MyDD :: Q-Poll: Lamont Up by 6, 51-45

Q-Poll: Lamont Up by 6, 51-45

by Matt Stoller, Mon Aug 07, 2006 at 07:51:44 AM EST

This post is sponsored by "Grassroots": The Movie, which is a documentary shot during the Howard Dean campaign. There are a bunch of video clips on the bottom left of the web site, shots of people getting involved in democracy for the first time. It's pretty cool, going back in time to that moment when many of us fell in love with the process. It's worth watching the Larouche supporter getting thrown out of the debate.

I went around and played with the site The new Quinnipiac poll has Lamont leading by 6 points, according to an NPR listener. Quinnipiac hasn't released its polling yet, but the link is here when they do. This is being confirmed by other media outlets. Lamont's lead is down to 51-46 according to the Quinnipiac poll.

Update: The AP has it, as does Political Wire.

Update: Now that I got an hour more of sleep, here are some trends. Lieberman has made gains almost entirely among one demographic group: moderate and conservative Democratic women who make between $30k and $50k a year and have no college degree. But in that demographic, the shift has been dramatic. He has increased his lead from 49-45 to 53-43 among moderate/conservative Democrats and cut his deficit among women from 43-53 to 47-47. He has also totally reversed his deficit among those who make $30-50K a year, going from a 51-46 deficit to a 49-47 lead. And among those without a college degree, he has moved from a 51-43 deficit to a 49-46 lead.

Among liberals, men, those with college degrees, and those making more than $50k a year, the race is basically the same.

Tags: Ned Lamont, Joe Lieberman, CT-Sen, Connecticut, Quinnipiac (all tags)

Permalink :: 30 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: Q-Poll: Lamont Up by 6, 51-46 (none / 0)

51-46 is up by 5 ...

by globecanvas on Mon Aug 07, 2006 at 08:07:39 AM EST

Re: Q-Poll: Lamont Up by 6, 51-46 (none / 0)

According to the linked articles, iit should read 51-45.

Give Matt some slack. I suspect he, like many people following the race here, haven't had much sleep over the past couple days, and probably won't get much more sleep for a couple more days.

by aldon on Mon Aug 07, 2006 at 08:13:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Q-Poll: Lamont Up by 6, 51-46 (none / 0)

However 51-45, the un-typo'd poll results, is indeed up by 6.

by globecanvas on Mon Aug 07, 2006 at 08:12:16 AM EST

Re: Q-Poll: Lamont Up by 6, 51-46 (3.00 / 1)

The Q-Poll data backs up a lot of conventional wisdom at least on this blog. Lamont leads by 21 points among college graduates. If family income is under $50 K, voters break towards Lieberman; over $50 K and voters break to Lamont. (Connecticut is a wealthy state with a high cost of living.)

The national ramifications of this are pretty clear. If Lieberman loses, the DLC types among office holders will STFU. A Lamont win not only stifles the talk but adds some spine to Democratic legislators in D.C. Elizabeth Auster of the Cleveland Plain Dealer is not nearly as blunt but she blames this along with the distance Joe created from CT voters.

Ironically, Joe was elevated to celebrity and VP status simply because he was the most outspoken "moral" critic of Bill Clinton within the upper echelons of the Democratic Party. Joe's unwillingness to allow criticism by Democrats of a Republican President is what has placed him in trouble.

One win transforms the political landscape nationally. It earns respect in the way that close losses don't. Close losses may get you more politeness from the establishment. One win brings us into respect.

by David Kowalski on Mon Aug 07, 2006 at 08:44:12 AM EST

Re: Q-Poll: Lamont Up by 6, 51-46 (none / 0)

You guys are awfully happy about a poll that cuts Lamont's lead by more than half in just two days.

Lamont's campaign has a faint odor of Howard Dean in Iowa to me ... slip sliding away.

by Dan Conley on Mon Aug 07, 2006 at 09:05:25 AM EST

Re: Q-Poll: Lamont Up by 6, 51-46 (none / 0)

After at least two polls showing a 10 point lead, the 13 pointer was not credible. It is a lead outside the margin of error the day before the primary. Nobody has wavering voters and the undecideds are few in number.

I expected Lieberman to make a run. After looking carefully at joe for months, voters had to be expected to give Ned the close look when he seemed like the winner. It looks like he's survived that. We'llknow tomorrow.

by David Kowalski on Mon Aug 07, 2006 at 09:49:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Q-Poll: Lamont Up by 6, 51-46 (none / 0)

Not rreally. We rep[eatedly said that we did not beleive the 13 point lead. We always believed the race was closer than that.

by Chris Bowers on Mon Aug 07, 2006 at 10:03:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

So, what you're saying is... (none / 0)

That Holy Joe gets basically the same demographic splits as the Republicans do.

