Electoral College Favors Clinton: The Game Isn't Over

After her overwhelming victory in West Virginia in which she made Obama look like a rookie, instead of a "presumptive nominee," Clinton is poised once again to thump Barack Obama in another Appalachian Primary.
Hillary to trounce Obama in Kentucky

The lastest polls from Kentucky indicate she will repeat the landslide victory she enjoyed in the neighboring state of West Virginia, despite the Edwards endorsement for Obama which was expected anyway. With 1.6 million voters expected to go to the polls, it is looking like another big popular vote night for Clinton. She is well on her way to winning the overall popular vote, and is expected to overtake Obama after the Puerto Rico primary is counted.
Kentucky is Clinton Country

Hillary has also received the endorsements of four of Kentucky's former Governors as well as hundreds of state and local officials, her campaign has reported today. Despite the insistence by both the media and Obama supporters that "it's over for Clinton", she continues to receive important endorsements from across the nation. Therefore, in retrospect this campaign is not "over" until it is "over" which won't be until June 3 as far as Hillary is concerned.
Kentucky Endorses Clinton

100 Kentucky Leaders Endorse Clinton

Keep a close eye on what happens on May 31 in Washington D.C. when the bylaws committee convenes to decide the fate of the delegates and votes in Michigan and Florida. We may in fact be very surprised by the decision of that committee, one that the Obama folks may find very disheartening. Word has it that the Clinton campaign has enough votes on that committee to seat all delegates and count all votes. In which case things will look much different since the delegate tally will be 2209 and not 2026.

That brings us to the reasons that the media has published as to why Clinton should get out. They are not worth the paper they are printed on. Rather the media should examine their infactuation with Obama and look at the numbers that really matter come November.

1) "BEHIND IN PLEDGES DELEGATES AND THE MATH IS UNFAVORABLE"    
Her opponent's lead in pledged delegates is slim and he can't win without super-delegates, but they think she should get out of the race. I seem to recall that the superdelegates and/or pledged delegates are free to change their minds or switch candidates at any time or for any reason, and there are many supers sitting on the fence until after June 3.

2) "OBAMA HAS WON MORE STATES"
Well that is true except for the fact that many of those states are Republican strongholds and several were caucus states and we know how they vote. Say we give Obama Oregon, SD and Montana, and give Hillary Kentucky according to what is expected in those primaries, and let's list them for our entertainment.  

OBAMA STATES(30)      
Alaska                    
Idaho                    
Utah                      
North Dakota              
Nebraska                  
Kansas                    
Colorado                  
Wyoming                  
Hawaii                    
Minnesota                
Wisconsin                
Missouri                
Iowa                      
Louisiana                
Mississippi              
Alabama                  
Georgia                  
South Carolina          
North Carolina          
Virginia                  
Illinois
Maryland
Delaware
Connecticut
Maine
Vermont
Washington
Oregon
South Dakota
Montana

CLINTON STATES(20)
California
Nevada
Arizona
New Mexico
Texas
Arkansas
Tennessee
Michigan                    
Ohio                  
Indiana
Pennsylvania
West Virginia
Rhode Island  
New Jersey
New York
Massachusetts
New Hampshire
Oklahoma
Florida
Kentucky  

NOTE: Of the 30 states that Obama has or is projected to win, (15) are Deep Red states that will vote for McCain in November for a total of 96 electoral votes. (11) are Deep Blue states for a total of 92 electoral votes including DC. Only (4) are considered Swing States, that being Colorado,Virginia,Iowa,and Missouri, for a total of 39 electoral votes. So you can see for yourself, that even if Obama were to win all of those primary or caucus states in the GE, if would still only add up to 227 electoral votes.

NOTE: Of the 20 states that Clinton has or is projected to win, only (6) are Deep Red states that would vote for McCain in November for a total of 79 Electoral votes. (5) are Deep Blue states for a total of 118 electoral votes. (9) are considered as swing states, that being, Nevada, New Mexico, Arkansas, West Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Michigan and Florida for a total of 111 electoral votes. Of the primary states that Clinton has won she would have enough electoral votes to win the general election or a total of 308 electoral votes.

Therefore, Clinton has a very strong argument to make regarding the swing states she has won in crucial areas of the country as compared to the few swing states he has won. Hillary Clinton has won primaries in the large Democratic base states of New York, Massachusetts, New Jersey, California, Ohio and Pennsylvania, all industrial states with large numbers of electoral votes that a Democrat must win in November. Obama's argument that he has won more states means very little when you compare apples to oranges.

3) "OBAMA HAS WON MORE POPULAR VOTES"
This is true so far in this election, but Clinton is projected to catch up and overtake Obama after the Primary season wraps up on June 3. Clinton may surpass her opponent in popular votes, but they say she should get out. Democrats in Michigan and Florida, two states key to victory in November and strongly in Clinton's column, did not have any chance to express their will, and still people call for her to get out.

4) "CLINTON ISN'T CONNECTING WITH BLACK VOTERS"
Maybe so, but still her opponent's supporters and many in the media think she should get out of the race even though she consistently wins among women, Catholics, seniors, Hispanics and blue-collar voters, all key elements of the Democratic coalition.

5) "OBAMA IS GAINING MORE SUPERDELEGATES"
The endorsements that Obama has received since Clinton's big win in Pennsylvania, were superdelegates that for all practical purposes were planning to endorse Obama from the beginning and came as no surprise. Still there are many more waiting on the sidelines. Will there be a June surprise? I might note that even in Indiana, where Clinton carried 83 of 92 counties, U.S. Rep. Baron Hill endorsed her opponent while she carried every county in his district except one.

Looking at the real numbers, maybe it is Obama that should get out of the race. Clinton will certainly be the stronger opponent against McCain in November.

PLEASE READ MY DIARY FROM MAY 14

Clinton's Crushing Victory Enlightens Obama's Weaknesses


Poll
Hillary will Win Kentucky By:
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
By Less than 20%

Votes: 98
Results : Vote Link : Polls

Display:


Re: Electoral College Favors Clinton (2.00 / 6)

Primary results don't correlate to the GE - see Michigan polling.

