MyDD :: The Road Ahead For McCain

The Road Ahead For McCain

by Todd Beeton, Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 12:57:14 AM EST

So, how does McCain lose the nomination? I'm with Chris Bowers, I don't see it.

Per Chuck Todd on MSNBC tonight, as of tonight John McCain needs 1,098 delegates to win the nomination. Next Tuesday he'll win NY, CT, NJ, DE and AZ (all of which are winner take all,) which would award him 574 delegates toward that 1,098 alone. And that's a conservative estimate. He could also win in states such as MO where Huckabee is competing and is likely to take votes away from Romney, not to mention California where McCain is favored to win at least some if not most of the delegates at stake (they're awarded on a winner take all basis by congressional district.)

So, moving forward, preparing to go up against nominee McCain, how do we look? What Bowers said:

McCain is still a highly vulnerable target, no matter who wins the Democratic nomination (Clinton and Obama perform roughly equal against him). Better yet, defeating McCain by 5% or more would send the Republican Party reeling for a long, long time to come. Even better than that, a narrow victory over McCain, coupled with progressive primary challenger success and big wins in the Senate, would still produce the most progressive government in D.C. in forty-five years, and possibly ever. Beating McCain crushes Republicans and conservatives over the long-term, whereas beating Romney would only be a temporary victory.

Tags: 2008 presidential election, republican nomination, john mccain (all tags)

Permalink :: 35 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: The Road Ahead For McCain (none / 0)

I posted this on a different post but I'll put it here instead..

Most of John McCain's "independent supporters" are people who really haven't had time to know him and just believed whatever the media said about him ("maverick", etc.)...but if he wins the nomination, people will soon have to pay attention to him. Call this the Giuliani effect. People were all in love with him until they actually got to know him...then his support tanked. I predict this will happen to McCain. Clinton's team is one of the best machines, if not the best, in the election right now. McCain's various crazy statements, his comments on there "definitely being more wars" and "100 years in Iraq" will come back and I predict Clinton will start doing what Romney did earlier by slowly starting to question the man's sanity. It's obvious by now she's a very skilled debater while John McCain takes about 8 hours to spit a sentence out. Just wait ;) I am salivating at the chance at seeing Clinton tear apart John McCain's faux image.

by werd2406 on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 12:59:24 AM EST

Re: The Road Ahead For McCain (none / 0)

The problem with this scenario is that Hillary also has a lot of foreign policy extremism in her background, not only relating to Iraq (where she carefully said she would have a withdrawal "plan" in place in 60 days; not that troops would be withdrawn in 60 days), warmongering talk concerning Iran, and as being herself a definite obstacle for peace in Israel-Palestine, by advocating extremist right wing positions.

Anyone who believes that Hillary and Bill, that is, Billary, will plot a peaceful course in bringing the rest of world back on our side is fooling themselves.

Hillary will not dare criticize McCain's position because she advocates almost the same thing.

Hillary and McCain alike are not just AIPAC leaning, but they advocate for the same right wing warmongering course for America. Time to take back our foreign policy.

Click on Peace, Propaganda, & The Promised Land and learn the truth about the I/P conflict.

by shergald on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 07:18:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Road Ahead For McCain (2.00 / 1)

William Sheer from TruthDig

http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/2008 0129_obama_clinton_and_the_war/

Obama, Clinton and the War

By Robert Scheer

It should mean a great deal to progressives that in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination Sen. Ted Kennedy favors Sen. Barack Obama over two other colleagues he has worked with in the Senate.

(snip)

Kennedy was a rare sane voice among the Democrats in strongly opposing the Iraq war, and it is no small tribute when he states: "We know the record of Barack Obama. There is the courage he showed when so many others were silent or simply went along. From the beginning, he opposed the war in Iraq. And let no one deny that truth."

But that is precisely the truth that Sen. Hillary Clinton has shamelessly sought to obscure.

