Texas Continues To Trend Obama

by Todd Beeton, Fri Feb 29, 2008 at 01:08:50 PM EST

Bumped - Todd

A new Reuters/Zogby poll out today out of Texas confirms what we've been seeing in most other polls: that Obama continues to surge in Texas unabated.

CandidateZogby  2/26-28Insider Advantage 2/27 (2/25)Rasmussen 2/27 (2/24)Public Strategies 2/24-25 (2/24-26)RCP  6-poll Ave.
Obama4843 (47)48 (45)45 (43)47.7
Clinton4247 (46)44 (46)46 (46)45.3

The one exception is the Insider Advantage poll, which shows Clinton actually taking the lead over Obama. Unfortunately, IA hasn't proven terribly reliable (for what it's worth, Survey USA's pollster report card has it low on the list, well below even Zogby.) A cursory glance at the internals of the IA and Zogby polls seems to indicate that this discrepancy hinges on IA projecting a larger Hispanic turnout (37% vs. 34%) and a smaller independent turnout (16% vs. 20%.) My guess is that Zogby actually slightly inflates Obama's support in the state (much as it did in California) as most polls that gauge early voting show Clinton and Obama tied but Zogby has Obama up by 10%. But still, the trend is unmistakable. We've seen turn-arounds happen in less time (as Obama says: "remember New Hampshire") but you have to wonder if Clinton couldn't stanch the bleeding with 2 back to back debates, how can she? At the same time, it's important to remember California, a large state with a large Hispanic population where polls showed Obama surging into a wide lead up until election day.

Update [2008-2-29 14:18:19 by Todd Beeton]:ARG concurs. From Political Wire:

In Texas, Sen. Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton 51% to 44%. Clinton leads among self-described Democrats 48% to 46% and Obama leads among self-described independents and Republicans 64% to 32%. Among men, it is Obama 60% and Clinton 32%. Among women, Clinton leads 53% to 44%. Clinton and Obama are tied at 49% each among early voters and Obama leads Clinton 51% to 43% among in-person voters.




Tags: 2008 presidential election, democratic nomination, texas primary (all tags)

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Turnout, Turnout, Turnout (none / 0)

This is definitely a horse race. I don't know what to say but that Clinton should aim for high turnout among white rank-and-file Democrats and Hispanics in the south counties and in the suburbs....

Ohio I think is hers, but not by much, certainly not by the 10% which she prevailed in CA.


I proudly support Barack Obama for President!
by Zeitgeist9000 on Fri Feb 29, 2008 at 11:35:13 AM EST

Re: Turnout, Turnout, Turnout (none / 0)

In Texas aren't white rank-and-file Dems generally more an Obama constituency?

I would assume (note assume! correct me if I'm wrong) that the white working classes of Texas are overwhelmingly Republican.


by MNPundit on Fri Feb 29, 2008 at 01:39:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Turnout, Turnout, Turnout (none / 0)

Sort of - Clinton leads among white Kerry voters, but Obama leads among white Bush voters, particularly among older men. There are a lot more white Bush voters than white Kerry voters.


by IVR Polls on Fri Feb 29, 2008 at 01:57:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Turnout, Turnout, Turnout (none / 0)

Clinton leads white Kerry voters? Maybe some of them. But a lot of white Kerry voters in Texas live in Austin and they are voting for Obama.  


by elrod on Fri Feb 29, 2008 at 07:19:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Turnout, Turnout, Turnout (none / 0)

Not necessarily.  In particular, one finds a good deal of Democratic support among white unionized refinery and chemical plant workers along the Gulf Coast, particularly in the Golden Triangle area.


by kenfair on Fri Feb 29, 2008 at 02:47:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Texas Continues To Trend Obama (none / 0)

march 4th will be a split. hillary wins RI and OH, obama wins VT and TX. obama will add to his delegate lead.
by supsupsup on Fri Feb 29, 2008 at 11:35:57 AM EST

Re: Texas Continues To Trend Obama (none / 0)

I see that the Clinton campaign is threatening a lawsuit to challenge the format of the Texas primary.  There's a long thread over at Kos about it.  What a nasty bunch of people she hired.  I imagine that now they are hoping to seat the delegates from Slobolvia...


by global yokel on Fri Feb 29, 2008 at 11:36:21 AM EST

Re: Texas Continues To Trend Obama (none / 0)

Every day the Clinton campaign looks more desperate and arrogant. Their inflated and false sense of entitlement to the nomination is very unbecoming.


by Oregonian on Fri Feb 29, 2008 at 11:52:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Texas Continues To Trend Obama (none / 0)

I could say the same thing about the Obama campaign!