Also, I think Clinton has been getting great press recently - I know it sodns like a mirror, but I think a GE with Clinton would be really rough. Pardons, business, etc etc.


by Falsehood on Thu May 15, 2008 at 07:12:27 PM EST

Re: Electoral College Favors Clinton (2.00 / 4)

I would add two things... Voters in Florida were able to express their preference... they voted and their votes were counted... the net result was zero delegates... that does not mean that we did not make a choice or have it tallied...

"several were caucus states and we know how they vote"

Wink, wink, nudge, nudge...  I honestly wish with all of my heart that the caucus tally had been split... I really do...  Th fact of the matter is that we use caucuses... If they were so darned icky, Terry McAuliffe could have done away with them as head of the DNC... but he did not... but for a long process, there was record turnout... that excites me about our chances this year... I just hate that some people have decided to disparage caucuses just because they did not favor their candidate...

Those are two talking points I would like to see go away...


Like the nominee, don't like the nominee... Our nominee is still better than John McCain...
by JenKinFLA on Thu May 15, 2008 at 07:31:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Electoral College Favors Clinton (none / 0)

You may like them to go away, but "their not Blanch, their not." Like I said earlier, when reality set in, and it will, the Obama people will be singing a different tune. See you at the convention.


Steven Shaman Publisher Skywatch-Media News
by steve468 on Thu May 15, 2008 at 10:37:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Caucuses aren't up to DNC (2.00 / 1)

The reason states have caucuses is because it's a hell of a lot cheaper than a primary...in many states it's the only way voters would have a chance to weigh in on the nomination. The DNC chair has nothing to do with it.


by Alice in Florida on Thu May 15, 2008 at 10:55:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Is this diary divisive? (2.00 / 2)


I'm Shocked! I'm shocked!

sorry to break in, but the language is so divisive, that I'm shocked.


"McSame: He's Constipated and Ready to GO!
by Al Rodgers on Thu May 15, 2008 at 08:44:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I'm Shocked! (none / 0)

This divisive diary made the recommended list.  

Truly shocking.  


"McSame: He's Constipated and Ready to GO!
by Al Rodgers on Thu May 15, 2008 at 09:33:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Electoral College Favors Clinton: (2.00 / 7)

Quick!  Email all the SD's.  They must be made aware of this information!

Oh... and intra-party primary results have little to no bearing on the GE.



Lost rate and rec for issuing a '1' to a trollish comment. The troll, not so much.

by map on Thu May 15, 2008 at 07:14:17 PM EST

Quick! To the Idiotmobile! They must be contacted! (2.00 / 1)

13 count em 13 more Super Delegates for Obama today.

Including my State's Jim McDermott.


It's time to restore balance and fairness to our economy,... It's time to stop giving tax cuts to corporations that ship jobs overseas... - Barack Obama
by Lefty Coaster on Thu May 15, 2008 at 09:28:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

What does math mean anything? (2.00 / 1)

next, you're be telling me Obama is swimming in cash like Scrooge McDuck and Hills is 20,000,000 dollars in the hole.


"McSame: He's Constipated and Ready to GO!
by Al Rodgers on Thu May 15, 2008 at 09:38:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What does math mean anything? (2.00 / 1)

Rep. Jim McDermott owes Bill Clinton big time for helping him raise money  to pay off a million dollar court judgement to that asshole Rep. Bohnier.

Yet Jim McDermott endorsed Obama today.


It's time to restore balance and fairness to our economy,... It's time to stop giving tax cuts to corporations that ship jobs overseas... - Barack Obama
by Lefty Coaster on Fri May 16, 2008 at 01:34:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Electoral College Favors Clinton: (2.00 / 6)

Um.  Presidents have often won states in the general that they lost in the primaries.


by Reaper0Bot0 on Thu May 15, 2008 at 07:15:14 PM EST

Re: Electoral College Favors Clinton: (none / 0)

Often?

As far as megastates go,
twice in 1976
twice in 1980
none since then.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystal ball/article.php?id=FRC2008051501

per Larry Sabato


by alamedadem on Thu May 15, 2008 at 07:42:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Electoral College Favors Clinton: (2.00 / 3)

I would be glad to wager you $1000 that in Obama v McCain, Obama wins both CA and NY in November.


by mattw on Thu May 15, 2008 at 07:54:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Electoral College Favors Clinton: (2.00 / 1)

Not to mention Massachusetts/New Jersey.


by Falsehood on Thu May 15, 2008 at 09:58:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Electoral College Favors Clinton: (2.00 / 1)

What is a "megastate"?  And why is it acceptable to move the goalposts on me when I'M THE ONE WHO MADE THE ASSERTION?


by Reaper0Bot0 on Thu May 15, 2008 at 08:29:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

So only megastates get to vote now? (none / 0)


by Angry White Democrat on Thu May 15, 2008 at 09:38:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: So only megastates get to vote now? (none / 0)

In Clintonland, yes. Only "megastates" and "automatic delegates." Clinton is literally rewriting the election rules.

I heard she wants to count the delegates and popular votes from Mars and the Moon.


Obama 08!
by comingawakening on Thu May 15, 2008 at 10:27:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: So only megastates get to vote now? (none / 0)

Hey, that sounds like a plan, I'll pass it on to her. Let's include Jupiter and Venus as well.


Steven Shaman Publisher Skywatch-Media News
by steve468 on Thu May 15, 2008 at 10:39:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: So only megastates get to vote now? (none / 0)

But Obama is winning the "automatic delegates."


by Alice in Florida on Thu May 15, 2008 at 10:57:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Have you been living under a rock (none / 0)

for the last month?

The swiftboating on Wright has been nonstop.


by Angry White Democrat on Fri May 16, 2008 at 02:34:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

"Supposedly?" (none / 0)

Well, if we're going by rumors now, the Republicans supposedly have proof of more affairs (recent affairs) by Bill Clinton that they plan to bring out if Hillary becomes the nominee. Yipes!

