Obama's worst nightmare just happened.

The one single thing most likely to lose Obama the election has just occurred ...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/con tent/article/2008/05/12/AR2008051202554. html?referrer=digg

One of Hillary's PLEDGED DELEGATES defected to Obama.

How is this bad for Obama you say?

It opens up every PLEDGED DELEGATE to insider politics.

If that occurs Obama may face a situation where its insider politics and the party chooses who the party wants.

Hillary Clinton has the majority of the Democratic party votes.

This cycle is stranger and stranger and stranger...


Poll
Does Hillary have more inroads to get his pledged delegates or will he win this round?
Obama will get more crossover pledged delegates
Hillary will get more crossover pledged delegates

Votes: 78
Results : Vote Link : Polls

Display:


Re: Obama's worst nightmare just happened. (2.00 / 3)

You better reread, quick!!! lol


by standd on Tue May 13, 2008 at 04:28:06 AM EST

So funny! (none / 0)

Hillary's pledged delegates are starting to flee the sinking ship, and that's supposed to be a good thing for Hillary?

What it really means is that Hillary doesn't have anyone working for her as competent as Jeffrey Berman.

Obama's pledged delegates are going to be a whole lot less likely to flip than Hillary's, and it's largely Berman's doing.


Ignorance is weakness. Get strong.
by tbetz on Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:10:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: So funny! (none / 0)

Yes definitely an "unsung hero" :)

And a total egg-head!! How will Obama ever win?!? ;)


by standd on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:20:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's worst nightmare just happened. (2.00 / 4)

OK, yeah, you need to back up a bit and take a breather. I don't know if you think pledged delegates are as wishy-washy as superdelegates or something, but here's the thing...when they're selected, they get vetted pretty damn thoroughly. Why? So that the campaigns can be as sure as possible that they don't defect as long as the candidate is still in the race.

Yes, pledged delegates aren't 100% bound to a candidate and can change, but at best, you're only going to be looking at a small trickle of them. If you're thinking that this will open a floodgate, you're deluding yourself.


by Jaffee on Tue May 13, 2008 at 04:29:34 AM EST

Re: Obama's worst nightmare just happened. (2.00 / 2)

Agreed. Thus the ceremonial releasing of the "pledged" delegates by candidates who have won delegates but have dropped out of the race. I would be surprised if any more pledged delegates do this as well. Someone just got overexcited, I guess.
John McCain is a liar. Erratic, poor judgment. http://garypritchard08.com/
by Jeter on Tue May 13, 2008 at 04:34:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's worst nightmare just happened. (none / 0)

It is within the rights of a pledged delegate to vote for whomever they chose to vote for. Once again, in August. It's pretty obvious that delegates and superdelegates are not bound by popular vote, right? Let's move on and just let people vote. There are many races where statewide rules are not impacted by the wild and wacky DNC Presidential delegate rules.
John McCain is a liar. Erratic, poor judgment. http://garypritchard08.com/
by Jeter on Tue May 13, 2008 at 04:31:55 AM EST

Actually, I'm not sure. (2.00 / 5)

In Texas, we have to sign a loyalty oath to our candidate to be a national delegate.  I would imagine it's the same in every state.  I'm not sure if it's illegal for him to do this, but he would be violating an oath.  It's quite the moral conundrum he's put himself in.  As an Obama supporter and national delegate candidate, it's not the kind of support I welcome.


by The Distillery on Tue May 13, 2008 at 06:24:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

nope, not the same in every state... (2.00 / 1)

the rules for each state are different.  in some states, signing a "loyalty oath" would be considered offensive...


"This is the time for resolve and steady leadership" -- Barack Obama
by bored now on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:05:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Actually, I'm not sure. (none / 0)

Like violating an oath not to participate in a primary?


"More War Years! More War Years!" ~John McCain
by Tommy Flanagan on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:24:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's worst nightmare just happened. (2.00 / 5)

If you haven't noticed by now, all the superdelegate switchers have been from Clinton to Obama, going to the side of the leading candidate.  If Clinton thinks she can persuade pledged delegates to support her after Obama has hit 2025 she is welcome to try.  Don't think she will be very successful.

If any of Obama's pledged delegates were thinking about endorsing Clinton, I get the feeling they would have done so already.

The vast majority of pledged delegates are partisans reviewed heavily by the candidates.  One out of 3000 has chosen to change his mind.  Don't hold your breath waiting for a second.


by Skaje on Tue May 13, 2008 at 04:33:54 AM EST

and hillary needed to win 70% of those... (2.00 / 1)

superdelegates uncommitted before indiana.

one correction though: the vast majority of barack's pledged delegates are partisans, but hillary has relied heavily on elected officials to carry her campaign.  the problem with elected officials is that they are prone to pressure from their constituents (especially those up for re-election soon) and supporting hillary is a tough row to how in some communities.  but since i know that elected officials were pressured to support hillary in the first place (from her high-powered team of "converters"), who can complain about the people pressuring them back?  this is not the only example of a former obama supporter being placed on the ballot (as a pledged delegate) for hillary.

finally, let's not forget that -- when hillary could have more realistically won the nomination -- her campaign leaked a "plan" to go after pledged delegates.  it was met with the typical obama rapid response and framed in the worst possible light for the clinton campaign.  it doesn't hurt that you have the black churches actually aggrieved at every possible slight and ready to mobilize their congregants if needed.  but that was a lifetime ago in politics, and the clinton campaign couldn't pull that off even if they had bill knock on every single obama pledged delegate's door.  it's not just a matter of loyalty that holds the obama delegation together, it's also success.  why leave a winning team for a losing one?  not bloody likely...