I proudly support Barack Obama for President!
by Zeitgeist9000 on Fri Feb 29, 2008 at 11:54:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

But it would be wrong (2.00 / 0)

One MILLION individual donors wrong.


by ReillyDiefenbach on Fri Feb 29, 2008 at 12:53:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Texas Continues To Trend Obama (none / 0)

You could, and you have said worse. It doesn't change the fact that this is how the Hillary campaign (and many of her supporters) think. There was actually someone on here last week arguing that it was rude of Obama to even run because he was trying to take Hillary's "turn."

I would hope that whatever you think you wouldn't say something that absurd.... then again like I already said: you've said worse.


"And to my fellow Americans I say this... get off my lawn." John McCain, August 2008
by JDF on Fri Feb 29, 2008 at 01:27:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Texas Continues To Trend Obama (none / 0)

Wow, my own dedication in your signature!

I'm ecstatic. Thank you. You love me, you really love me!

The twists and the turns of this campaign are really unlike anything we have seen. I'm so glad we will be able to have many rhetorical battles after Tuesday, especially considering that Hillary will win Ohio, Texas and Rhode Island.


I proudly support Barack Obama for President!
by Zeitgeist9000 on Fri Feb 29, 2008 at 01:32:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Texas Continues To Trend Obama (none / 0)

anytime clinton supporters "predict" outcomes, it raises Obama's chances two-fold.
!
by alex100 on Fri Feb 29, 2008 at 01:35:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

One could say the same (none / 0)

of Zogby re: Clinton's chances.
by BrandingIron17 on Sat Mar 01, 2008 at 05:14:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: One could say the same (none / 0)

no takes Zogby seriously. They're the antithesis of a Clinton supporters who make predictions. But to be fair to Zogby, they're right more often then Clinton supporters are.
!
by alex100 on Sat Mar 01, 2008 at 10:09:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Texas Continues To Trend Obama (none / 0)

good comeback. wait, no. not really. ad hominem, ad hominem.
!
by alex100 on Fri Feb 29, 2008 at 01:33:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Texas Continues To Trend Obama (none / 0)

The power of Obama's ground game is amazing. Every single state that he visits quickly reverses any Clinton lead, and quickly. Cali would haev flipped too on Super Tues, if not for the early voting.

<snark> Hey, maybe the Obama campaign should sue the California Democratic Party since the early voting rules didn't favor him! </snark>


Two riders were approaching......the wind begins to howl!
by John in Chicago on Fri Feb 29, 2008 at 11:38:39 AM EST

Re: Texas Continues To Trend Obama (none / 0)

He needed more time.

If CA wasn't on the same day as 21 other states, I think he could have shifted it... but splitting his time and resources, there just wasn't enough time to get it done.

He's been lacking in neither in TX.


by zonk on Fri Feb 29, 2008 at 11:44:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Texas Continues To Trend Obama (none / 0)

One more week, and I think CA would have been Obama's.


- Sam Hussein Longhorn
by LonghornSam on Fri Feb 29, 2008 at 01:29:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Texas Continues To Trend Obama (2.00 / 1)

whatever! if these elections were in December Clinton would have won.


by bayareasg on Fri Feb 29, 2008 at 01:31:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Texas Continues To Trend Obama (2.00 / 0)

You're right too.

Clinton had the incumbency advantage, however, the more people see of Obama, generally, the more people like him.


- Sam Hussein Longhorn
by LonghornSam on Fri Feb 29, 2008 at 01:59:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Texas Continues To Trend Obama (none / 0)

You mean the more people see of what Obama WANTS them to see of him. If they actually sat down and did some reading, they wouldn't like him as much.
by BrandingIron17 on Sat Mar 01, 2008 at 05:16:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby was so right (none / 0)

How can a pollster like this come back after the recent successes, NOT!

He likes to mirror the storyline! Obama catching up with Hillary.


by bayareasg on Fri Feb 29, 2008 at 11:42:27 AM EST

Re: Texas Continues To Trend Obama (none / 0)

Fixed this for you:


At the same time, it's important to remember California, a large state with a large Hispanic population where polls showed Obama surging into a wide lead up until election day - [but a state that Obama spent only single day campaigning in at a time where he didn't have a huge money advantage, when most polls except Zogby still said it was a 10 point race and Clinton was still hailed as the shaky frontrunner and enjoyed substantial institutional support from the mayor of LA among others].


by zonk on Fri Feb 29, 2008 at 11:43:00 AM EST

More Polls (none / 0)

ARG, as unreliable as IA, has Obama +7 in Texas (51-44) and Clinton +5 in Ohio (50-45).

