When there's an incumbent president up for re-election, the MAN is obvious for his party. Bush in 2004. Clinton in 1996. But how about Kerry in 2004? After Gore announced he wouldn't run in late 2002, Kerry became the MAN for the Democrats. He was, after all, the most serious, electable Democratic candidate. And in early 2004, he was the guy to beat (or so said the media). Then Dean came along and Kerry found himself in the absolute dumps in the Fall of 2003. But the Law of MAN always holds, and sure enough Kerry staged an "improbable" come-from-behind victory in Iowa and from there on out it was smooth sailing.

Let's formally define it:

The Law of MAN states that the Media's Appointed Nominee, or put in another way, Conventional Wisdom's early frontrunner for a party's presidential primary, will always win his (or her) party's nomination if he or she does not drop out of the race.

The Law of MAN has held in every single primary season for both parties since the election of 1964, the first complete modern media campaign cycle. It started with Barry Goldwater, who was so certain of his nomination that in the middle of JFK's first term, the two men made plans to criss-cross the country together in one jumbo jet as a new form of campaigning. It's a shame we never got to see that.

After Goldwater's stinging loss to LBJ in 1964, Nixon quickly became the MAN for the Republicans for 1968, nearly four years before his eventual election. The worse the loss, the quicker a MAN is determined, especially for Republicans. Sitting president LBJ was obviously the MAN for the Democrats, but he dropped out unexpectedly in March of 1968, and so the Law of MAN's final clause about dropping out kicks into effect.

After Nixon's ascension to the White House, Ted Kennedy became the MAN for the Democrats, but Chappaquiddick in 1969 ended his candidacy well before he could formally announce. Due to the shock of Watergate, the 1976 race's 20-person field was so wide open for the Democrats that there was no MAN for them, and thus unknown Jimmy Carter was able to win the nomination and then the White House. Immediately after Ford's loss, the Republicans knew who their MAN was for 1980: Ronald Reagan.

In 1984, early favorite and Carter VP Walter Mondale beat back insurgencies by Gary Hart and Jesse Jackson to hold on to the Democratic nomination. Interestingly, 1988 on the Democratic side was the only primary race that sort of violated the Law of MAN. Gary Hart was the MAN until a sex scandal hit him and he dropped out of the race. He would re-enter the race just before the Iowa caucuses, but the damage had been done and Dukakis became the nominee. Since he technically did drop out, I think the Law of MAN stands. On the Republican side, the Law of MAN easily held for VP Bush.

Throughout 1991, the MAN/golden-boy Bill Clinton consistently led in the national polls (and the ladies' hearts) well before he formally jumped into the race. He too was rocked by some of those pesky sex scandals, but he was able to recover by Super Tuesday and earn the moniker of the "Comeback Kid." Bob Dole's status as the MAN for 1996 was never much in doubt, despite the challenges from the right by kooks Pat Buchanan and Steve Forbes. Our current president was the MAN for Republicans in 2000 as soon as it was obvious that he'd coast to re-election as Governor of Texas in 1998.

We've been already over Kerry in 2004, so let's focus on the current primary season. Think back to a few years ago. Who was the media already appointing the frontrunner for their respective party? McCain, who had become Bush's lapdog in 2004 and was not-so-quietly getting Bushies to commit to him, became the MAN for the Republicans in 2008 during the 2004 campaign. That status was solidified after George Macaca Allen's defeat in November 2006. And of course, after Kerry's heartbreaking loss, the media was quick to annoint Hillary as the front-runner with non-stop stories on how she had perfectly positioned herself for 2008.

And so it will go. Clinton is the MAN, as is McCain, and neither have dropped out. They may not win the Iowa caucuses today. But you can be sure, after the first week of February, that the Law of MAN will have held. History wouldn't have it any other way.