Zogby: Obama leads in ARIZONA

by zcflint05, Sat Jul 12, 2008 at 11:34:55 PM EST

An interesting (if not a bit questionable poll) from Zogby is out, and the results are mildly surprising:

http://www.azcentral.com/news/election/e lection08/articles/2008/07/10/20080710mc cainpoll0710.html

The poll conducted by Zogby International, an independent polling firm, showed Democrat Obama with 42 percent to Republican McCain's 39 percent. Libertarian Bob Barr was at 7 percent.

I expect Barr to poll well here; but I don't know how since he's not terribly well known. Arizona Rethugs have a libertarian streak in them; and with all that "wild west" bullshit don't particularly take to people like McCain too well. In fact, McCain failed to even reach 50% in the Feb. GOP primary here, primarily due to social conservatives and the large mormon population backing Mittens Romney.

I take the poll with a huge grain of salt, one because's it's online and two because it's Zogby, but I still think that Arizona might be in play; not alot of people share a close personal "Home state" connection with McAncient here, as the state is transplant heavy and getting more purple by the minute. But we haven't had too reliable of a pollster here yet; minus SurveyUSA's drive-by state polls earlier this year, so we'll see. But it's obvious that McCain is at least struggling to garner support here. This guy's gonna get smoked.




Tags: Arizona, General Election, John McCain (all tags)

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Re: Zogby: Obama leads in ARIZONA (none / 0)

No chance in hell that that's accurate.  Zogby's nuts.


by rfahey22 on Sat Jul 12, 2008 at 11:38:26 PM EST

That's a Zogby Interactive poll (2.00 / 1)

Which is trash.


by Angry White Democrat on Sat Jul 12, 2008 at 11:39:59 PM EST

Re: Zogby: Obama leads in ARIZONA (none / 0)

I know it's fashionable to trash Zogby, but his polls are OOC this season.  Just yesterday I was browsing his electoral map (he did polls in something like 30 states) and his results were just beyond questionable - putting Obama over 20 points in states totalling over 280 electoral votes.  Had Obama up by six in NC.  9 in VA.


We should be able to deliver bottled hot water to dehydrated babies.
by Jess81 on Sat Jul 12, 2008 at 11:40:29 PM EST

Re: Zogby: Obama leads in ARIZONA (none / 0)

err i dont really trust zogby-


by alyssa chaos on Sat Jul 12, 2008 at 11:44:02 PM EST

Re: Zogby: Obama leads in ARIZONA (none / 0)

would love this to be true but haha.. zogby is such a joke that it is almost impossible to discredit this poll.. next... how much is obama leading in montana by?


by gladiatorsback on Sat Jul 12, 2008 at 11:44:30 PM EST

Re: Zogby: Obama leads in ARIZONA (2.00 / 1)

While I agree that Zogby is FAR from reliable....it is still nice to see Arizona poll numbers showing McCain losing!
Even better, I am sure that these numbers will be the cause of several Republican exploding heads.
lol
by Kysen on Sat Jul 12, 2008 at 11:49:33 PM EST

Re: Zogby: Obama leads in ARIZONA (2.00 / 1)

This is part of his 34-state poll dump, which showed Obama leading in AZ, 9 points ahead in NC, 1 point ahead in SC, only 3 points down in TX, 5 points down in TN, KY and OK of all places.

The key to dismissing this poll dump is in the methodology:

Zogby International conducted an online survey of 3,647 likely voters. The poll ran from June 11-30. It carries a margin of error of +/- 1.7 percentage points.

Two problems with this poll. It is an ONLINE poll, and second, it was conducted over a 3 week period. So essentially, this poll is TRASH.

Move on.


Restore America's Strength.
by RJEvans on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 12:19:16 AM EST

Re: Zogby: Obama leads in ARIZONA (none / 0)

+/- 1.7 MOE for an online, three week poll? Is that a joke? I know I always lie to Zogby, anyway. But Bob Barr is the new McCain! That's a tagline!


Barack Obama is my President
by Jeter on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 04:29:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby: Obama leads in ARIZONA (none / 0)

That's another thing - Barr was consistently getting 5, 7, 8 points nationwide.  