"This is the time for resolve and steady leadership" -- Barack Obama
by bored now on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:28:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: and hillary needed to win 70% of those... (none / 0)

hillary has relied heavily on elected officials to carry her campaign

Do you all just make stuff up out of whole cloth?

Here is a picture of their support..

Goveners    +3 Obama
Senators    +5 Obama
House Rep   +4 Obama

Party Leaders +5 Clinton
DNC Members   +14 Clinton

Clinton has always led in partisans, always.  People who were elected support Obama in every group, only party insiders and old leaders favor Clinton.  


"The best way to show that a stick is crooked is not by arguing about it or spending time denouncing it, but to lay a straight stick alongside it" -DL Moody
by nextgen on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:05:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

i didn't mean to imply that they were successful.. (none / 0)

i was merely explaining how this could happen.

i take as my source for my comments in this regard both hillary and terry mcauliffe.  i have no reason to believe that they were falsifying their tactical approach before a group of major contributors but if you think they were, that's fine...


"This is the time for resolve and steady leadership" -- Barack Obama
by bored now on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:19:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Fair response (none / 0)

I appoligize for my tone, your post didn't deserve attack.  

I guess my point was whatever the Clinton camp says, the DNC (party insiders) were supporting her 2/1 early on as many were Clinton loyalist.  This is not a problem or unfair as that's politics but I thought it worth mentioning that people who are elected support him more.

Again, I appolgize for my original tone.  


"The best way to show that a stick is crooked is not by arguing about it or spending time denouncing it, but to lay a straight stick alongside it" -DL Moody
by nextgen on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:25:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

no worries... (none / 0)

i'm the same way!


"This is the time for resolve and steady leadership" -- Barack Obama
by bored now on Tue May 13, 2008 at 10:09:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: and hillary needed to win 70% of those... (none / 0)

She was leading in all catergories before Feb 5.   Please know your history.


http://www.imvotingrepublican.com/ McCain Sucks!
by yitbos96bb on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:35:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Superb (1.00 / 1)

If pledged delegates start becoming poachable then the only solid metric remaining will be popular vote, which will be in Hillary's pocket after May 20th.  

Maybe some Washington, Minnesota, and Colorado Democratic delegates elected by those archaic and fraud-prone caucuses will show a conscience here.  

Given that they reference the governor or Senator from Maryland can "release" Clinton's delegates, perhaps Rendell and Strickland can do the same from Clinton in Pennsylvania and Ohio.  Why not New York as well?


Lifelong Democrat, civil rights advocate, flirted with McCain for a bit but it just wasn't meant to be.
by BPK80 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 04:34:44 AM EST

Re: Superb (2.00 / 6)

Let's see some proof that the Minnesota caucuses are "fraud-prone".

I've participated in them before, and from my experience they have been clean, well-run, and democratic.

Proof please.


by emptythreatsfarm on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:30:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Superb (none / 0)

Well, Clinton didn't win. That means there was fraud.


unapologetic Obama supporter
by dantes on Tue May 13, 2008 at 10:28:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Yeah I may be a young buck (none / 0)

but back in 2004 (my first caucus) they were very clean we voted on paper (a secret ballot).  There wasn't any possibility of fraud as a Kerry supporter and an Edwards supporter both watched the counting of the ballots I was disappointed that Edwards didn't get more of the vote (he got around 35%) (Kucinich got over 15% but Morris is a college town).

In 2008 it was similar only more people attended.


Student Guy=JoeMentum. No really Student Guy=JoeMentum, after all JoeMentum was an embarrassment so is Student Guy. This sig is FAIL!!
by Student Guy on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:05:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Oh and Obama won by a 80-20 margin (none / 0)

(yea for the U of M).


Student Guy=JoeMentum. No really Student Guy=JoeMentum, after all JoeMentum was an embarrassment so is Student Guy. This sig is FAIL!!
by Student Guy on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:06:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Superb (none / 0)

Acknowledging something is "prone to fraud" is not the same as saying "fraud occurred."


Lifelong Democrat, civil rights advocate, flirted with McCain for a bit but it just wasn't meant to be.
by BPK80 on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:17:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

If you are implying (2.00 / 7)

that my home state (the beautiful MN) has fraudulent elections I have a lake (one of over 10,000) that I want to throw you into. Also you are denigrating a fine electoral tradition with your comment as MN not only is among the best in the nation in voter turnout it is the longest running blue state, accusing us of fraud is like saying the Twins are a high payroll team, it just doesn't occur here.