What a shocker. Color me stunned.

by ElitistJohn on Mon Aug 07, 2006 at 10:10:55 AM EST

Re: Q-Poll: Lamont Up by 6, 51-45 (none / 0)

This is still good news. This is what the fourth poll showing Lamont ahead above the margin of error? How on Earth can you spin this as bad news for Lamont. I don't want to get over-confident, but this race is looking very, very good.

Finally a victory for the good guys.

I agree with David Kowalski, this victory will have far reaching implications...

But on an even more positive note, do we have any figures regarding the voter turn among demographics? By this I mean, do "educated" voters turn out at higher numbers than "un-educated" ones in Democratic primaries?

Because if they do...we may do even better tomorrow night.

Good luck everyone!

by JackBourassa on Mon Aug 07, 2006 at 10:11:16 AM EST

Re: Q-Poll: Lamont Up by 6, 51-45 (none / 0)

I should really learn to proof-read!

by JackBourassa on Mon Aug 07, 2006 at 10:14:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Q-Poll: Lamont Up by 6, 51-45 (3.00 / 1)

It may be because I am in the middle of reading What's the Matter with Kansas, but the I find these poll trends troubling. The people who are trending towards Lieberman are the exact people progressives need to win over to start a new movement. Yet these people are moving away from the more liberal candidate in the race towards the more conservative one.

First things first which is to make sure Lamont win. After that, some serious analysis needs to be done to understand this trend and determine what we need to do to get these people to start supporting progressive candidates.

by John Mills on Mon Aug 07, 2006 at 10:15:08 AM EST

Re: Q-Poll: Lamont Up by 6, 51-45 (none / 0)

All political movements start among intellectuals first. A growing group of Bill Buckley conservatives was yelling and screaming in the 70s and 80s before conservatism hit the lower middle class in the 90s.

Besides, every movement has its own demographics. That's not to say that we don't need blue-collar workers. I'm just saying that if our movement doesn't need to look like the 90s conservative movement to be legit.

The truth about McCain

by nstrauss on Mon Aug 07, 2006 at 10:54:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Q-Poll: Lamont Up by 6, 51-45 (none / 0)

We cannot sustain the movement if we do not win back the working/middle class who started defecting with the election of Reagan. The electoral numbers don't work.

by John Mills on Mon Aug 07, 2006 at 12:19:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Q-Poll: Lamont Up by 6, 51-45 (none / 0)

Of course we need blue collar workers, and we'll have them. The Lamont campaign has been led intellectually by the netroots, but its votes came from across the spectrum.

The truth about McCain

by nstrauss on Wed Aug 09, 2006 at 02:34:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Q-Poll: Lamont Up by 6, 51-45 (none / 0)

The only way to make this country more progressive is to reform education. That means getting rid of drill-and-kill standardization and replacing it with critical thinking courses and a deeper understanding of society and politics.

The history of the left is a history of purists betraying the progressive movement so that they can feel good about their righteous selves.

by Populism2008 on Mon Aug 07, 2006 at 12:22:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Q-Poll: Lamont Up by 6, 51-45 (none / 0)

Here's one sad but true element about this poll:

The people surging for Libermann are the least or less likely to vote.

by attorney at arms on Mon Aug 07, 2006 at 11:15:48 AM EST

Re: Q-Poll: Lamont Up by 6, 51-45 (none / 0)

??? conservative to moderate dems are the least likely to vote?? or do you mean lamont, and if you do- I am not sure thats true.

by bruh21 on Mon Aug 07, 2006 at 11:23:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Q-Poll: Lamont Up by 6, 51-45 (none / 0)

I think the poster is referring to people in that socio-economic demographic.

by rfahey22 on Mon Aug 07, 2006 at 11:25:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Q-Poll: Lamont Up by 6, 51-45 (none / 0)

okay thx

by bruh21 on Mon Aug 07, 2006 at 11:48:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Let's not read too much in (none / 0)

I get tired of saying this, and some of you are probably tired of hearing it. But the MOE for those subgroups has got to be pretty damned big.

Matt, I'll bet a $50 contribution to the campaign of your choice that NONE of those subgroup differences you mention here are statistically significant. I'm not even sure the overall change from 54-41 to 51-45 is significant; I need to check the previous Q-poll to get the sample size and MOE.

by RT on Mon Aug 07, 2006 at 11:17:03 AM EST

Re: Let's not read too much in (none / 0)

I'm getting a MOE of 4.8% in full-sample comparisons between last week's poll and the one released this morning. So the 3% drop in Lamont's support and the 4% increase in Lieberman's support aren't significant.