That BELO tracking poll? Has Obama taking a small, insignificant, 46-45 lead over HRC since their last poll in which she was up.


by NJPolitico84 on Fri Feb 29, 2008 at 11:47:53 AM EST

Re: Texas Continues To Trend Obama (none / 0)

what do you mean by "unfortunately, IA hasn't proven terribly reliable". ?

"unfortunately" all polls are usually wrong. Especially this primary season. But I do think you mean, "unfortunately for Hillary". You should say that. Unless you feel Zogy is "unfortunately proven terribly reliable" based on its current results.

also, not all polls have the two tied in early voting. Rasmussen has Obama leading Clinton in early voting while SUSA has clinton up. you're getting better but your reporting in these matters needs to be tighted up, still.

also, I think we need to stop talking about newHampshire like it's something that's easily reproduced. New Hampshire was a bit more complicated for two major reasons. The first being a competitive GOP primary was still being waged and secondly (and more importantly), John Edwards was still in the race and performing quite well.

lastly, it's quite telling seeing the sliding scale of the meaning of success change, on a daily basis if you're a Clinton supporter. It's almost worth graphing out.
!
by alex100 on Fri Feb 29, 2008 at 12:15:34 PM EST

Re: Texas Continues To Trend Obama (2.00 / 1)

"unfortunately" all polls are usually wrong. Especially this primary season. But I do think you mean, "unfortunately for Hillary". You should say that. Unless you feel Zogy is "unfortunately proven terribly reliable" based on its current results.

Dude, this is the most balanced election analysis seen on this site for weeks. Give the man a little love.

This is how progressives defeat themselves -- no viewpoint is ever so close to our own that we can't find something to be outraged over. So we waste our energy in internecine warfare over the first hint of deviationism. In this moment of promise, I beg you all -- cut each other some slack and keep your eyes on the assholes in Armani. When we hate on each other, they are the only winners.  


by EMTP democrat on Fri Feb 29, 2008 at 01:48:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Texas Continues To Trend Obama (none / 0)

i see your overall point and agree. however, this isn't the GE, a time where I'll agree with Todd 92% of the time (especially outside the area of cherry picking polling data and making predictions). I hope that his writing is sharper come that time. As I've written before, we can't have front-page writers typing up information that can be easily challenged when readers parrot that information in the real world. It doesn't do the progressive/liberal/whatever you want to call it cause good.
!
by alex100 on Fri Feb 29, 2008 at 03:51:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Hispanic turnout (none / 0)

I commented on this earlier, but there's no way that Hispanic turnout is 37%; Insider Advantage greatly overestimates it. Even if Hispanic turnout surges considerably, the most it could get to is around 32%; Burnt Orange Report projects it to be in the 25% range, and I did an analysis that agrees with them. It speaks volumes that the only poll showing Clinton ahead is fatally flawed.


John McCain
by MILiberal on Fri Feb 29, 2008 at 12:58:42 PM EST

Re: Hispanic turnout (none / 0)

I believe whatever burnt orange says. Those folks are phenomenal.


by EMTP democrat on Fri Feb 29, 2008 at 01:49:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Bill Clinton said it: (2.00 / 2)

"Now, one of Clinton's laws of politics is this. If one candidate is trying to scare you and the other one is try get you to think, if one candidate is appealing to your fears and the other one is appealing to your hopes, you better vote for the person who wants you to think and hope."


by ReillyDiefenbach on Fri Feb 29, 2008 at 12:59:19 PM EST

Re: Bill Clinton said it: (none / 0)

SO given her most recent fearmongering ad, then Obama should win no problems.


http://www.imvotingrepublican.com/ McCain Sucks!
by yitbos96bb on Fri Feb 29, 2008 at 05:56:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The Big Picture (2.00 / 2)

The Gallup national daily trendline.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/104563/Gallup -Daily-Tracking-Election-2008.aspx
Use the link to see more data.
It is time for HRC campaign to stop hurting the Democratic Party. The sleeping child ad, the suit against the Texas Democratic Party are both a step too far. Not only has the campaign Known About The Rules for months. Bill Clinton ran in the Texas Primary TWICE, under the same rules.
Enough.


by inexile on Fri Feb 29, 2008 at 01:33:24 PM EST

Re: The Big Picture (2.00 / 1)

I used an old link to the Gallup data use the new one:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/104695/Gallup -Daily-Tracking-Election-2008.aspx
by inexile on Fri Feb 29, 2008 at 01:40:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I don't trust the Gallup tracker (none / 0)

They had Clinton up 13 on Super Tuesday - not how it went down that day!  Then they had a big Clinton bump on the day of the Wisconsin primary (after the plagiarism charge). And Obama won big.