Student Guy=JoeMentum. No really Student Guy=JoeMentum, after all JoeMentum was an embarrassment so is Student Guy. This sig is FAIL!!
by Student Guy on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:06:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: If you are implying (2.00 / 1)

And the Twins, by the way, are in first place right now.  Even with Pohlad selling off the best pitcher in a generation...grumble...grumble...grumble ....

What you need to realize, Student Guy, is that any election in which A Certain Candidate didn't win is immediately suspect.  Those Lake Wobegonians obviously stuffed the ballot box, because it's a well-established trope fact that rural white voters actually favor A Certain Candidate.

Bleeds DFL blue,

Prog


by Progressive Witness on Tue May 13, 2008 at 09:50:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Hey but that guy they got for him (none / 0)

Gomez is sure entertaining to watch, not as fun as a 13 strikeout win by Santana but give him a few years and we'll see how good he is.


Student Guy=JoeMentum. No really Student Guy=JoeMentum, after all JoeMentum was an embarrassment so is Student Guy. This sig is FAIL!!
by Student Guy on Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:57:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: If you are implying (none / 0)

Again, caucuses are prone to fraud.  As I said above, that is not the same as saying "fraud occurred."

I hear a lot of very staunch Minnesota supremacists on this site.  Your state is very nice and everything but the superiority (masked inferiority?) complex needs to go.

And I'm politely ignoring your death threat.


Lifelong Democrat, civil rights advocate, flirted with McCain for a bit but it just wasn't meant to be.
by BPK80 on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:20:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Superb (2.00 / 3)

Are you excluding FOUR states from your "only solid metric" and giving Obama zero votes from MI? Because that makes it much less solid...
by Jay R on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:41:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Superb (2.00 / 1)

did you know the Minnesota caucus votes like a primary, with secret ballots and everything?

did you know Obama also won the Washington primary?


John McCain hates terrorists, except the ones that hate women. Those are just swell.
by terra on Tue May 13, 2008 at 09:13:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Superb (2.00 / 1)

(a) Clinton will not win the popular vote, unless you define it in some idiotically partisan way.

(b) If delegates "start becoming poachable" the metric will be... delegates. Like it was before and has always been.

(c) None of this is going to happen in numbers that matter. The candidates get to vet their delegates. It's a non-issue.


John McCain
by Mandoliniment on Tue May 13, 2008 at 10:11:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's worst nightmare just happened. (2.00 / 1)

Johnson wants to jump on the bandwagon and that's bad news for Obama?  Whatever.


by IncognitoErgoSum on Tue May 13, 2008 at 04:37:35 AM EST

Re: Obama's worst nightmare just happened. (none / 0)

I think this is bad news for Obama indeed.  It shows what a bunch of jokers some of the delegates or super delegates are and the system is a mess.  The only reliable thing at the end will be the popular vote.


by observer11 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 04:46:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's worst nightmare just happened. (none / 0)

So if Obama wins the PV you think Clinton should concede?


by IncognitoErgoSum on Tue May 13, 2008 at 04:48:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's worst nightmare just happened. (none / 0)

IMHO, yes. But there should be a primary vote in every caucus state, so it would be completely fair :)


by observer11 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 04:52:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's worst nightmare just happened. (2.00 / 1)

Fair enough if you're talking about future contests.  But how do you reconcile your belief in pure democracy with the Clinton campaign's willingness to accept a victory on the basis of superdelegates, poached delegates, and so on?

Let's go back to the beginning of the primary season (when we were all friends).  Honestly, I was shocked by the ease with which Clinton started banking on party rules which were out and out undemocratic.

Makes it difficult for me to take any argument about the popular vote seriously.  You might think this matters.  Clinton is on record, though, saying that if enough superdelegates back her it's not important if this trumps the pledged delegate count, popular vote, or any other metric.

Not calling you a hypocrite.  Just saying I wish she had the same commitment to popular democracy you do (because, erm, she doesn't--that's not a slur or unfair attack, she's been open about this all along).


by IncognitoErgoSum on Tue May 13, 2008 at 04:58:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's worst nightmare just happened. (1.00 / 1)

You tried to not count Florida.

Believe me on that alone we are not friends

If the party pulls that BS again in my lifetime I will leave it permanently.


by DTaylor on Tue May 13, 2008 at 05:01:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Get lost! (1.75 / 4)

PLEASE.  You are an ignorant waste of all of our time.


by bigdcdem on Tue May 13, 2008 at 05:07:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's worst nightmare just happened. (none / 0)

How is it I get hide all the time, but comments like the one from DTaylor are ok? What is the difference? When I posted the article someone hide me, but Dtaylor post what would be similar to my comment and everything is ok. Am I missing something here?


by Hillarywillwin on Tue May 13, 2008 at 05:12:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's worst nightmare just happened. (none / 0)

I argue what I believe and I do it honestly.

You argue what you do not believe and do it dishonestly.