And if you'd bothered to listen to what Obama actually said, you'd realize that he was specifically saying that the voters he was talking about when he made his "bitter" remarks weren't racists. Please educate yourself before accusing someone of playing the race card.


by Angry White Democrat on Fri May 16, 2008 at 05:06:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Thank you for your Concern (2.00 / 3)

GLaDoS shares it:

This was a triumph.
I'm making a note here: HUGE SUCCESS.
It's hard to overstate my satisfaction.
I'm so CONCERNED
I do what I must
because I can.
For the 'good' of all of us.
Except the ones who are calm.
But there's lots sense crying over every mistake.
You just keep on being 'concerned' till you run out of cake.
And the Doubt gets sowed.
And you annoy the bold
For the people who are still calm.

I'm not even concerned.
I'm being so insincere right now.
Even though you broke my talking points.
And mocked me.
And tore my points into pieces.
And threw every piece into a fire.
As they burned it hurt because I was so concerned for you!

Now these points of "data" make a beautiful line.
And we're out of talking points.
We're concerned all the time.
So I'm GLaD. I got concerned.
Think of all the things we tried
on the people who are still bold.
Go ahead and leave me.
I think I prefer to stay concerned.
Maybe John McCain
THAT WAS A JOKE.
HAHA. FAT CHANCE.
Anyway, this concern is great.
It's so delicious and moist.
Look at me still talking
when there's doubt to be sown.
When I look out there, it makes me GLaD I'm concerned.
I've diaries to right.
There is logic to fight.
from the people who are still bold.
And believe me I am still concerned.
I'm doing not so well and I'm still Concerned.
I feel CONCERNED but you're still calm.
While you're calm I'll be still concerned.
And when you're victorious I will be still concerned.
STILL CONCERNED


Student Guy=JoeMentum. No really Student Guy=JoeMentum, after all JoeMentum was an embarrassment so is Student Guy. This sig is FAIL!!
by Student Guy on Thu May 15, 2008 at 07:22:12 PM EST

Re: Thank you for your Concern (2.00 / 1)

best game ever.

that is all.

/gobama


by Lit Up on Thu May 15, 2008 at 10:20:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Electoral College Favors Clinton (2.00 / 6)

From electoral-vote.com:

Electoral Votes:
Clinton 280    
McCain 241    
Ties 17

Polling data used to produce the map

Electoral Votes:
Obama 237    
McCain 290    
Ties 11

Polling data used to produce the map


by Hurdy Gurdy on Thu May 15, 2008 at 07:23:37 PM EST

Your data (2.00 / 3)

Its stale.

No one is polling states frequently enough these days to make an accurate snapshot of the current state, much less a projection.


John McCain wants to make abortion illegal
by Lost Thought on Thu May 15, 2008 at 07:27:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Electoral College Favors Clinton (2.00 / 7)

By posting those maps, you've just proved Obama supporters' point.

Clinton has the same old electoral map that lost us the 2000 and 2004 elections. She'll be forced to play defense in the upper Midwest and Northwest, while McCain goes all-in in Florida, Michigan, Ohio and Indiana.

Obama locks up the Northwest and Upper Midwest (I don't believe that he's losing WI), while putting the Piedmont South and Mountain West in play. McCain will still have to play in Florida, Michigan, Ohio and Indiana because Obama's hardly uncompetitive there. Heck, Barack puts ALASKA in play, for God's sake.

There is a lot more "barely Republican" and "lean Republican" on Barack's map than Clinton's. He reduces the "solid Republican base" to a few states in the Deep South and Appalachia. I'll trade KY and WV for VA, CO, NV and IN, any day.


by Last Frontier Democrat on Thu May 15, 2008 at 07:35:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Electoral College Favors Clinton (2.00 / 5)

For a more meaningful analysis, based on size of the lead:

Barack Obama:
     Strong Dem (142)
     Weak Dem (86)
     Barely Dem (9)
     Exactly tied (11)
     Barely GOP (120)
     Weak GOP (73)
     Strong GOP (97)

Hillary Clinton:
     Strong Dem (130)
     Weak Dem (121)
     Barely Dem (29)
     Exactly tied (17)
     Barely GOP (45)
     Weak GOP (51)
     Strong GOP (145)

Barack has a larger strong Democratic base and cuts the strong Republican base by one-third. He puts states in play that Hillary can never dream of competing in.


by Last Frontier Democrat on Thu May 15, 2008 at 07:40:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Electoral College Favors Clinton (2.00 / 1)

Would you mind explaining this chart. Like what the hell are you talking about?


Steven Shaman Publisher Skywatch-Media News
by steve468 on Thu May 15, 2008 at 07:50:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Obama's Nov. Victory Map Will Look Like Van Gogh. (2.00 / 3)


by dystopianfuturetoday on Thu May 15, 2008 at 07:59:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's Nov. Victory Map Will Look Like Van Go (2.00 / 1)

That's the most awesome explanation I've ever seen.  Love it!


by The Distillery on Thu May 15, 2008 at 08:33:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's Nov. Victory Map Will Look Like Van Go (none / 0)

You are a paragon of the blogger who doesn't suffer fools gladly.

Please post more.  


We should be able to deliver bottled hot water to dehydrated babies.
by Jess81 on Fri May 16, 2008 at 01:39:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Electoral College Favors Clinton (2.00 / 1)

Steve, may we republish your diary at NoQuarter?  e-mail me to confirm at susanunpc at gmail dot com -- i require e-mail confirmation rather than reply here (partly because i'm afraid i'll miss a comment reply)


by susanhu on Thu May 15, 2008 at 08:44:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Electoral College Favors Clinton (none / 0)

Well that's obvious


John McCain is surprisingly bad for this country
by minnesotaryan on Thu May 15, 2008 at 09:35:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Electoral College Favors Clinton (2.00 / 1)

Perhaps we could just move the entire diary there! Much easier than simply re-publishing :)


John McCain wants to make abortion illegal
by Lost Thought on Thu May 15, 2008 at 10:33:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

3 IDS?? (none / 0)

SusanHu
Anna Shane
SusanUnPC

Dang you get around with various IDs don't ya.


by Regenman on Fri May 16, 2008 at 01:49:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Electoral College Favors Clinton (2.00 / 2)

Just looking quickly at the map:

It shows Michigan leaning McCain, but if you look at the polling Obama is within 1 in the last two polls: a statistical tie.  And that is with McCain having campaigned there and Obama not campaigning there.