Is Obama up big now? Probably, but only because other stand-alone polling shows it. This tracker is useless.


by elrod on Fri Feb 29, 2008 at 07:24:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Texas Continues To Trend Obama (none / 0)

I'd like to point out, before someone whines about McCain being a strong contender against Obama (or even against anyone), he raised 12 million in February. 12. 3 times less than roughly what Clinton took in, and god knows how much less than Obama.


by Sean Siberio on Fri Feb 29, 2008 at 02:01:21 PM EST

Re: Texas Continues To Trend Obama (none / 0)

Obama is also closing in on Hillary in Ohio. The latest Rasmussen poll out today gives Clinton a 2% lead. A couple weeks ago she had a 24% lead.


by mecarr on Fri Feb 29, 2008 at 02:17:29 PM EST

Re: Texas Continues To Trend Obama (none / 0)

That mirrors the Zogby 2 point difference too.
Wish we'd see another SurveyUSA poll to judge it against.
by NJPolitico84 on Fri Feb 29, 2008 at 02:25:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Texas Continues To Trend Obama (none / 0)

I think its possible that she will lose the delegate and popular vote lead in Texas. Looking at the breakdown by area of that recent poll, Obama is winning solidly in the most populous area, not unlike his win in Missouri. The fact that Texas may shatter its 2004 total primary turnout in EARLY voting, says something about how large this race is going to be.


by Sean Siberio on Fri Feb 29, 2008 at 02:31:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

MORE Polls - from Fox (none / 0)

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics

Texas
Obama 48, Clinton 45

Ohio
Clinton 46, Obama 38


by NJPolitico84 on Fri Feb 29, 2008 at 02:25:56 PM EST

Re: MORE Polls - from Fox (none / 0)

in line with what i predicted two weeks back (texas for obama by 5 and clinton in Ohio by 5).

I'm taking those predictions with me until voting day.


!
by alex100 on Fri Feb 29, 2008 at 03:59:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Texas Continues To Trend Obama (none / 0)

FIGHT ON HILLARY~EVEN BEYOND MARCH 4TH....


by Check077 on Fri Feb 29, 2008 at 02:27:03 PM EST

Re: how many times I have to sa (none / 0)

35 million turned around the trend but not obama's 60+ million?


by Cheebs on Fri Feb 29, 2008 at 02:43:26 PM EST

Re: how many times I have to say: ignore Zogby pol (none / 0)

Obama won the debate. See the SUSA polls.


by EMTP democrat on Fri Feb 29, 2008 at 02:45:47 PM EST

Hillary is tracking up! (none / 0)

And it's great that the notoriously WRONG Polls and ones that include more Republicans in the mix, are the only ones that show Obama higher, like ZOGBY...WHO ENDORSED OBAMA  LOL

Even national polls are showing uptick for Hillary.

YEAAAHHHH!  Go HILLARY!


by LindaSFNM on Fri Feb 29, 2008 at 03:01:12 PM EST

Re: Hillary is tracking up! (none / 0)

the nice thing about originally being an edwards supporter was knowing that my candidate would probably lose in the end. The expectations game was pretty low.

please, for your own sanity, don't get too excited about anything (keep it cool). Tuesday has a fraction of a tiny percentage of a chance to work out for Hillary.


!
by alex100 on Fri Feb 29, 2008 at 03:57:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Texas Continues To Trend Obama (none / 0)

Hillary is winning Texas.  Count on it!  We saw these polls in New Hampshire.

The fact is this race is a tie.  The media made Obama the front runner. They have basically endorsed him and he has had a free ride. But he is not and never was the front runner.  He leads with less than 100 delegates and that does NOT include Florida or Michigan, and she is STILL ahead in Super delegate votes.  She will win Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, Wyoming, and other states as well as  Puerto Rico.  Obama should concede to Hillary. Regardless, she will win the nomination. She has the qualifications and respects ALL Americans.


by TexasDemocrat on Fri Feb 29, 2008 at 06:40:34 PM EST

OK...fantasy over (none / 0)

The race is a tie - in Texas and Ohio. But that's where your analysis ends. He is up 160 pledged delegates and 110 in total delegates.

This is not New Hampshire. There is no Michael Whouley in Texas. Hillary planned to fight for New Hampshire. She didn't even plan to think about Texas.


by elrod on Fri Feb 29, 2008 at 07:29:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Texas Continues To Trend Obama (none / 0)

Thats one poll.  


by Toddwell on Sat Mar 01, 2008 at 12:10:34 AM EST

LOL (none / 0)

Zogby? People are still listening to Zogby? The guy had Obama +13 in California right before Super Tuesday.
by BrandingIron17 on Sat Mar 01, 2008 at 05:26:46 AM EST


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