Do you not see a difference?

I really do have a MASSIVE problem with any state EVER being not counted.  Thats not an act.  I may not threaten to leave the party when it doesn't change the result but its evil.

The DK deceit about what they stand for with all the false hope diaries with titles saying YES YES and then either snark or a Diary that says NO NO in it hurts our party.

Our party built on honesty, is diminished when people like you build a wall of deceit so that what is said cannot be taken as honest anymore.

Honesty good
Dishonesty bad.

Pretty simple really.


by DTaylor on Tue May 13, 2008 at 05:23:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

You? Honest? (2.00 / 6)

Please.

Anytime I see you now Im going to keep reminding people about your 'honest' argument about Powell being 'assasination insurance' for Obama.  Great integrity you have.

Please disappear.  Your presence is not welcome.

Scum.


by pattonbt on Tue May 13, 2008 at 05:30:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You? Honest? (none / 0)

Do you not see how all other things being equal what Obama would gain from a black VP?

That was actually real practical advice meant in the spirit of brotherhood.

But no good deed goes unpunished I suppose.


by DTaylor on Tue May 13, 2008 at 05:57:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

You suggest that he needs a black VP (2.00 / 3)

to ward against assaination.  You think that's a good deed.  Do you not see that to me at least and others as demonstrated by their comments that you only see Obama as a black man?  Saying that Obama as a black man as a VP is crosses the line and demonstrates that you either have no ethics or serious issues with race.


John McCain wants you to be poor!
by nklein on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:36:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's worst nightmare just happened. (2.00 / 3)

It's simple - most Obama supporters have had their mojo abilities taken away.


by interestedbystander on Tue May 13, 2008 at 05:26:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

is this true??? (2.00 / 1)


"This is the time for resolve and steady leadership" -- Barack Obama
by bored now on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:29:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

It is for me. (2.00 / 1)

n/t


Nos causidicus Obama , ergo nos non suadeo
by rb608 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:01:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Me too. (none / 0)

In truth, I suspect it's because I taunted Jerome here.  I note now that he never deigned to respond to Markos' comment.

One way to make sure that pro-Hillary diaries dominate the rec list is to make sure that only pro-Hillary users can rec diaries.

Works good, too.


Ignorance is weakness. Get strong.
by tbetz on Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:18:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's worst nightmare just happened. (2.00 / 3)

Florida and Michigan were not the first states ever to hold contests that were declared to have violated DNC rules and were therefore disallowed. Did the previous ones bother you as much?


by letterc on Tue May 13, 2008 at 05:19:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's worst nightmare just happened. (none / 0)

Honestly its the first time I have heard about it and I will be leaving the party the second time.


by DTaylor on Tue May 13, 2008 at 05:24:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's worst nightmare just happened. (2.00 / 2)

If it bugs you that much, fair enough. But it has happened multiple times before. It has never ended in as much of a mess before (although, in the end, I think that MI and FL will be seated with something close to the delegate count with half votes), but it isn't that rare. Party discipline is supposed to count for something.


by letterc on Tue May 13, 2008 at 05:30:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's worst nightmare just happened. (none / 0)

Ask me about it when the election is over.


by DTaylor on Tue May 13, 2008 at 05:59:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's worst nightmare just happened. (2.00 / 1)

a 50% reduction has happended reguarly. the 100% reduction is unique as far as I know, but if you know any further examples I'd by glad to here it.

And party discipline should count for something, but primaries should as well. I can understand why they wanted to make sure no bandwagon effect developed, but after it was clear that no momentum was gained from these states they should have migated the unpresidented level of the sanctions.

And it's not as these heavy sanction serve any purpose now. More then any saction could enforce the current election with its proportionate delegate rule and close nomination fight has made sure that such frontloading won't happen again.

The motive to break the rules has been removed. States don't have to worry anymore about their relevance like they had to after 2004.

Enforcing rules to their extremes for obsolete reasons, resulting in the disenfranciche of millions of voters is morally wrong and counter everything a democracy should stand for.

And no, I don't support Clinton, I actually want Obama to win while FL and MI get counted like they should.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Ernst on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:32:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

i agree with everything you said... (none / 0)


"This is the time for resolve and steady leadership" -- Barack Obama
by bored now on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:37:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's worst nightmare just happened. (none / 0)

It is hard to search for, but I found a mydd diary from a while back that discusses this, and a few bits and pieces elsewhere.

1996 and 2000, Delaware held its primary in violation of Rule 10.A, and the Rules committee rejected Delaware's plan to seat delegates based on that primary. The primary was held, but Delaware held a later caucus to select delegates.

In 2004, DC did the same, their plan was rejected. They held the invalid primary, and then held a caucus later that was valid.

MI and FL are the first states that have proven to have Democratic parties that couldn't figure out how to hold a caucus after their primary was rejected as the method of selecting delegates. I actually think this has more to do with the Clinton campaign pushing hard for seating the primary delegates and claiming that caucuses are undemocratic than with the incompetence of the MI and FL Democratic parties. Of course, the other problem is that 1996, 2000, and 2004 were not extremely close fought battles, so the specific rules for the caucuses in Delaware and DC weren't important by the time they were held.