United we stand, divided we fall.
by mefeck on Thu May 15, 2008 at 07:46:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Same thing with Ohio (2.00 / 1)

RCP has in at +3.4% for McCain and trending closer
Pollster has it at 1.4%
The last poll was McCain +1%.

It is really close and in a month I bet it will flip to a lead of 2 points for Obama.


Student Guy=JoeMentum. No really Student Guy=JoeMentum, after all JoeMentum was an embarrassment so is Student Guy. This sig is FAIL!!
by Student Guy on Thu May 15, 2008 at 08:06:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Same thing with Ohio (2.00 / 1)

I agree.  Obama always tracks better after a state gets to know him and MI has not had the benefit of "knowing" him yet.


United we stand, divided we fall.
by mefeck on Thu May 15, 2008 at 08:13:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Same thing with Ohio (none / 0)

Remember how far back he was everywhere before Super Tuesday?


by Falsehood on Thu May 15, 2008 at 10:01:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Electoral College Favors Clinton (none / 0)

Hillary Clinton will win Nevada in November.  

Talking with about 80 locals last weekend in Las Vegas, I believe that Obama would lose Nevada.


by wblynch on Thu May 15, 2008 at 09:32:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Electoral College Favors Clinton (none / 0)

80 people you know? Nice polling!


John McCain is surprisingly bad for this country
by minnesotaryan on Thu May 15, 2008 at 09:36:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Apparently it needs to be explained again (none / 0)

GE polls this far out mean nothing. If they meant anything, we'd be at the end of President Gore's second term right now.

And Hillary's poll numbers are inflated right now because the Republicans have been giving her a pass in order to throw everything they have at Obama.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/040 8/9964.html

Her numbers right now are her high-water mark. If she were to somehow get the nomination, the GOP attacks would begin, and she has nowhere to go but down.


by Angry White Democrat on Thu May 15, 2008 at 09:41:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Plus (none / 0)

Aren't her negatives pretty high?  Kind of correlates with your idea that she's as high as she probably can go.

See: http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/ statements/348/


Guess I HR'd someone that I shouldn't have (wish I knew who/how/why, but no admin will talk to me). Have a positive thought instead.
by Robert in WV on Thu May 15, 2008 at 10:06:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Electoral College Favors Clinton: Obama Awaits (2.00 / 2)

All these arguments are old news. They've been debunked over and over and over again, but you still cling to them because they're all you have.  Yes, Hillary will win by a large margin in KY just like she won by a large margin in WV-- these states are in the center of Appalachia, a place where Clinton has always polled strongly vs. Obama.  Fortunately, both of these contests will be equally pointless.  Clinton needs to win over 70% of the remaining delegates (super and pledged) to win.  Obama needs less than 30%.  Simply put, this is a race for delegates and Clinton has already lost.


by brathor on Thu May 15, 2008 at 07:27:31 PM EST

I hope you're right (none / 0)

about the RBC on May 31.  I've told myself for the last 6 months there's no way the Democratic party could go to the convention with 48 states.  Listening to Donna Brazile on CNN has tempered my expectations that the RBC and DNC will do the only right, sensible thing and seat MI and FL.  Just a couple more weeks and we'll know.


by Makarov on Thu May 15, 2008 at 07:27:54 PM EST

Re: I hope you're right (2.00 / 1)

Hillary said yesterday morning on CBS with Katie Couric that unless Michigan and Florida are fully counted and the number she stated is 2209, this race is not over. PERIOD!
VIDEO
Steven Shaman Publisher Skywatch-Media News
by steve468 on Thu May 15, 2008 at 07:45:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

That would be sad. (2.00 / 3)

If MI and FL are settled on the 31st, and she disavows it because they weren't settled her way, the supers will hand her her hat, and that would be a very sad way to go out. I hope she won't choose that route.


John McCain supports privatizing Social Security.
by Travis Stark on Thu May 15, 2008 at 07:56:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I hope you're right (2.00 / 2)

Considering Obama looks like he's locked up to get all of Edwards outstanding delegates, which would include any from Florida, and all the uncommitted delegates from Michigan officially now, I don't see what benefit this could have for you to have FL and MI set in full.


Hooray for John McCain!
by ragekage on Thu May 15, 2008 at 08:13:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Trouble Is (2.00 / 1)

that Clinton doesn't get to change the rules on her own.

Just for the sake of argument, let's say that a Clinton-dominated rules committee votes to include all the delegates from FL and MI.  Clinton would still be in second place, and after that power play, does anyone really think the supers would say, Gee, she really does deserve to win!


by deminva on Thu May 15, 2008 at 09:01:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The rules allowed a re-vote. Obama stopped it. (2.00 / 1)

Both states were free to hold their primaries again as long as they were beyond the prohibited date.  The money was raised to fund the primaries and the Obama supporters in the legislature of Michigan were waiting for Obama to approve the new primary.  He refused. His supporters joined the Republicans and outvoted the other Democrats who were trying to re- vote.  

So let's see.  First Obama takes his name off the ballot because he was trying to curry favor (successfully!) with Iowa, etc, and knowing he was going to lose in Michigan.  Second, when the re=vote allowed in the rules is set to go, he refuses to allow it, knowing he would probably lose again.

So now the party needs to make it right for the voters and for Clinton. You cannot have any process that lets Obama previent the counting of votes against him!

