After her overwhelming victory in West Virginia in which she made Obama look like a rookie, instead of a "presumptive nominee," Clinton is poised once again to thump Barack Obama in another Appalachian Primary.
Hillary to trounce Obama in Kentucky
The lastest polls from Kentucky indicate she will repeat the landslide victory she enjoyed in the neighboring state of West Virginia, despite the Edwards endorsement for Obama which was expected anyway. With 1.6 million voters expected to go to the polls, it is looking like another big popular vote night for Clinton. She is well on her way to winning the overall popular vote, and is expected to overtake Obama after the Puerto Rico primary is counted.
Kentucky is Clinton Country
Hillary has also received the endorsements of four of Kentucky's former Governors as well as hundreds of state and local officials, her campaign has reported today. Despite the insistence by both the media and Obama supporters that "it's over for Clinton", she continues to receive important endorsements from across the nation. Therefore, in retrospect this campaign is not "over" until it is "over" which won't be until June 3 as far as Hillary is concerned.
Kentucky Endorses Clinton
Keep a close eye on what happens on May 31 in Washington D.C. when the bylaws committee convenes to decide the fate of the delegates and votes in Michigan and Florida. We may in fact be very surprised by the decision of that committee, one that the Obama folks may find very disheartening. Word has it that the Clinton campaign has enough votes on that committee to seat all delegates and count all votes. In which case things will look much different since the delegate tally will be 2209 and not 2026.
That brings us to the reasons that the media has published as to why Clinton should get out. They are not worth the paper they are printed on. Rather the media should examine their infactuation with Obama and look at the numbers that really matter come November.
1) "BEHIND IN PLEDGES DELEGATES AND THE MATH IS UNFAVORABLE"
Her opponent's lead in pledged delegates is slim and he can't win without super-delegates, but they think she should get out of the race. I seem to recall that the superdelegates and/or pledged delegates are free to change their minds or switch candidates at any time or for any reason, and there are many supers sitting on the fence until after June 3.
2) "OBAMA HAS WON MORE STATES"
Well that is true except for the fact that many of those states are Republican strongholds and several were caucus states and we know how they vote. Say we give Obama Oregon, SD and Montana, and give Hillary Kentucky according to what is expected in those primaries, and let's list them for our entertainment.
OBAMA STATES(30)
Alaska
Idaho
Utah
North Dakota
Nebraska
Kansas
Colorado
Wyoming
Hawaii
Minnesota
Wisconsin
Missouri
Iowa
Louisiana
Mississippi
Alabama
Georgia
South Carolina
North Carolina
Virginia
Illinois
Maryland
Delaware
Connecticut
Maine
Vermont
Washington
Oregon
South Dakota
Montana
CLINTON STATES(20)
California
Nevada
Arizona
New Mexico
Texas
Arkansas
Tennessee
Michigan
Ohio
Indiana
Pennsylvania
West Virginia
Rhode Island
New Jersey
New York
Massachusetts
New Hampshire
Oklahoma
Florida
Kentucky
NOTE: Of the 30 states that Obama has or is projected to win, (15) are Deep Red states that will vote for McCain in November for a total of 96 electoral votes. (11) are Deep Blue states for a total of 92 electoral votes including DC. Only (4) are considered Swing States, that being Colorado,Virginia,Iowa,and Missouri, for a total of 39 electoral votes. So you can see for yourself, that even if Obama were to win all of those primary or caucus states in the GE, if would still only add up to 227 electoral votes.
NOTE: Of the 20 states that Clinton has or is projected to win, only (6) are Deep Red states that would vote for McCain in November for a total of 79 Electoral votes. (5) are Deep Blue states for a total of 118 electoral votes. (9) are considered as swing states, that being, Nevada, New Mexico, Arkansas, West Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Michigan and Florida for a total of 111 electoral votes. Of the primary states that Clinton has won she would have enough electoral votes to win the general election or a total of 308 electoral votes.
Therefore, Clinton has a very strong argument to make regarding the swing states she has won in crucial areas of the country as compared to the few swing states he has won. Hillary Clinton has won primaries in the large Democratic base states of New York, Massachusetts, New Jersey, California, Ohio and Pennsylvania, all industrial states with large numbers of electoral votes that a Democrat must win in November. Obama's argument that he has won more states means very little when you compare apples to oranges.
3) "OBAMA HAS WON MORE POPULAR VOTES"
This is true so far in this election, but Clinton is projected to catch up and overtake Obama after the Primary season wraps up on June 3. Clinton may surpass her opponent in popular votes, but they say she should get out. Democrats in Michigan and Florida, two states key to victory in November and strongly in Clinton's column, did not have any chance to express their will, and still people call for her to get out.
4) "CLINTON ISN'T CONNECTING WITH BLACK VOTERS"
Maybe so, but still her opponent's supporters and many in the media think she should get out of the race even though she consistently wins among women, Catholics, seniors, Hispanics and blue-collar voters, all key elements of the Democratic coalition.
5) "OBAMA IS GAINING MORE SUPERDELEGATES"
The endorsements that Obama has received since Clinton's big win in Pennsylvania, were superdelegates that for all practical purposes were planning to endorse Obama from the beginning and came as no surprise. Still there are many more waiting on the sidelines. Will there be a June surprise? I might note that even in Indiana, where Clinton carried 83 of 92 counties, U.S. Rep. Baron Hill endorsed her opponent while she carried every county in his district except one.
Looking at the real numbers, maybe it is Obama that should get out of the race. Clinton will certainly be the stronger opponent against McCain in November.
PLEASE READ MY DIARY FROM MAY 14|
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