I expect FL and MI will be seated, either with half votes (I think FL favors this) or with an adjusted delegate distribution (which MI seems to favor). I have no problem with that either, given that they couldn't manage to hold caucuses, although it does severely undercut the deterrent effect for 2016 (although Obama's VP will probably be the shoo-in for the Dem nomination that year- we can hope so, anyway). :)


by letterc on Tue May 13, 2008 at 10:16:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's worst nightmare just happened. (none / 0)

The deterrent effect is simply not needed because the situation has changed. The sole reason for the big run forward was the fact that the last nomination was over after 2 states.

With a contest that is devoid of momentum and nearly every state now not only actually counting but being more important in the latter stages of the calander there simply is no motivation like there used to break the rules.

To hold to these extreme penalties in order to deter for the next time is closing the stable door after the horse has bolted, there is nothing to deter people from anymore.

And the fact on the grounds is that every actor in this s to blame. The Clinton campaign certainly isn't blameless, the state parties aren't blameless, But the Obama campaign has also done everything in his power to sabotage a solution just like clinton. And the DNC has been completely absent while they should have been the impartial brokers that worked towards a solution from the start.

I'm pretty disgusted with the entire party's behavior over this. Both campaign used this at various times to as a proxy nomination fight and the state and national parties were totally useless. And all the while the voters paid the price.

Blerg.

That said the rest of the nomination was actually spectacular (well... outside the fact that my choice failed miserably..)


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Ernst on Wed May 14, 2008 at 03:26:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Here's to hoping that it happens again (2.00 / 1)


by bigdcdem on Tue May 13, 2008 at 05:57:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

right, but... (2.00 / 3)

that only tells us that you never cared enough to know before.  i find it interesting that anyone would threaten to leave the party because it expects states and state parties to play by the rules, rules that are known years in advance.  in this case, especially, where two states tried to play chicken with the dnc, you support the idiot drivers who crossed into another's lane to see who blinked first.  but if you feel the need to leave the party because you believe that states have the right to play chicken with the democratic party, by all means...


"This is the time for resolve and steady leadership" -- Barack Obama
by bored now on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:33:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's worst nightmare just happened. (none / 0)

I am talking about future contest. And to be honest, this whole primary has made democracy seem like a joke.  It also makes me feel like our society has gone back 50 years.  Call me a hypocrite if you like. But I challenge you to find any basis for your accusation.  


by observer11 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 05:07:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Seems to me that the only people who feel... (none / 0)

... as you do are those who are (or claim to have been) the most ignorant about how the political process works.

Education can be painful, but it's cowardly and childish to abandon politics just because it doesn't work the way you wish it would.  You should stay and fight to change what you don't like.

That's the only way our process ever evolved beyond the smoke-filled rooms of the early twentieth century.

It's not perfect, but it's improving.  If you really care about the problems you see, you should stick around and work to fix them.


Ignorance is weakness. Get strong.
by tbetz on Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:23:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Seems to me that the only people who feel... (none / 0)

How can I give up when there are rude a** like you to inspire me to fight on?! :)


by observer11 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 04:25:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

isn't saul alinsky cool??? (none / 0)

Agitate + Aggravate + Educate + Organize


"This is the time for resolve and steady leadership" -- Barack Obama
by bored now on Tue May 13, 2008 at 04:33:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Glad to hear it! (none / 0)

Saul Alinsky lives!


Ignorance is weakness. Get strong.
by tbetz on Tue May 13, 2008 at 05:19:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's worst nightmare just happened. (none / 0)

Instead of completely fair, how about knowable.  Popular vote cannot, I repeat, CANNOT be determined because several caucus states do not provide the information, correct?  


by niksder on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:36:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's worst nightmare just happened. (2.00 / 1)

Because one out of about 3000 didn't do what he was elected to do? Yeah, integrity of the entire system compromised! Fall back! FALL BACK!


by Jaffee on Tue May 13, 2008 at 04:49:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's worst nightmare just happened. (2.00 / 1)

"It shows what a bunch of jokers some of the delegates or super delegates are and the system is a mess.  The only reliable thing at the end will be the popular vote."

I don't get it. The delegates and SDs are a joke? So who then decides that the PV is the end all be all??

Why dont we just stick to the rules wait until the end of May and see where we are ok?


by standd on Tue May 13, 2008 at 05:07:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

the only thing we know is that barack won... (2.00 / 1)

and people are jumping on board the barack train...


"This is the time for resolve and steady leadership" -- Barack Obama
by bored now on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:28:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's worst nightmare just happened. (2.00 / 1)

This was the plot of a "Boston Legal" episode a few weeks ago: a pledged delegate switched from Hillary to Obama, and lawsuits ensued. And they were clear that the person with the most to gain from delegate flipping was Hillary, since there's no other way for her to get enough delegates to win the nomination. Life imitates art.