About the rules in Florida.  The Clinton campaign has not exercised their rights on Florida, but they have the right to demand all of the delegates elected there for Obama be awarded to Hillary.  Why?  Because they signed an agreement that they could raise funds in Florida but they could not run ads.  He and Hillary each went to Florida to fund raisers and after the votes were in and counted, Hillary had a rally to thank the voters for voting for her.  All within the rules.

 But Senator Obama ran ads in Florida several times.  He kept saying "oops" claiming it was overzealous staff  .  Another time he blamed Time Warner Cable.  Said they would not cut Florida and Michigan out of thes national ad buys, although they did cut out for other candidates.

Then he blamed geography, saying his ads were beeing seen in most of Florida because he was actually running them on the borders of the neighboring states....even after those states had already voted!

What do the rules of the agreement say will happen to a candidate who ran ads inn Florida or Michigan?  The penalty is complete forfiture of all delegates won in Michigan and Florida.

Obama broke the rules repeatedly to run those ads and has not been charged a single delegate.  Now he accuses Hillary of trying to change the rules and he wants delegates he never got the votes for instead of forfiting all of his delegates in each state.

Don't talk about changing rules!  The rules always  had appeals processes and credentialling processes written in.  And the rules say a delegate's vote can't be final and counted until the convention.

Now he is trying to stop the funding of Democratic causes and issue organizations, funnel all the contributions to him and then dole out funds and mailing lists according to who endorses him, including directing funding to superdelegates' action committees.  This guy is not into demecratic process, if anyone wants to look closely at his behavior.

Google this stuff before parroting the 'she wants to change the rules' meme here.  And don't believe Donna Brazile.  She is an extreme partisan Obama supporter and has used her microphone for him while claiming to be a neutral expert on the rules.  Just chack them out and be your own expert.


by itsadryheat on Thu May 15, 2008 at 09:43:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The rules allowed a re-vote. Obama stopped it. (2.00 / 2)

Absolutely untrue...the state officials in both states declined to dedicate resources to a re-vote. In Florida Karen Thurman circulated a plan to have a private group conduct a mail-in primary after the Republican legislature refused to allow a public re-vote, and most Democratic party activists had negative reactions to the plan which was rather hastily put together and lacking detail and generally sounded like a recipe for disaster. I don't know the details in Michigan, but I remember reading that legislative leaders there turned down the "firehouse primary" idea there. Obama may not have wanted a revote at that time, but he wasn't the one who stopped it.


by Alice in Florida on Thu May 15, 2008 at 11:08:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I'm talking about the plan funded by Corzine and (none / 0)

a group of large donors he put together to fund Michigan and Florida.  They had the money all committed and ready.  The would be full secret ballot primaries as opposed to mail in and caucus votes.

This is different from the plan you are aware of and came later.  The legislators who voted no were the Republicans, who want Michigan to go red in Nov because of being dissed by the dems, and the Obama supporting legislators who voted no when he disapproved.  The outvoted the Dems who wanted a primary that would count. Check it out.


by itsadryheat on Fri May 16, 2008 at 01:50:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Bigger point (2.00 / 3)

It is not necessarily that he lost the states. The question is what are the reasons he lost the states. He lost because, despite the rhetoric, his coalition hasn't been terribly broad  particularly since March. Ultimately the question is, will Obama be able to pull together a Clinton like coalition by November. If  he can't he doesn't have a chance, if he can he is the next President. Hillary already has that coalition, the only question for her is, can she pull a strong black vote notwithstanding eventhough she knocked off a black candidate who was "oh so close". Hillary has a better base to start with, I think that is hard to argue. Fortunetly or Unfortunetly Caucus states were not her strong suit and the campaign didn't plan for that.

If Obama's weakness' in the general are the same weakness' he has had in the primary then John McCain will be President


Voices in the Wilderness
by Wiseprince on Thu May 15, 2008 at 07:29:19 PM EST

All the general election argumenst are silly. (2.00 / 1)

They make the assumption that Obama is not going to pick up Hillary's vote and all those people are going to vote for McCain. Obama will pick up his vote and most of Hillary's, plus he gets the whole general election to convince the remaining voters. You folks want to deny Obama the nomination based upon the general election that hasn't happened yet, because the election that has happened, the primary season, he won and Hillary lost. Gotta tell ya. This argument ain't gonna fly as a reason for the supers to take the nomination away from him. Prepare yourselves.


John McCain supports privatizing Social Security.
by Travis Stark on Thu May 15, 2008 at 07:59:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: All the general election argumenst are silly. (2.00 / 2)

You must not know any Hillary supporters because if you did you would think twice before asserting he will pick most of them up.


by Tolstoy on Thu May 15, 2008 at 08:25:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: All the general election argumenst are silly. (2.00 / 1)

You are a jackass.  I know plenty of Hillary supporters.  Friends, relatives, and so on.  I know exactly ONE of them, in real life, who has said he won't vote for Obama in November.

The oddball is you.


by Reaper0Bot0 on Thu May 15, 2008 at 08:33:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: All the general election argumenst are silly. (2.00 / 2)

There are many nasty names available to throw back at you but instead I'll just rate you lower than a troll.


by Tolstoy on Thu May 15, 2008 at 08:51:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Exactly. The crew that is threatening to bolt... (2.00 / 2)

is a small minority, and one Hillary personally concedes and campaigns for Obama, and we have a chance to have a general election, then those who would allow McCain to be President instead of Obama, were really voting for Hillary for some oddball reasons, not principles.


John McCain supports privatizing Social Security.
by Travis Stark on Thu May 15, 2008 at 08:52:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: All the general election argumenst are silly. (none / 0)

do all of you talk or something?  I was under the impression from polls that Obama polls pretty much the same as Hillary amongst white voters, he just gets his ass kicked in the Appalachian area.  But let me know if there are meetings or something where all of you mind meld and decide how you are going to vote.


by Xris on Thu May 15, 2008 at 08:33:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I know a lot of Hillary supporters (2.00 / 2)

who are already on board with Obama, including people who were involved in the grassroots campaign for Clinton (unaffiliated with the actual campaign) in Florida.


by Alice in Florida on Thu May 15, 2008 at 11:10:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: (2.00 / 3)

For starters lets all agree BO is not going to lose either MI or WI and i dont care what polls say otherwise as the election gets closer the tradiation blue states will come around. There is no way imho that the dems lose either of these states.

