Elizabeth Drew in the a recent issue of The New York Review of Books gives as convincing of a narrative concerning the nature of the Democrats' victory in November 2006 as I've read anywhere. There are some important observations in the Drew's article.

First, the situation for the GOP going into the elections of November, 2006:

In an interview, the astute Republican lobbyist and activist Vin Weber said of the Christian conservatives, "They really are to the Republican party what labor or African-Americans are to the Democrats--similar in numbers and impact." Weber told me, "The evangelical vote is simply larger than that of other Republican constituencies."

The Rove "genius," his daunting get-out-the-vote machinery mobilizing Republican activists on the ground, as well as his ability to frame issues from gay marriage to fighting terrorism in a way that puts Democrats on the defensive, added to the mystique of Republican invincibility. But Rove's real innovation was to develop a far more sophisticated "targeting" operation-- figuring out, for example, where the Christian right and evangelical voters are to be found, and making sure they get to the polls.

However, "Mechanics alone can't win elections," Drew rightly points out, and the American "electorate is closely divided." The result of the November 2006 election--that is, the Democratic Party's capture of the House and Senate--was because "59 percent of independents voted for Democrats--up from 49 percent in 2004." Why? In part because the "embrace of Christian conservatives has helped push the Republican Party far to the right, leaving more centrist and independent voters up for grabs."

But the even greater motivator of anti-Republican votes (which tended to be pro-Democratic only incidentally, except in the case of voters in their 20's) was the issue of Iraq.

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Big and enthusiastic crowds have been turning out for Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and John Edwards in both Iowa and New Hampshire.  The natural way of viewing these events is to credit the strong field of Democratic candidates for the 2008 Presidential race.  Other factors are at work as well which bodes well for the prospects of real change and for electing a Democratic President in 2008.

Iowa and New Hampshire are both presented as swing states.  In fact, they are quintessential swing states.  In 2000, Al Gore narrowly won Iowa but lost New Hampshire, long the one Republican stronghold in New England by a mere 8,000 votes.  Four years later, John Kerry carried New Hampshire but lost Iowa.

The results in 2006, however, were different, even historic.  Democrats in the two states had their strongest showing in decades.  The enthusiasm and the energy may well shape the Presidential campaigns for both parties.  A more detailed examination follows below the fold.

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Recall that prior to the November 7 midterm election Mad Professahmade some bold predictions about the results. There are some five U.S. House races still yet to be decided, and the situation in FL-13 (Katherine Harris's old district) is probably the most egregious. Anyway, here are the results versus predictions...

               Mad Professah Prediction    Actual Result
U.S. House              +30                  +30 (as of 11/18/2006)
U.S. Senate              +5                   +6
Governors                +8                   +6

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Just a few quick updates on youth vote turnout and the impact that we had as a group.

Via an analysis in the New York Times, its apparent that this year's turnout increase was driven primarily by young voters:

The overall turnout rate, reflecting a percentage of voting age population, was 40.4 percent, compared with 39.7 percent in 2002, according to an Associated Press vote count and an analysis by American University's Center for the Study of the American Electorate.

So the overall turnout rate increased by less than 1%, yet young voter turnout rate rose by 4% over 2002 levels.  So not only did the kids  turnout, and break democratic (as my graph shows), but they also drove the overall increase that we saw in the electorate as a whole.  

There's more...

Cross-posted at Future Majority.

I've had time to sift through what data is available from Young Voter Strategies and CIRCLE.  The bottom line is this - youth turnout increased for the third straight year, and millenials chose Democrats over Republicans by 22 percentage points (60%-38%) - more than double any other age demographic.

Democratic Preference by Age Demographic

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