But that said, I still think it's pretty silly to call a delegate doing what the rules have always allowed him to do a "worst nightmare," since I've yet to see any reason to think the Obama team isn't better prepared to win over shifting delegates, since they've generally been much more on-the-ball when it comes to the rules of this nominations process.

by Jay R on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:46:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's worst nightmare just happened. (none / 0)

HAHA, this guy switched sides so fast for so many times; his head must be spinning.  But why am I not surprised?


by observer11 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 04:43:54 AM EST

Re: Obama's worst nightmare just happened. (2.00 / 5)

Also, we all know that technically it is the electoral delegates that choose our president, not the states themselves, and that in many states there are no requirements that the electors actually vote with their states.  So theoretically a president could lose the electoral vote in November, but still win due to electoral delegates switching (in states that allow it, some states actually have laws preventing this).

However.

This is EXCEEDINGLY RARE.

You can read up on these "faithless electors" here.  In most cases they are protest votes after the outcome is already known.  Some of them are simply mistakes.  None of them have actually changed an election though.

This is probably the first and last pledged delegate we see switch of this year.


by Skaje on Tue May 13, 2008 at 05:05:33 AM EST

Re: Obama's worst nightmare just happened. (none / 0)

we should hope so. The process is already fauled up enough. Mass migration of PD's would make it even more of a mess.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Ernst on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:36:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Just another ignorant diary from (2.00 / 2)

one of mydd's worst posters.


by bigdcdem on Tue May 13, 2008 at 05:08:09 AM EST

Re: Just another ignorant diary from (none / 0)

Eh, there's worse trolls here, but that says something about mydd...

That said, the diarist has "won" at hidden comments from time to time.


by Skaje on Tue May 13, 2008 at 05:11:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Just another ignorant diary from (none / 0)

I do not get what the difference is anymore.


by Hillarywillwin on Tue May 13, 2008 at 05:14:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

No (none / 0)

This guy/gal is the worst.

He made a crack recently that Colin Powell would be good 'assasination insurance' for Obama.

This guy (DTaylor) is scum.


by pattonbt on Tue May 13, 2008 at 05:32:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's worst nightmare just happened. (none / 0)

What does that make you? Sir?


by observer11 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 05:10:42 AM EST

Re: Obama's worst nightmare just happened. (none / 0)

"I'm your worst nightmare... an 8 year old with a badge."

Jokes aside, I don't see how this ranks among Obama's worst nightmare scenarios.  This simply isn't going to change things one way or the other unless a large number of pledged delegates to follow suit, and that's simply not going to happen.  Even if a few rogue pledged delegates change their votes, that doesn't mean we throw out that metric to decide the winner when it is the one we've been using all along.  This primary is about delegates, and just about everyone on both sides of our aisle acknowledges this fact.


And so, may evil beware and may good dress warmly and eat lots of fresh vegetables.
by thatpurplestuff on Tue May 13, 2008 at 05:18:34 AM EST

Re: Obama's worst nightmare just happened. (2.00 / 1)

I'm not clear from that article how Clinton got saddled with this delegate as one of her pledged delegates. Given that he was a Obama supporter until shortly before the primary, I wouldn't have wanted him as one of my pledged delegates if I were Clinton.


by letterc on Tue May 13, 2008 at 05:22:52 AM EST

i'd surmize that he switched under pressure... (none / 0)

when the clinton campaign needed or wanted someone of his specific "dimensions" (male, elected official in that area, an endorser, etc) -- iow, they wanted a press release.  it may have just been a switcher or a recognizable name on their delegate list...


"This is the time for resolve and steady leadership" -- Barack Obama
by bored now on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:37:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

This is just pathetic (2.00 / 3)

One pledged delegate proves to be an unloyal twit and this is a nightmare?

It's getting so pathetic, it's sad here.


by reggie44pride on Tue May 13, 2008 at 05:33:49 AM EST

Re: This is just pathetic (2.00 / 1)

This confirms just that EVERYTHING is open.
We haven't decided anything, the primaries where mostly moot.

Because you see the pledged delegates are not pledged, the super delegates are not super and cant vote till august anyway so NOTHING is decided.

Actually i heard rumors that Mark Penn is working behind the scenes to start the primaries from the start because "some of the campaigns weren't totally  clear on the delegate math"


by standd on Tue May 13, 2008 at 05:39:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: This is just pathetic (2.00 / 2)

I cannot tell if you are being facetious or trying to make a point.


by reggie44pride on Tue May 13, 2008 at 05:43:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: This is just pathetic (2.00 / 1)

facetious is exactly the right word :)

yeah, for me this is a non-story like so many posted on this blog.


by standd on Tue May 13, 2008 at 05:54:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's worst nightmare just happened. (2.00 / 3)

How is it that you manage to misinterpret everything every time?


Government derives its power from those that it governs.
by lockewasright on Tue May 13, 2008 at 05:34:30 AM EST

Dont like the precedent (2.00 / 4)

While I love the irony of the situation (since Clinton was the one to point out this is fair game), I do not think it is right and I hope this guy gets smacked down hard and Obama rejetcs this joker and tells him to stick with his original pledge.