(snip)

It was a vote that has led to the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Iraqis, 3,940 U.S. service members--five more on Monday--and a debt in the trillions of dollars that will prevent the funding of needed domestic programs that Clinton claims to support. And it doesn't end with Iraq. Clinton has been equally hawkish toward Iran and, in a Margaret Thatcher-like moment, even attacked Obama for ruling out the use of nuclear weapons against Osama bin Laden.

(snip)

Does it not matter that Clinton's key foreign policy advisers are drawn heavily from the ranks of the neoliberals, who cheered as loudly for President Bush's war as did the neoconservatives?

(snip)

But isn't it troubling that she can't hold a candle to Sen. John McCain when it comes to fighting Pentagon waste or pushing for campaign-finance reform to curtail the power of lobbyists? Isn't it disturbing that Sen. Clinton has received more money than any other candidate of either party from the big defense contractors, according to a report on the Huffington Post? Why have the war profiteers given her twice the campaign contributions that they sent to McCain, if not for the expectation that she is on their side of the taxpayer rip-off that has seen the military budget rise to an all-time high?

(snip)

...if she lays claim to her husband's presidency, then she must also take responsibility for caving in to big media with the Telecommunications Act, selling out to the banks with the Financial Services Modernization Act, and killing the federal welfare program--a political gambit that deeply wounded millions of women and children.

Click on Peace, Propaganda, & The Promised Land and learn the truth about the I/P conflict.

by shergald on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 08:24:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Road Ahead For McCain (none / 0)

Do you HONESTLY believe she's going to be like GWB and promote wars all over the world? I mean really...

by werd2406 on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 11:11:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

If this continues, we will be a DIVIDED (2.00 / 1)

party in the Fall. I think this primary is dividing us and I just don't see us being united in the Fall.

I disagree with Hillary when she says we will be united. All I see is a United Republican party against Hillary if she was to win the primary.

We definitely have a chance of losing the general election against McCain.

The reason why we Dems have record turnouts at these primaries because there is excitement in the Party but this primary is tearing us all apart.

by puma on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 01:07:38 AM EST

Re: If this continues, we will be a DIVIDED (none / 0)

This is just the primary season ;) I don't think any lasting damage has been done as long as there aren't any big spats from here on out. As long as they both play cordial, i suspect all the bitterness will be on its way out sooner rather than later.

by werd2406 on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 01:09:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: If this continues, we will be a DIVIDED (none / 0)

So Hillary should do us all a favor, including you faithful Obama supporters, and drop out?

I proudly support Barack Obama for President!

by Zeitgeist9000 on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 01:29:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: If this continues, we will be a DIVIDED (none / 0)

"We definitely have a chance of losing the general election against McCain."

I will go farther than that. Even if McCain loses out to Romney next Tuesday, or Huckabee makes an improbable comeback, we have a chance of losing the general election. They have virtually unlimited money resources, a slime machine that will give no quarter and scruple at nothing, and (I have to say it, it is a requirement of my screen name) the mainstream media is in their corner. The GE will NOT be a cakewalk folks.

It is interesting to me to read the thoughts of MyDDers on which candidate would be easier to beat and why. I have learned a lot from many of you about the frames that Democrats might use in the fall campaign. But at the risk of a public cyberflogging, I will state unequivocally here that I WANT McCain to win the Republican nomination, for one reason only. The Republican candidate might very well win in November.

McCain may be crazy and wrong, and I would never ever vote for him in a million years. But he is the least crazy and wrong major contender in the Republican field. If he gets in, he will be awful, but not as awful as Bush/Cheney, IMHO. The rest of that bunch would actually stand a good chance of being WORSE than Bush.

So celebrate my friends. Rudy Ghoulini is not going to be President any time soon.

Your attempt to change the subject to "the issues" is irrelevant.

by itsthemedia on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 02:14:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: If this continues, we will be a DIVIDED (none / 0)

Not as bad as Bush? Im so sorry. Thats crap, he's a weasel with no morals or ethics just ambition and anger. Please do not spread crap like that around.