Now I have a huge political blindspot for the sort of people who would vote for Bob Barr, but if Nader couldn't crack 3%, I can't see Bob Barr improving on that.


We should be able to deliver bottled hot water to dehydrated babies.
by Jess81 on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 10:09:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

except (none / 0)

that 2008 is not 2000.

There are ALOT of GOP voters who really don't like McCain, he wasn't thier first, second or even third choice at all.

This could lead Barr to performing quite well; granted we need to take this polls with some massive salt but it's still interesting and worth noting


-7.33, -3.35 The song that best describes life
by drache on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 10:45:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]

except (none / 0)

that 2008 is not 2000.

There are ALOT of GOP voters who really don't like McCain, he wasn't thier first, second or even third choice at all.

This could lead Barr to performing quite well; granted we need to take this polls with some massive salt but it's still interesting and worth noting


-7.33, -3.35 The song that best describes life
by drache on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 10:45:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby: Obama leads in ARIZONA (2.00 / 2)

I put no faith in this poll.  

However, the fact that there any chatter about McCain's homestate being even potentially in play has got to be a psychological blow to the Repubs.

If we do, somehow, win AZ I'll wear a shit-eating grin for a month!


January 20 & sricki join with The engels in love!
by January 20 on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 12:24:51 AM EST

online poll... (2.00 / 1)

nuff said


vote blue in 2008
by sepulvedaj3 on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 12:29:07 AM EST

Re: Zogby: Obama leads in ARIZONA (2.00 / 1)

By the way, if you're going to mention Zogby's online poll, I might as well mention AOL's online poll.

McCain: 64%
Obama: 36%

McCain has a 50-state sweep. All red.

Over 182,000 votes.

McCain leads NY by 14%, leads IL by 20%, leads HI by 14%. OMG, what's going on!

See...


Restore America's Strength.
by RJEvans on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 12:40:48 AM EST

Re: Zogby: Obama leads in ARIZONA (none / 0)

Forgot link: http://news.aol.com/political-machine/20 08/07/07/aol-straw-poll-july-7-14


Restore America's Strength.
by RJEvans on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 12:41:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]

AOL's Credibility is... (none / 0)

...an oxymoronic term.

I vote a good TEN times on every poll there! Brings new definition to the term: "vote often!'

Of course, AOL is kind of like the Internet on training wheels...real websurfers go elsewhere. <grin>


by bobswern on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 12:47:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: AOL's Credibility is... (2.00 / 3)

The only people I know still using AOL are all older than McCain.


Sexism is real.
by grassrootsorganizer on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 01:15:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby: Obama leads in ARIZONA (none / 0)

One thing with Zogby is that if you don't believe this poll, he'll have another one tomorrow, and a different one the next day. You might just say Zogby is fulla polls.


The man who reads nothing at all is better educated than the man who reads nothing but newspapers. -- Thomas Jefferson
by pollbuster on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 12:54:58 AM EST

all that "wild west" bullshit (none / 0)

That's a common misconception about Zonies. Few Arizonans buy into the wild west sterotype because, as with other sunbelt states, many if not most have moved here from someplace else.

Another myth is that AZ is a lock for the GOP. Clinton won AZ in 96 and it was sheer incompetence that Gore and Kerry conceded it without even a whimper.

And McCrazy is not popular in AZ, even among Republicans. I'm in Phoenix and have yet to see ONE McNut yard sign or bumper sticker.

If Obama comes here he'll wow us into his column for sure (to hell with traditional etiquette).


by Beren on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 02:31:49 AM EST

Re: Zogby: Obama leads in ARIZONA (2.00 / 1)

Zogby recently wrote an Op-ed in his website trashing Bill Clinton and he is an ardent Obama supporter.


by kingsbridge77 on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 10:34:21 AM EST

Zogby polls are not the problem (2.00 / 1)

It's the Zogby Interactive online polls that are complete garbage.  I honestly don't know why he continues releasing them to the public.  They just make him and his whole outfit look bad.


by hello world on Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 11:44:55 AM EST


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