The real issue is three states.  NH, NM, and CO.  BO has to win CO and NM if he want to win the GE and these are the states he should be concentrating his resources on.

david


by giusd on Thu May 15, 2008 at 07:33:18 PM EST

Re: (2.00 / 1)

I disagree with this blanket statement. It's way, way too early in the game (and the map is way too much in play) to say that there's two states any candidate "has to win."

CO + NM = 14 EVs.

VA = 13 EVs.

NC = 15 EVs.

VA + AK = 16 EVs.

The list goes on.

What's great about the Obama map is that there are a lot more possibilities than the Clinton/Kerry/Gore map.


by Last Frontier Democrat on Thu May 15, 2008 at 07:47:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: (none / 0)

Sorry but i just dont beleive that BO can win VA or NC that seems really unlikely since he does so poorly with reagan democratics. And AR i have not seen one poll where he losing by less than 10%.

And i dont know what list you are talking about.  Is Bo going to win NE or SD.  Come on.  You can write down as many states as you want but show me some polling that suggests any swing state other than CO where BO is winning.

david


by giusd on Thu May 15, 2008 at 07:55:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: (none / 0)

Just because you haven't seen it happen in awhile doesn't mean it won't. This is one of the prime reasons I dislike Senator Clinton; to me, she exemplifies this attitude of "Eh, who cares about these states? They'll never be Democratic. Fuck 'em."

Obama's polling ahead of McCain in the NOVA and Tidewater regions, and is within three points in Southwestern Virginia. Really, if he drives the totals in NOVA, Richmond, Norfolk, and Roanoke, he's got the state, easy. We did elect Senator Jim Webb, remember, please. VA is definitely a possible pickup for Obama, but not for Clinton.

Furthermore, Obama has more room to trade than Clinton. Clinton, realistically, has to pull both OH and FL to make things go, and if you think Florida's a given for Clinton, I'll tell you now- get real.


Hooray for John McCain!
by ragekage on Thu May 15, 2008 at 08:16:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: (2.00 / 1)

Well,

We I am sory that clinton model to win the GE makes you dislike her.  We had the white house for 8 years using this model and if it wasnt for some totally unbeleivalbe things Gore would have won useing this model in 2000.  So imho you are upset with a model to win the GE that dems have done very well with.

I am not sure Northern VA, Richmond, and Norfolk are enough to win VA.  While it is purple now it has a big military state and McCain is going to do really well there.  And the last poll i saw had McCain by almost 10%.

In addition, you are really putting words into my post and the clinton's and this is a classic strawman.  You decide what the clintons think (Fuck'em) and then you criticism them for what you have decided that they have said.  So for examply didnt BO do the same thing in WV.  I mean he pulled out and didnt even contast the state.  Is he saying fuck'em to WV.  I dont thing so.

In addition, (not that it matters) but if HRC was the candidate she could easily win the GE without FL.  She would win WV, OH, and AR and that would be 31 electoral votes that bush won in both 2000 and 2004.  

If you add the states that Gore won and NH (where HRC was doing better than BO against McCain) you get to 295 electoral votes.  And even if HRC lost IA she would still be at 288.  That means she could lose any combination of Gore states that equal less that 20 and still get to 269 so i think you comment that she has to win both OH and FL is not correct.  

However, with FL she is well over 300 electoral votes.

david


by giusd on Thu May 15, 2008 at 08:33:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: (none / 0)

The Clinton "map" doesn't mean anybody dislikes her.  It means that it is invalid.  It is the basis for both of Bill's sub-50% victories and Kerry and Gore's losses.  

Why do we want to commit ourselves to a losing strategy out of the gate?


by zadura on Fri May 16, 2008 at 12:11:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Valid Point (2.00 / 3)

There isn't any, but you have to consider that fact that these Obama folks are still living in fantasy land. Angels are going to hover over Obama and trumpets will sound to carry him to a miraculous victory in all 50 states. Call it a miracle, from the "messiah"


Steven Shaman Publisher Skywatch-Media News
by steve468 on Thu May 15, 2008 at 08:27:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Valid Point (2.00 / 1)

He's more competitive in more states, and he raises money like gangbusters.

He can afford to contest states that the Republicans cannot afford to defend.


by Reaper0Bot0 on Thu May 15, 2008 at 08:34:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

How many counties? If you are counting states... (none / 0)

let's count counties.  Hillary by a landslide!  She wins 105 counties in a state and he barely wins the state with his 5 counties.  She does it is state after state. He wins a few urban counties with high percentages of Black voters (factist, not racist, for those tempted)

So should we elect the one who won most counties?  If not, let's not hear the most states argument.  Some states were won with a few thousand caucus votes and some with hundreds of thousands.  Some states don't have enough democrates, by far, to outvote the republicans.

Some states usually elect republicans with a whole lot of help from democrats who would vote for a conservative military man like Jim Webb, but not a "liberal" anti war elitist like Obama.  And who would vote for a hard working Clinton who relates to them.

And have you Obama folks really noticed the exit polls from Massachusetts?  The only state where Obama got only 37% of the Black vote.

Ask Black voters why?  They think they have seen the future of the country with a President Obama by looking at his friend, plagerized speech supplier and Axelrod client, Deval Patrick, now far enough into the govornership in Mass. for buyers' remorse to have set in big time in the community.  And even Pactrick behaves and sounds just like a man who does not like or enjoy doing the job he ran so hard to win.  