His promise of "many many more wars" is enough to curdle my guts for decades. In a democracy you are responsible for the use of military force. . . you. You the voter. Allowing a deranged, "many more wars" mass murderer, to be given a soft pass, is a crime I won't allow to go unanswered.

His flipping on whether the fundies are a threat to democracy or a boon to a Christian nation (help!) is but one more example. I don't know he sleeps at night.

His support for the 'surge' even at this late hour is enough. They are crazy, all of the Republican leaders. Whenever I hear bickering and infighting on the Democratic party side, I think of what the whacko, rights abusing, 'forner' killing, poverty enhancing, climate change ensuring, government wrecking, democracy subverting 'shock doctrine disaster creators' are doing and planning on doing to ruin the nation and the planet.

Which of the Democratic party candidates will serve is an important question, but compared to the monsters on the right, it pales in comparison.

If that sounds partisan, damn right. The British Medical Journal says 700,000 Iraqis are dead. And McCain says 100 years in Iraq and "many more wars" OMG.

by inexile on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 07:43:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: If this continues, we will be a DIVIDED (none / 0)

Oh yay! My cyberflogging!!

> Please do not spread crap like that around.

Since you are the only one who replied, I guess the other 8 people who read my "crap" were not too concerned about its insidious spread. Relax, it's a comment thread on the back page of a blog, not freakin' ABC News.

> Allowing a deranged, "many more wars" mass murderer, to be given a soft pass, is a crime I won't allow to go unanswered.

Soft pass? I said he's "crazy and wrong, and I would never ever vote for him in a million years." What the heck do you want from me? I will be happy to stipulate to any other reasonable pejorative terms you care to name, including all the ones you heaped on him in your post.

Look, I will break it down for you. I made a few simple statements.

A) The Republicans might win.
B) In my opinion McCain (while amazingly craptastic) is the least craptastic of the Republicans who have a chance at the nomination.
C) In my opinion McCain (while amazingly craptastic) is not as craptastic as Bush/Cheney.

If you want to argue that A is false, give it a try. If you don't agree with my opinion in B, tell me which of the major Republicans you think would be less craptastic than McCain and why. No fair picking Ron Paul, he never had a chance. If you don't agree with C, explain what bad thing McCain would do that Bush/Cheney would not or have not already done, or what you like about Bush/Cheney that McCain does not provide. (Oof, I think I just threw up a little in my mouth after that last phrase.)

If you are going to cyberflog me, at least stick to cyberflogging me for what I said. Don't think you are going to bait me into defending John McCain, because I won't.

Your attempt to change the subject to "the issues" is irrelevant.

by itsthemedia on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 01:51:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Road Ahead For McCain (none / 0)

Strickland is more likely the VP nominee

by werd2406 on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 01:16:26 AM EST

Nope (none / 0)

We don't want him going anywhere. We just suffered under Taft for about ... EVER. If Strickland leaves Ohio after 1 year to run as VP, we will be pissed!

by Cleveland John on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 08:05:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Road Ahead For McCain (none / 0)

I had to read the specific part of Chris Bowers' post at OpenLeft for myself, but basically what I come away with is that McCain at this point is the Republicans' best nominee because he represents the farthest reach of the party towards the middle. Bowers compared him with Schwarzenegger as an example, and I agree with him.

If you take a look at the Republicans over the past and current election cycles, the liberal wing of their party (Lincoln Chaffee was defeated), and now their moderate wing is being threatened in Susan Collins and now John McCain. I include the other blue state Republican senators in this group, with the exception of Olympia Snowe and Arlen Specter because they pretty much do their own thing, and they do it well. With the defeat of McCain in November, the Republicans will only have a true base, the conservative South. I believe we can make the argument at this point that the libertarian West is being incorporated into the Democratic Party.

Finally, one could also argue the Democratic Party has a conservative wing in Ben Casey, a moderate wing in Hillary Clinton, Evan Bayh, etc. and a liberal wing in Ted Kennedy. So we have actually expanded our "tent," so to speak, while the Republican camp has become increasingly exclusive.

