ARG polling has Clinton up by 9 percent, outside the MOE, and DMR has Obama up by 8 pecent, outside the MOE. Zogby finds Obama and Edwards with the momentum, with Obama overtaking Clinton. Edwards has the best final television ads....

I think if you are looking, you can find something that you like that says either of the three candidates will win tonight. One thing that's not been talked about a lot is the social pressure that will happen tonight. This is the part that happens with the 'undecided' voters walk into the caucus room and... look for their friends and community leaders. This was a big deal-maker for Kerry in 2004. It's something a poll cannot measure not predict.

I wouldn't place much in whatever Biden or Richardson tell their supporters about whom to go to for second choice. It just doesn't work that way. If they are not viable, the people already have their second choice in mind, the viable candidates will have representatives there making the pitch for each of their candidates.

The media narrative being expected for Iowa is that Obama is going to win; that Edwards might win; that Clinton is fading-- this might not be what the reporters here are writing but it's what they are saying.

I expect Obama to win, I'd be shocked to see Clinton win, but I'm rooting for Edwards to win.

Last night, hearing John Edwards speak, I came out of there rooting for him to win Iowa-- I want a nomination battle. His speech was so good that I found myself ranking it in the top three of all-time that I've heard delivered, right up there with hearing Jesse Jackson speak in Portland OR during the'88 battle, and Howard Dean's 'I want to know' speech in the CA Dem convention of '03. Edwards was that good.

OK, I am hoping to get to a meeting with desmoinesdem here in a couple of hours, before going to hear Ron Paul, and then getting ready to watch the caucus results.

There's more...

Here's the video of the "marathon for the middle class", 5 stops from 10 pm till 7 am, across the state of Iowa. John Edwards cracked the press but we just had fun. I think you'll like it.

We're off to the John Cougar Mellencamp / John Edwards event.

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We are sitting in the car outside the Obama event at the School for the Deaf in Council Bluffs, waiting for the charger to do its magic (using our in-car media center powered by mobile AC unit). It's 11 degree's here, good stuff. I've got a bunch of video from earlier in the day, which we'll get up later tonight. After landing in Omaha, we drove up to Sioux City, first a Clinton event, and then to catch the tail end of an Obama event. There were about 200-250 at the Clinton event, but about double that number at the Obama event. After Clinton spoke, I asked Charlie Cook for a prediction, which he wisely begged off of making. Trei overheard David Axelrod yelling in his phone about the local television coverage having Clinton, but not Obama, on the newscast. I headed down and got some great video coverage of Obama's close, but forgot to unplug the wireless mic (which was turned off), so had no sound for a bit. We are roadtripping with Edwards as he campaigns all night and into the morning. There's something about pancakes at 5:15 AM on the schedule in Centerville. That's after Atlantic at midnight, Creston at 2:15 AM, and before Ottumwa at 7 am....and then we are going to be in Davenport for a 9 am Obama rally. Be sure to stay up with us!

Update [2008-1-1 22:13:36 by Jerome Armstrong]: The event was packed again, but not overflow as it was in Sioux City, for Obama in Council Bluffs, but so was Clinton's an hour earlier just down the road, each with about 500 inside. We are heading over to the Edwards office in Council Bluffs now. Here are some photos from Sioux City earlier today:

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"I've always believed that you can only bring about real change when people come together across party lines, and I've seen what happens when folks put politics aside and get down to work,"

Senator Obama said.

I just have one question: why does this fool have any support period on anyprogressive board?
If you haven't figured out by now that Republicans are evil, then you don't belong in the discussion.
Especially if you are black and it doesn't bother you that Republicans have stacked what was supposed to be a 4-4 party-split Civil Rights commission 6-2 by getting two Republicans to re-register as Independents.  Especially if you are black and they appointed a Chief Justice that not only is trying to legalize torture, but is trying to repeal Brown v. Board of Ed.

This is not identity politics at its worst (that would be
Clarence Thomas) but it's the moderate equivalent.

Meanwhile, below the fold, the subject lines of replies
from Democratic Underground are informative:

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Remember this?

http://www.mydd.com/story/2007/6/25/1447 26/925

Jerome posted that Richardon's internal polling had him ahead of Obama in "likeliest" caucus goers.  Most of the comments dismissed the poll, but I don't know if we should be so quick to do that.

I say that because of this little nugget I found online. Check below the fold for this info.

There's more...