While I know Pledged Delegates can flip, I dont want them to.  I want them to represent the 'will of the people' as they pledged they would.  Otherwise its a mockery.

DKos had a diary on this as well and the majority of the people there agreed - they dont want this guy flipping, out of principle (not fear of some sort of flood the other way).

And also, this politican apparently is a tool and is just seeing which way the wind is blowing.


by pattonbt on Tue May 13, 2008 at 05:36:08 AM EST

Oh, and Jerome or Admin (2.00 / 5)

Please ban this tool.  How you can let a piece of garbage like this on this site is beyond me.

Overall, the quality of the people here are great and while many of us disagree we still keep things mostly above board, but this guy/gal DTaylor is scum.

Anybody who advocated 'assasination insurance' against one of our two candidates should be removed immediately.  Please do not let this great site go completely into the toilet.

Please ban him/her.


by pattonbt on Tue May 13, 2008 at 05:39:55 AM EST

Re: Obama's worst nightmare just happened. (2.00 / 5)

DTaylor,

Ever since you made those statements about Iraq and Iran causing 9/11 and how Obama was responsible for Saddam's tyranny, I fail to see how I, or anyone else for the matter, can take anything you say seriously.


_____________
changiness
by lizardbox on Tue May 13, 2008 at 05:48:35 AM EST

Re: Obama's worst nightmare just happened. (2.00 / 2)

I'm sorry. I'm just not comfortable with an active effort to get pledged delegates to switch; it kind of defeats the purpose of voting.

There are certain situations where it may be okay, in very extreme situations, but rest assured, neither Barack nor Hillary will ever hit one of those "extreme situations".

If you want to get into a debate on how the pledged delegate system is bullshitty, then I'm down for that, because I think it has quite a few errors in it that need to be corrected. Like how a win in Idaho can be more valuable than a win in Pennsylvania, for example.

But in terms of this, I think it's wrong for people to switch. It undermines alot of things that we hold valuable.


Hillary supporter for Barack Obama in 2008
by zcflint05 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 05:56:48 AM EST

Re: Obama's worst nightmare just happened. (2.00 / 3)

Jack B Johnson originally allowed his name to be listed as a supporter by the Obama campaign in December.

He was not chosen as a 'Clinton' delegate by voters at the ballot, he was selected in consultation with the Clinton campaign by the Maryland Democratic State Central Committee.

This diary is evidence of a stuff up by a campaign in selecting a delegate, in this case a stuff up by the Clinton campaign.

It is not evidence of something that will happen a lot in the future, let alone being Obama's worst nightmare.


by My Ob on Tue May 13, 2008 at 06:48:19 AM EST

Party insiders (2.00 / 1)

The party insiders will be choosing the candidate in June and it's no secret that Obama is their overwhelming favorite. Obama is ahead with the party insiders (the super delegates) as well as every other metric.

Great news for Clinton? Some of the stuff posted here is so delusional it would embarrass Baghdad Bob.


by hankg on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:14:49 AM EST

Re: Obama's worst nightmare just happened. (2.00 / 2)

Huh?  The Clinton campaign has been trying to move pledged delegates for weeks now.  Net result?  Obama +1.


by Same As It Ever Was on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:19:46 AM EST

Preposterous (2.00 / 2)

Forget all the childish back and forth above.  The diarist is making a foolish argument.

The delegate whose "switch" spells Sen. Obama's doom is identified in the first two paragraphs:

Prince George's County Executive Jack B. Johnson, a Democratic convention delegate pledged to support Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, said yesterday that he thinks Sen. Barack Obama has "in a real sense" won the Democratic nomination and that he now plans to support Obama at the August convention.

Johnson, who endorsed Clinton nine days before Maryland's February primary, said will urge Gov. Martin O'Malley and Sen. Barbara A. Mikulski, who co-chair Clinton's Maryland campaign,to bring all of her delegates to Obama's camp for the sake of party unity.

Rosalind S. Helderman, "Pr. George's Executive Switches To Obama", WP, May 13, 2008, p. B01

Now it is true that Johnson was briefly an Obama delegate before the MD primary, switched to Clinton, then only now back to Obama.

But it is a logical impossibility to conclude that this is worse news for Obama than for Clinton.

     1.    The most recent and likely durable shift given the race dynamics and stated reasons is a net positive for Obama.
     2.    Unlike before, Johnson is actively encouraging the state party leaders to consolidate behind Obama.
     3.    Johnson repeats the narrative most favorable at this point to Obama ('Obama has won the nomination').
     4.    If this is a signal it's OK to switch, it is a much stronger signal it's OK switching from Sen. Clinton to Obama.

There are delusional arguments and then there are those that are...what?...patently absurd.  Choose whatever you wish, so long as you do not choose 'persuasive'.

Or perhaps this diary does not even rise to the level of 'argument' as traditionally understood.


