One Nick Lampson.

What a list!

This is absolutely fantastic, a brilliant find.

For now at least we know who we should be looking at.

He's a real progressive in a traditionally Republican district.

Let's donate now:
http://www.johnhallforcongress.com/

Actually Chris, you missed the top 4 that Howie lists above the next 16:

Lampson (TX-22)
Mahoney (FL-16)
McNerney (CA-11)
Space (OH-18)

     The list for their own targets is terrible, but they predicted our targets pretty well.  Mahoney and Lampson should be among their targets.  Shuler, Sestak (?!), Rodriguez, Herseth (?!), Ellsworth, and Altmire aren't going to lose.  They seem way too focused on freshmen Democrats.  And I see that they're going waste money in Indiana right after the voters throw the hated Republican governor Mitch Daniels out of office.  I hope their priorities remain this messed up.

Thoughts on Shuler?  Seems to me he is there to stay if he wins the next election.  He's being more moderate than many of us like, but that will probably make him safe.

I'm glad that Chris has such confidence in Sestak's electability.  I am equally pleased that Joe is not taking the PA-7 seat for granted.

From my in-box today, part of a message from Joe:

In my short-time in the political arena, I have learned that there is an unfortunate but necessary side to politics, and that is the need to raise funds to get one's message heard.  Thank you for helping me do that.  

http://joesestak.com/take-action/contrib ute/

    Tom Davis is marked with one asterisk, indicating that Rove thinks he's likely to retire.

    FDoes this mean Rove thinks Sen. John Warner is likely to retire? Would Davis retire unless he was going to run for Warner's seat?

Longtime reader, first-time poster.

Why would you strain your eyes on a grainy YouTube image when you can get the whole slideshow (target lists included) on the Speaker's blog?
http://www.speaker.gov/blog/?p=187

Wow.  I'm shocked, really shocked that the Republicans aren't concerned about losing WA-08, Congressman Dave Reichert (R-Mercer Island).  He barely held on to his seat last year, winning by barely 7000 votes against a virtual unknown in a district that voted for Kerry.  And hey, Darcy Burner's running again this year, ready to outdo her $3 million fundraising performance and put the final nail in the coffin for Sheriff Hairspray.  Check it out:

URL="http://darcyburner.com/[/URL]

What throws a monkey wrench into the GOP's plans is that some older Republicans will retire in 2008, because they don't want to spend their golden years in the minority.  Don't be surprised if about 10-15 Republicans announce they are leaving the House.  That could open up some districts and at the very least force the GOP to put resources into safer districts just to keep what they have.  

Democrats should also focus on NY-26. Tom Reynolds came close to defeat last year, and I've heard more and more people complain that his time is up since he was re-elected. The only thing the Democrats need is a young, charismatic candidate-- unlike the 73-year-old industrialist Republican-turned-Democrat who ran in 2004 and 2006-- to take Reynolds head-on in an aggressive campaign.

It is also interesting that Paul Hodes in NH-2 is not on that list.  NH-2 was a republican district every year from 1914 - 1990, and again from 1994 - 2006.  I know that there have been some demographic changes in NH, but NH-2 is still more conservative than NH-1 (Bush won NH in 2000 on the strength in NH-2, and won NH-2 in 2004 while he was losing the state).  

I think the most likely explanation for the failure of NH-1 and NH-2 to appear on Rove's list is that the NH GOP imploded in 2006.  The Republicans are in tatters, and do not have a state party that can communicate effectively with DC.  The Dems hold both House seats, the Governorship and the Legislature.

I read this as good news for the attempts to get Sununu replaced in 2008.

Jindal is presumably on the list because he's running for governor this year.  Even if he doesn't end up losing the govship and staying in LA-01, that district has been heavily Republican ever since Bob Livingston first got elected in 1976, and the last four cycles have had the Repugs running away with 80% of the vote.  And Katrina hasn't changed that equation.

I didn't follow that race closely and didn't donate to anyone in the primary campaign. After Braley won the primary, I sent his campaign a check knowing virtually nothing about him (except that he is a laywer from Waterloo). I just figured we ought to be able to win back Nussle's seat.

I'm thrilled that he is in the progressive caucus and absolutely loved his questioning of that idiot yesterday.

Why isn't Vern Buchanan (FL 13) on the list of defenses? He "won" by 389 votes (with 18,000 votes uncounted by touchscreen voting machines in Sarasota County, which is more Democratic than Republican).

looks like those of us in the Philly market will be bombarded with ads again in 2008.  It sure is a change from living in L.A.

