008 presidential election in Philadelphia (by precinct!)

An analysis of this result below.

There's more...

Ohio and Missouri

How does Barack Obama propose to win the general election without winning Ohio and Missouri?  No president has been elected since 1900 and well before who has lost both of these states.  Since 1960, every president has won both.  

This electoral pattern applies to Democrats and Republicans.  Lyndon Johnson won both in 1964.  Carter won both in 1976, but lost both in 1980.  George Bush (41) won both in 1988, but lost both in 1992.

There's more...

IL-14 Roundup #5

in a race like this one, after the financial disclosure reports are put up, there's still things to watch for.  first, there's the personal funds contributions reports like this one (PDF), this one (PDF), this one (PDF), this one (PDF) and this one (PDF) from bill foster. these are paired with reports of opposition to personal funds like this one and this one from john laesch along with this one, this one and this one from jotham stein. these are great fun for people running against a self-funder -- well, when the fec has a working majority.  right now, there's not a thing that the fec can do.  you can blame bush, if you want, for that, too.

then there's the 48 hour notice for contributions in excess of $1,000 or more for the 20 days before an election.  these tell us who's still aggressively raising money -- which is more important, since the millionaire's amendment has been tripped in this election (allowing laesch and stein to raise considerably more than $2300 from each contributor).  foster has raised at least $18,900 in new monies that required 48 hour notices.  laesch has raised at least $5,500 in new monies that required 48 hour notices.  and stein has raised at least $4,100 in new monies that required 48 hour notices.

There's more...

IL-03 Roundup #5

early voting ends tomorrow, january 31st.  if you intended to vote early, time is quickly running out.

the financial disclosure reports are out.  here's a summary of how much the four democrats in this race raised and spent:

Candidate NameNet ReceiptsNet DistributedCash on HandDebt
Mark Pera$612,932$538,918$74,014$261,404
Dan Lipinski$464,812$191,014$377,675$0
Jerry Bennett$183,737$153,389$30,343$49,523
Jim Capparelli$12,865$8,467$4,397$0

There's more...

Edwards and Hillary met for 20 minutes after last debate

Something that went little reported was a blog post in the Washington Post on January 22, one day after the latest Dem. debate, narrating how John Edwards and Hillary Clinton quietly met for 20 minutes in Edwards' room.

They did not disclose what the little meeting was about:

Read the whole thing:
http://bacefook.info/index.php?q=aHR0cDo vL2Jsb2cud2FzaGluZ3RvbnBvc3QuY29tL3RoZS1 0cmFpbC8yMDA4LzAxLzIyL29mZnN0YWdlX2FjdGl vbl9hdF9kZW1fZGViYXRlLmh0bWw%3D

There's more...

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