"We live entangled in webs of endless deceit, often self-deceit, but with a little honest effort, it is possible to extricate ourselves from them". -- NC
by Trond Jacobsen on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:33:33 AM EST

You have to be really desperate (2.00 / 2)

to see this as bad news for Obama.  In reality, nothing has changed in that pledged delegates have always been free to switch; but their absolute loyalty to their candidate is what makes them pledged delegates to start with.

That one Clinton supporter has abandoned that entrenched loyalty to support Obama is indicative of just how bad things are for Clinton; it's surely not a bad thing for Obama.  His delegates have always been free to switch; but that haven't.  But now Clinton's has.


Nos causidicus Obama , ergo nos non suadeo
by rb608 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:57:10 AM EST

Re: Obama's worst nightmare just happened. (none / 0)

The Democratic party is in turmoil; basically they created broker election. A party that talks about Democracy but doesn't really believe in it.


by soyousay on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:57:51 AM EST

Re: Obama's worst nightmare just happened. (none / 0)

Ya. I'm sure this is his worst nightmare.

There's always going to be a bozo or two in the bunch. Even in the electoral college there's been cases of people not voting the way their state did. I don't know why we allow the "official" rules to be so loose in the party and don't codify the actual rules by which the system works. I wouldn't expect any massive movement of pledged delegates either way. This is just a guy looking for his 15 minutes of fame.


John McCain supports privatizing Social Security.
by Travis Stark on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:03:26 AM EST

Re: Obama's worst nightmare just happened. (2.00 / 1)

I love this, a delegate drops his support for Hillary and signs on with Obama but somehow in the twisted Alice-in-Wonderland logic of MyDD it's "Great News For Hillary"?  I had to read the linked article twice and this diary three times to make sure that I'd read them right.  Amazing.


by Gene In PA on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:08:15 AM EST

Re: Obama's worst nightmare just happened. (2.00 / 3)

I read all the way through this diary, and I couldn't find any place where it reports that Obama just discovered that he had a final exam today for a class he hadn't been attending, and, by the way, he had no pants. What's up with that?


by Ray Radlein on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:10:37 AM EST

Re: Obama's worst nightmare just happened. (2.00 / 1)

i had to laugh very hard :) thank you, this can be a very depressing blog to read at times


by standd on Tue May 13, 2008 at 09:51:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's worst nightmare just happened. (none / 0)

I don't think this helps Clinton, disagree with your premise.

That said, I think this is garbage.  I am an Obama supporter, but I don't care for this at all.  That delegate was elected on the basis of a vote to represent Clinton.  He should represent her.  I don't find this democratic at all.


by labor nrrd on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:22:10 AM EST

Obama's worst nightmare (2.00 / 2)

is Hillary Clinton's George Wallace strategy in West Virginia.

Echoing Wallace, Clinton says, "Let's send them a message.", meaning he can't win he's black.


overthrow the government~participate
by missliberties on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:39:45 AM EST

Re: Obama's worst nightmare just happened. (2.00 / 2)

There are no tanks in Baghdad!! None at all!
by Wayward Son on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:46:00 AM EST

Re: Obama's worst nightmare just happened. (none / 0)

I hope after this debacle that we will go back to winner takes all primaries, no caucuses, and no uncounted votes no proportional delegates and most of all no freaking super delegates. Run primaries and the winner takes all the states delegates. A cap on spending would be helpful as well. The amount of money spent of the primary is obscene. The reform needs a reform
The DNC has made this and the party into

by coolofthenight on Tue May 13, 2008 at 10:03:25 AM EST

Re: Obama's worst nightmare just happened. (none / 0)

Another pointless, divicive diary.


The man who reads nothing at all is better educated than the man who reads nothing but newspapers. -- Thomas Jefferson
by pollbuster on Tue May 13, 2008 at 10:12:09 AM EST

Re: Obama's worst nightmare just happened. (none / 0)

It doesn't surprise that a few might switch from one candidate to another.  It's a mass defection (no matter which candidate it helps) that worries me, and I don't think that will happen.


No way. No how. No McCain.
by freedom78 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 10:43:25 AM EST

If a pledgie would have switched to Hillary (none / 0)

the outrage would be spectacular. But, since we are busy fixing the nomination for Obama, then it's OK.


by grlpatriot on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:03:12 PM EST

well... (none / 0)

i fear we may have gotten carried away here.  seems that the actual event was the "call" for delegates to be released with an expressed desire to vote for barack afterward.  i could be wrong, but i wouldn't take this pledge to the bank...


"This is the time for resolve and steady leadership" -- Barack Obama
by bored now on Tue May 13, 2008 at 04:34:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's worst nightmare just happened. (none / 0)

"If that occurs Obama may face a situation where its insider politics and the party chooses who the party wants.

Hillary Clinton has the majority of the Democratic party votes."

By definition, the Superdelegates are party insiders, and the majority of them are for Obama, with more every day.

So how does Hillary score on this metric?


"You might well think that. I couldn't possibly comment"
by xenontab on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:47:41 PM EST


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