This is an email I just got from the Ohio Democratic Party.  They claim Paul Gillmor is only 8 points ahead of his challenger in his mostly rural NW Ohio district.  Gillmor, embarrassingly, is a fellow alumnus of Ohio Wesleyan (2 other House members also went to OWU, both Republicans).  I knew he didn't live in his district years ago, but I was REALLY surprised that he STILL doesn't live in it--or even close!  He lives in Dublin, which is the 1st or 2nd richest and most suburb of Columbus!  That's like a 90 minute to 2 hour drive from the district he represents.

Weirauch campaign site (Apparently the Toledo Blade endorsed Weirauch)

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Cross-posted from Patterns That Connect

As the once-fringe idea that Democrats could sweep to power in the House becomes the new conventional wisdom, the closing days of the campaign will be partly informed by what people think this could mean.  Naturally, those who were the last to see this coming will hog the airwaves and printspace telling us what it all could mean.  But online reality-based community is used to that noise.  So what should we be thinking instead?  My tentative answer involves a brief review of some scholarly theorizing, as well as a good hard look at election numbers since 1892, aided by a nice clean graph.

First off, of course, "don't take anything for granted" remains as true as ever.  But increasingly, people are realizing that the prospect of a massive "wave" victory can be just as motivating as fear of defeat.  Perhaps even moreso.  But what is this "wave" we speak of?  Some tell us it is rare event, that comes only once or twice in a lifetime ("water flowing underground").  This raises three questions: (1) What do they mean by that?  (2) Is it true?  (3) If so, what does that mean?

The first-take answers are:

(1) They are talking about so-called "critical" or "realigning" elections.
(2) They are relatively rare, but more like once-every-10-to-20 year events, if we count "sub-critical" elections the experts don't all agree on, but are noticeably not run-of-the-mill.
(3) This is a huge opportunity, and Dems should make the most of it.

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This is in geographic order, and I don't claim it to be complete to any particular list.  But I thought it would be interesting/useful--if nothing else to show which of our candidates most need donations now.  By geographic order, I mean that I started in Ohio (my home state) and basically worked my way through the Midwest, West, South, then Northeast.

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Chris has a couple of interesting pieces yesterday and today suggesting that the probable Dem win in the House - and likely win in the Senate - could be attributed to the merits of the Dems - in particular, the increasing influence of lefties, not least in the netroots - as much or more than that serial snafus of the regime.

Let me give another perspective.

The fourth Congress of a prez is usually either a washout or something worse for him. Chickens come home to roost, he's got nothing worthwhile in the way of patronage, everyone's attention is on the next election - it's generally a blank period for him to get his affairs (book contracts and the like) in order and keep his head well down away from the incoming.

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Can anyone help provide source for Democraticavenger's Sep 30 post All of Foley's Money?

I'm working to oust Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, the Republican incumbent in FL-18, and it's wonderful to see her listed as giving money to Foley in the current election cycle. I'm trying to find out how much and on what date. It's not emerging from search at fec.

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