I proudly support Barack Obama for President!

by Zeitgeist9000 on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 01:27:12 AM EST

Re: The Road Ahead For McCain (none / 0)

Hubris.

by bruh21 on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 01:31:40 AM EST

Re: The Road Ahead For McCain (none / 0)

Biden

by kristoph on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 01:49:00 AM EST

Josh Marshall on Romney (none / 0)

This is pretty funny:

I still believe in Mitt's dream. But man, that was one really dejected group of people standing behind him. They couldn't even manage to seem excited as Mitt talked aimlessly about all the conservative claptrap he doesn't really believe in.

John Edwards 2008

by MeanBoneII on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 02:00:19 AM EST

Re: Josh Marshall on Romney (none / 0)

If Romney only ran as himself, and not as some weird caricature of a conservative, he would actually do much better.

by kristoph on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 02:33:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Josh Marshall on Romney (none / 0)

He doesn't know who "himself" is, though.

by howie14 on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 06:18:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Josh Marshall on Romney (none / 0)

If Romney ran as himself (I assume we are talking about his MA Governor self), he would have finished behind Alan Keyes and Duncan Hunter. He has been running away from all his old positions because they are all violations of the conservative litmus tests that candidates must pass to be what the Republican base considers acceptably batshit crazy.

Your attempt to change the subject to "the issues" is irrelevant.

by itsthemedia on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 02:00:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Road Ahead For McCain (none / 0)

I can't see McCain losing. And this GOP result has reinforced my belief that the internet is vastly overrated, in terms of applicable evaluation. A year to 18 months ago I based a theory that McCain had little to no chance on message board postings, right wingers insisting they despised him. Now, there was polling backup, but primarily I relied on seemingly sharp conservatives, guys I otherwise respected. The internet simply does not represent enough of a cross section, and it's purely voluntary. I despise inept handicapping, and this time it was me.

McCain is certainly vulnerable. He lost in 2000 and he trailed badly this time. That screams vulnerability. But we're not going to defeat McCain by 5 points. The GOP will show up. Hell, they showed up in the '06 avalanche. Independents forged that result and we won't benefit in '06 numbers among indies against McCain, particularly since the Democratic congress has disappointed and Iraq is less of an automatic bump in our favor.

Everything about a Hillary general election points to razor tight. You won't have the wild bounces post-convention. Toss that old theory in the dumpster right now. And any poll with more than a 5 point national margin, either way, can be flushed with a laugh. A tight race with tight polls that barely move. This is the epitome of a race where you don't want to rely on coming from behind.

The tendency of open races after one party held office exactly 2 terms is a photo finish power struggle -- '60, '68, '76, '00. The only exception was '88, when voters wanted a 3rd Reagan term via Bush 41. The good news: the out party prevailed all four times, and that's us in '08.

Regarding a VP, this time you can't blow it and avoid the strategic choice, the one that blatantly and unapologetically aims to flip a vital state. Who gives a damn about balancing the ticket or picking the best/most qualified man for the job? Those are for purists. Purists write books examining failure. In 2000 Gore could have survived every hanging chad and cleansed voter roll if Bob Graham had been identified. Kerry didn't have a decent Ohio option. This time we can choose between Webb, Strickland and Brown. Shifting 3-4 points in one of those states can be all the difference between foundational favoritism and where Obama is now, running an admirable campaign with the math stacked against him.

by Gary Kilbride on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 02:08:27 AM EST

Re: The Road Ahead For McCain (none / 0)

A McCain candidacy could make Wes Clark into a potential VP candidate.

Hillary already has foreign policy creds of her own, but McCain shines in that area, although for many on the wrong side of the issue. A Wes Clark would neutralize some of that advantage, giving Hillary an advantage on the domestic front.

I think a 5% win is quite possible against McCain, because by November the areas McCain is weakest in will more than likely be the top issues of the GE: a faltering, perhaps disastrous economy, reforming health care, education, etc.

by georgep on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 02:26:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Road Ahead For McCain (none / 0)

If you want someone to attack McCain, I think Biden would be a better choice.

On the other hand, if you want a state, I say go with Strickland.