NY-19 - Not too fearful about this one. The district has been rapidly moving into the Blue column over the past couple of years, as there has been a major influx of urban refugees into the Lower Hudson Valley Region (especially since 9/11)

NY-20 - Gillibrand has been a great representative so far, though I fear she'll be in the battle of her life next year. Although the 20th District only gave 53% to Bush in 2004, there is a very strong Republican flavor at the local level here, and according to a DFA operative I spoke with, the GOP currently holds about 90% of the offices within the district. Besides this, there are still 80,000 more registered Republicans than Democrats in NY-20. It is expected that multi-millionaire GOP activist Sandy Treadwell will challenge Gillibrand. With virtually no Democratic infastructure within the district, there will certainly need to be a strong grassroots effort behind Gillibrand's next campaign.

The most interesting thing in Rove's power point presentation was the year-by-year national vote margin.  Rove shows Democrats winning by 12 points in 2006 vs. a 6 point Republican win in 1994 and calls it what it was: a tsunami.  They did a brilliant job of winning close races through their 72 hour program but got killed on the strategic level.  Corruption, the economy, and Iraq combined.  What that means is that we really do have a strong opportunity to pick up a nice chunk of seats in 2008.  

I was surprised to see Zach Space as high up on the chart as he was.  He won pretty easily.  Aside from the NH Democrats, I was also surprised to see freshman Republican Dean Heller of Nevada off the list.  A 50-45 win was Ok but not overwhelming.  Maybe they figured any Republican win not an absolute squeaker was a landslide.

is the other 26 slides.

I too went to see what Rove's target list was.  And the fact that he thinks Cochran is retiring sure is exciting.

But check out the first 20 slides, guys.  It's the Rs trying to convince themselves that they didn't really lose.  Or if they did, they barely lost (by bogus historical standards), or they were destined to lose (by bogus historical standards), and they still won a lot even while they were losing.  Truly stupid stuff like that.

That is extremely encouraging.  As I've been saying about McConnell's Senate: if the Rs fail to accept the lesson the voters gave them in 2006, and force the voters to send the same message twice, the voters will oblige.  The GOP apparatus is so big and committed and unwieldly that it is unwilling to make any real adjustments just because of one cycle.  It looks like the GOP -- Bush, the Senate Rs, the big three pres candidates -- have not really made any changes because of 06.  Partly because their own moronic base won't let them.  (Bwahaha beware cultivating dogmatic morons as your base!!)  There are lonely voices in op-ed pages, in Novak columns and such, saying that "things have got to change by 08 or we'll be wiped out."  The actual GOP/ConservativeMovement isn't listening to those voices, I don't think.  It looks to me like the GOP is gonna keep plowing right towards that second iceberg, because their operation is too big and too fixed to adjust.  I personally think we need to prepare for a second wave, because I think the GOP is gonna force the voters into destroying them again.

Specifically, we need to recruit and electorally position ourselves as if a second wave is coming.  There are multiple incumbents in New Jersey, Michigan, Ohio, Illinois, and New York that can still lose.  Hell, I'd want to be in position in places like ID-Sen-Open.  Obviously it may not work out that way, and more importantly, one presumes that the GOP candidate will pivot to the center somehow after the primary.  But they are presently stuck between their own immovable base, who doesn't yet accept that they've lost and have to change, and the independents and moderates and swing voters, who are completely over Republican rhetoric.  There are ways to finesse this, such as find a known conservative who sounds moderate (Thompson), instead of a known moderate who has to sound conservative (McCain).  But with Rove's office apparently also believing the fiction that they didn't really lose, they may not try to adjust at all.  Which means we have a massive opportunity.

First, I am surprised by some of the names on this list. They really think they can win back Sestak's seat? Ha! Admiral Sestak has that seat as long as he wants it.

Whoa, not so fast there, skipper. You'd be right, except that local issues could intervene. The local Republican machine is whipping up the citizenry about new flight paths for the Philly airport. If 2008 rolls around, and Sestak has had trouble putting a stop to the FAA's plans to send many flights right over the middle of Delaware County, Sestak could lose. The local Repug talking point is now "This is a federal issue, and if our congressman can't fix this, then we need somebody tough enough to do the job."

Take that issue off the table and I suspect that Sestak is pretty unbeatable.

Well, i mostly agree with the list. At least - these will be relatively most endangered Democratic districts. But i have doubts about PA-7, TX-23 and SD-AL (if Herseth runs for House, not Senate) at least (and may be - some other as well)..