They saw Patrick in Obama and voted for Hillary in droves.  What you might call the country's highest information voters on what to expect from a President Obama.  So don't assume he will win Massachusetts.


by itsadryheat on Thu May 15, 2008 at 10:47:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Wrong urban eggheads (none / 0)

I guess you forget that most of us eggheads live in those urban communities.

You know, us lowly upper middle class eggheads that have graduate degrees and actually donate money to the party.


by Regenman on Fri May 16, 2008 at 01:51:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I wouldn't call you an egghead. You missed it! (none / 0)

I was saying that the Massachusetts African American community voted only 37% for Obama.  I called THEM the 'highest information voters' on the subject of Obama as President.  I did that because they had looked at Patrick and believed in him in the campaign and now understood how unsuited he was for the job, how he didn't seem to like it, work at it, seemed bored and whiny and was very bad at it.  

They saw his big buddy Obama who sounded like him, partially thanks to their shared guru, David Axelrod, and partially due to stolen speeches.  They saw a guy selling pie in the sky with no credentials and no plans.

They recognized the flim flam and refused to vote for Obama.  I can understand it was also a pride issue.  They lifted Patrick up and enfolded and supported him and he embarrasses the community with what he has done with the honor they gave him.  Been there; done that.

The Black community in other states have given Obama 2 or 3 times those numbers, but they haven't the benefit of the trial run those in Massachusetts have been through.

Now do you understand my use of high information voter?"
If I understand you you think I didn't see you?  Did you see that 58% of West Virginia voters has college and voted Hillary 61 - 30 and 14% had post graduate degrees and they went for Hillary by 15 points over Obama.  And remember the Philly, wealthy, educated 'burbs that Obama had wrapped up?  Nope, Hillary swept them clean.  That is why his game changed to call the race over quickly before the media and superdelegates caught on to his much lower than expected turnout of new voters, Blacks and high income, high earning, liberals.  That is what caused this frantic rush to get the race called at once and not wait a couple of weeks.  That and the Chicago investigations!

Speaking of liberals, did your eggness notice that 34% of the West Virginia voters were liberals and they voted for Hillary 67 -Obama 29?  And 13% were listed as 'very liberal' (there was no progressive caqtegory) and the very liberals voted for Hillary 72 %.


by itsadryheat on Fri May 16, 2008 at 05:36:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Virginia (2.00 / 2)

Virginia's current governor and last governor are both Democrats.   In 2006 we flipped one senate seat from red to blue, and in 2008 we will flip our second senate seat from red to blue.

Virginia democrats resoundingly chose Barack Obama, and this is a state that is getting closer to blue with every election.

With Obama on the top of the ticket, Virginia is definitely in play.


by Virginia Liberal on Thu May 15, 2008 at 09:12:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Your wrong (2.00 / 2)

David,

Obama has to win Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida and West Virginia or he is finished. Forget about those small states in the west that only have 3 or 4 electoral votes. Best they concentrate on the big states, like Hillary has done.


Steven Shaman Publisher Skywatch-Media News
by steve468 on Thu May 15, 2008 at 07:48:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Your wrong (none / 0)

A lot of good it did her in the primary (snark)


by NewOaklandDem on Thu May 15, 2008 at 07:54:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Your wrong (none / 0)

Not to jump in on Hillary's side, but the fact is most states do not award electoral votes on a proportional basis. On the other hand, the election is not being held today, and I think when the actual campaign kicks in McCain will be going down...it will be "the economy, stupid" all over again, with McCain as "stupid."


by Alice in Florida on Thu May 15, 2008 at 11:17:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Your wrong (1.00 / 1)

Yeah because that's worked reaaly well for her hasn't it??? LOL LOL
Go back to reporting on UFO sitings.
"In the primary you should vote with your heart, but in the general, you should vote with your head" Hillary's husband
by venician on Thu May 15, 2008 at 07:58:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Your wrong (2.00 / 1)

As soon as you give me the latest report from Alice in her wonderland.


Steven Shaman Publisher Skywatch-Media News
by steve468 on Thu May 15, 2008 at 08:29:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

West Virginia (none / 0)

is a big state now with it's 5 electoral votes...
Nevada has 5 and will have 6 in 2010, Colorado has 8, Iowa has 7 (probably 6 in 2010) New Mexico has 5.

The little states can add up.


Student Guy=JoeMentum. No really Student Guy=JoeMentum, after all JoeMentum was an embarrassment so is Student Guy. This sig is FAIL!!
by Student Guy on Thu May 15, 2008 at 08:03:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Your wrong (2.00 / 1)

This strategy hasn't worked for the last two cycles.


by Reaper0Bot0 on Thu May 15, 2008 at 08:35:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

West Virginia is a really big state??? (none / 0)


by Angry White Democrat on Thu May 15, 2008 at 09:43:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: (none / 0)

I don't necessarily disagree.  Polling in all three states is promising.


United we stand, divided we fall.
by mefeck on Thu May 15, 2008 at 07:49:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: (none / 0)

If Obama gets all the Kerry states, he only needs Iowa, New Mexico and Nevada to tie (269-269).  That assumes he gets New Hampshire, which I think Obama easily will, despite McCain's strength there the state is just getting too blue for us to lose.  If Obama gets Colorado he can lose both Nevada and New Hampshire and still tie the electoral vote (I assume if he's strong enough to win Colorado he is also easily taking New Mexico).

Yeah, it's too close for comfort, but that's Obama's backup plan should Ohio and Florida get out of reach.  Obama may very well lose Florida by a significant amount, but Ohio has also shifted pretty strongly towards us and he polls within the margin of error with McCain.

Obviously a strong play in Virginia would help too, should the Colorado plan fail winning Virginia would put Obama over the top without New Hampshire or Nevada (still needs New Mexico and Iowa though).


by Skaje on Thu May 15, 2008 at 07:54:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: (none / 0)

And there is another 269 to 269 combination of states.  BO could lose NH (that is possible) and NM (also possible) but also win CO and this also results in a 269 tie.  If that was to happen i think a great many Republicans heads will explode.

david


by giusd on Thu May 15, 2008 at 07:58:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Also Nebraska splits its EV's (none / 0)

and in the primary in the primary more D's voted in CD-2 than republicans.  If a democrat could pick that up it would break the tie and win 270-268.