Web, much as Obama, is a future feature.

by kristoph on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 02:36:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Not roughly equal (none / 0)

Clinton and Obama did not perform "roughly equal" against McCain in Florida -- the fourth largest state in the country with 27 electoral college votes:

Clinton: 856,944
McCain: 693,425
Romney: 598,152
Obama: 568,930

Discuss amongst yourselves, but think about the implications for the general election matchups. This isn't some rinky dink robo-call poll based on 400 people. These are massive vote totals in a state that is highly representative of the country, as evidenced by its 50/50 swing state status in recent elections. Win Florida. Win the White House.

Some NFL teams draft based on combine workout numbers. Teams that win a lot (like the New England Patriots) draft based on proven performance.

by hwc on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 03:40:14 AM EST

Re: Not roughly equal (none / 0)

To be fair to Obama, though, Clinton started out with the poll advantage there and then no one campaigned.

Had Obamania toured Florida the numbers would have closed somewhat.

My guy, Edwards, never had a chance (even though he'd still be stronger in the GE).

by howie14 on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 06:24:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Not roughly equal (one more thing) (none / 0)

I do think that Clinton's "victory" rally wasn't a bad idea. The others should have done the same kind of thing.

Even if the state party is on the outs with the national, we still need Florida Dems to be energized come fall.

by howie14 on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 06:26:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Regardless of Dem Nominee (none / 0)

I don't get why he did so well in Iowa and then does terrible with the white vote everywhere else.

it's strange.

The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.

by nrafter530 on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 07:24:32 AM EST

retail campaigning and organization (none / 0)

He had more than six months to campaign in Iowa.

Also, Iowans never heard any kind of reason not to support Obama--not from the media or the Clinton and Edwards campaigns. The reasons not to support him are slowly now making their way into the public discourse.

John McCain: 100 years in Iraq "would be fine with me."

by desmoinesdem on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 08:35:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Winner take all? (none / 0)

The way I understood it was those states are "winner take all" only if a candidate gets a majority, 50%+1. If not, then it's proportional winner take all based on the congressional districts.

The sharpest criticism often goes hand in hand with the deepest idealism and love of country. ~RFK

by Vox Populi on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 07:52:20 AM EST

Re: The Road Ahead For McCain (none / 0)

If the overriding issue is the economy, I don't see how McCain can beat anybody. He brings nothing to the table and is on record numerous times admitting his own ignorance. Railing about "earmarks" won't cut it.

by Upstate Dem on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 07:56:51 AM EST

Re: The Road Ahead For McCain (none / 0)

I hate balanced tickets.

New leadership, a new generation. Everything should say the same thing.

Obama, Clinton or Edwards (sigh, and cross fingers) the VP should enhance the central message of change, not hedge it.

"In case you thought we were changing, look we aren't really."

There are lots of possibilities, because each of the three front runners are strong enough, no 'military' balancing is wanted. The president has paid military help you know.

Obama / Sibelius

Edwards / Gore

Clinton / Boxer

Obama / Napolitano

Edwards / Obama

Clinton / Dodd

But I look forward to seeing the fun. The office of the VP has been altered, the occupant does doesnt have to be bat-nuts, but it can still be an effective post for an activist vice-president.

Obama/Edwards

Go progressives!

by inexile on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 08:08:17 AM EST

Thank you Republicans (none / 0)

for taking immigration off the general election table!

Dems have an advantage with the weak/bad economy. The other issue will be "Should we fight in Iraq for the next 100 years? .. or begin a pullout?"

Hard core Republicans will stay home because they see (true or not) that McCain is Dem-lite.

by Cleveland John on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 08:11:00 AM EST

Hang Bush around McCain's neck (none / 0)

No matter who the nominee is.

Sure it won't hurt him among the dead enders, but we don't expect to get their votes anyway. It will hurt him among independents and even moderate Republicans.

For example this would be a perfect photo to use in an anti-McCain commercial or mailer.

"Let them eat cake" indeed.

by ces on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 11:46:52 AM EST