Student Guy=JoeMentum. No really Student Guy=JoeMentum, after all JoeMentum was an embarrassment so is Student Guy. This sig is FAIL!!
by Student Guy on Thu May 15, 2008 at 08:01:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: (none / 0)

Of course we win any tie in the House, though I would hope it doesn't come to that, kind of a last resort option.

I like this, talking about numbers and strategy again.  Don't know how much more primary war I can take.


by Skaje on Thu May 15, 2008 at 08:01:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Hey david (2.00 / 1)

for your rationality I am giving you mojo.

I agree with you that he needs to lock down NM and CO, however I think that NV could replace NH, or the CD around Omaha could.


Student Guy=JoeMentum. No really Student Guy=JoeMentum, after all JoeMentum was an embarrassment so is Student Guy. This sig is FAIL!!
by Student Guy on Thu May 15, 2008 at 07:57:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hey david (2.00 / 1)

ty


by giusd on Thu May 15, 2008 at 08:36:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: (2.00 / 1)

Good thing you're not running his campaign.  If he can't win two of the three big swings - he's toast.  Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania.  If the primaries are an indicator, he's burnt toast.  


by Tolstoy on Thu May 15, 2008 at 08:28:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: (2.00 / 1)

amazingly enough, the primaries are not indicators of the general election.  But keep trying to predict the future.


by Xris on Thu May 15, 2008 at 08:32:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: (2.00 / 1)

I'm not trying to predict anything but I stand by my statement, based on the electoral map, that the states I mentioned are must wins for Democrats.  Just because there's a new face on the scene doesn't mean we've become a new America .  


by Tolstoy on Thu May 15, 2008 at 08:45:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: (2.00 / 1)

I am not suggesting we are a new America.  I am just saying primary victories do not indicate general election victories.  This whole primary process may have went a little too long, but overall I think it has been great for our party.  Tons of new voters, enthusiasm through the roof, and detailed voter lists are going to allow Obama to do quite well.  I cannot predict the future and neither can you, but I do think he has a great chance of winning.  


by Xris on Thu May 15, 2008 at 08:48:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: (none / 0)

Actually, the real issue is what it has been for some time: Ohio. Add to that: Keep Pennsylvania; and, try to get Florida.  The Western strategy against a Western Republican popular with Latinos is very, very risky to put it nicely.


by christinep on Thu May 15, 2008 at 09:01:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Electoral College Favors Clinton: (none / 0)

You would be better off getting into the GE mode.


by Spanky on Thu May 15, 2008 at 07:39:33 PM EST

Only 19 more days of this. n/t (2.00 / 1)


John McCain supports privatizing Social Security.
by Travis Stark on Thu May 15, 2008 at 07:48:59 PM EST

Obama is really screwed (2.00 / 2)

Your diary doesn't go far enough in showing how bad this is going to be for Obama in November. Take the states he's won.
As your list shows, a bunch of them are deep red. So that leaves:

Colorado                                  
Hawaii                    
Minnesota                
Wisconsin                
Missouri                
Iowa                      
North Carolina          
Virginia                  
Illinois
Maryland
Delaware
Connecticut
Maine
Vermont
Washington
Oregon

But wait. We all know Obama can't win white people, and a lot of these states are really white. So that leaves:

Hawaii                    
Missouri                
North Carolina          
Virginia                  
Illinois
Maryland
Delaware
Connecticut
Washington

Not so fast. Most people don't know enough about Rev. Wright, and certainly wont vote for him when Obama puts him on the ticket. You have to take off states that were close in 2004.

Illinois
Maryland
Delaware
Connecticut

And Obama can't win states with double letters. Big problem with those.

Maryland
Delaware

But McCain's going to have a lot of appeal in the Northeast, so count those two out.

Look, Obama doesn't win anywhere. He already lost.

Thank God Obama can't win the nomination. He may have more pledged delegates, but all his superdelegates were just kidding when they endorsed him. So when they all flip and Hillary becomes the nominee, we can all celebrate.

And then she'll go on to win in November, because look at the primaries she won: Texas!!! Kentucky!! West Virginia!!

Explain to me how she could lose the general election if she's already won these states!


democracy!
by BlueGAinDC on Thu May 15, 2008 at 07:49:49 PM EST

Re: Obama is really screwed (none / 0)

You forgot DC.  I'm pretty sure he can beat McCain there even on his worst day.  At least that's something....


by lilnev on Fri May 16, 2008 at 12:47:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Electoral College Favors Clinton: Obama Awaits (2.00 / 2)

Why does any of this matter? Since neither candidate will have enough delegates to clinch it that way the SDs will decide. And which way are they going? Right - to Obama. It's over. This kind of diary is nothing more than amusing.


by Becky G on Thu May 15, 2008 at 07:50:14 PM EST

Re: Electoral College Favors Clinton: Obama Awaits (2.00 / 3)

We will find out how amusing it really is after May 31 and then June 1st when Clinton overtakes the national popular vote. 15 of the 30 states that Obama has or will win are going to McCain, that is a very troubling number for Obama.

Obama ,the so called "presumptive nominee" who can't put Hillary away, who is losing states even after being called the winner by the media, who can't win over white working class voters, who will lose the popular vote, who is only leading by a slim margin in delegates. Please spare us all your humorless anecdotes.


Steven Shaman Publisher Skywatch-Media News
by steve468 on Thu May 15, 2008 at 07:59:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Electoral College Favors Clinton: Obama Awaits (2.00 / 1)

Only if you give him a zero in MI (and only MAYBE) but the supers aren't rubes so they know the rules even if you don't.


John McCain on social security.
by heresjohnny on Thu May 15, 2008 at 08:03:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Electoral College Favors Clinton: Obama Awaits (