Nor, by my calculations, is the drop in Lamont's lead from 13% to 6%. (One has to assume a value of the correlation coefficient r for this calculation; I'm using r=-1, but it's true for all r<-.064.)

That isn't to say it's not real; it probably is. Just more like 85% probable rather than the statistician's usual standard of 95% likelihood. So for our purposes, I'd trust the overall poll result - chances are Holy Joe's final push is making a difference.

But I still wouldn't trust comparisons of assorted subgroups from one poll to the next, without knowing how many people were polled each time in each of those subgroups. The MOE on a half-sample comparison (college/no college, M/F, etc.) is running at about 7%, and it goes up, of course, when comparing the results on even smaller groups (e.g. the different income strata) from one poll to the next.

by RT on Mon Aug 07, 2006 at 12:22:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

What does this mean? (none / 0)

Does this mean that all the talk about 'short ride for rape victims' Joe either

1) had NOT reached these people

the national NARAL etc endorsements mean more to them
the 'short ride' arg hit a home run with them?

Or is it simply that Bill Clinton's visit meant a lot to women and low income people? Or that Jackson/Sharpton meant a lot in terms of negative motivation for Joe voters?

by drowsy on Mon Aug 07, 2006 at 11:38:16 AM EST

The closing of the race means money matters... (3.00 / 1)

...and Lieberman outspent Lamont by 2:1.

by EricJaffa on Mon Aug 07, 2006 at 12:06:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Q-Poll: Lamont Up by 6, 51-45 (3.00 / 1)

The moderate and conservative Democratic women: This is very nearly the same group (married women) that was the real swing vote that put Bush over the top in 2004 (not so-called "values voters").
I'm very interested in why this demographic continues to lean to the right. Do warmongering Republican policies make them feel safer? Are they driven by fear? Are they more likely to defer to patriarchial men already in positions of authority?

by johnalive on Mon Aug 07, 2006 at 11:51:58 AM EST

Re: Q-Poll: Lamont Up by 6, 51-45 (none / 0)

Me too. We need to understand what is driving these people to the right. Some post election analysis is definately in order.

by John Mills on Mon Aug 07, 2006 at 12:27:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I have the same questions as johnalive (none / 0)

this comment though feels good and grounded.

From Larkspur at http://www.myleftnutmeg.com/showDiary.do ?diaryId=2586

"I also attribute Lieberman's rise in the latest poll to the fact that all CT papers endorsed him since the last poll was taken, so he got instant media attention and the papers regurgitated Lieberman's talking points. These endorsements most likely affected undecideds and those not paying much attention to the race."

by drowsy on Mon Aug 07, 2006 at 12:00:14 PM EST

Re: Q-Poll: Lamont Up by 6, 51-45 (none / 0)

It's not shocking. People like Clinton ust have been reassuring to this demographic. And they are also more likely to feel sorry for an incumbment. I don't have any hard facts to back up my guesses.

You guys are doing an awesome job. Just remember to focus on mobilising the converted to the polls instead of trying to convert fresh new people. It's too late for that.

by Pravin on Mon Aug 07, 2006 at 12:15:16 PM EST

Zoinks (none / 0)

From FDL

*xyz says:
August 7th, 2006 at 9:13 am
Possibly Significant News Regarding Lieberman (from ConnecticutBlog):

What is Joe up to now?

Team Joementum is up to something.

There are reports of something happening at the Lieberman office in Stamford and it involves the Secret Police and an inportant official from D.C.

I'll have more info soon. If anyone reading this is in Stamford right now, get down to Lieberman's office with a camera, take some photographs (and/or video) and get in touch with me.

by drowsy on Mon Aug 07, 2006 at 12:21:09 PM EST

Re: Q-Poll: Lamont Up by 6, 51-45 (none / 0)

Looking at the big picture, the two similar Q-Polls are the July 20 one with Lamont up 51-47 and the August 7 poll with Lamont up 51-45. Within these similar numbers, the polls show:

The number of voters who might change has been cut in half from 19% to 10%.

Voters are fixed in concrete about Joe Lieberman. Only two percent have no opinion or refuse to state. Lamont has more room to go up as 18% fall into that category. Lamont has shot up in his favorable rating from 26% on July 20 to 42% on August 7 without moving from 51%. I read that as his vote solidifying.

Joe's options:

1) Go negative and try to nudge some more of the "mixed" opinion voters into his camp. (That's a 21% share of the total). With only 10% of the voters undecided, most are likely here.

2) Go positive. Joe might want to end with the warm fuzzies. Same as number two.

3) Concentrate on getting out his vote and forget the rest. This seems like a good idea, frankly for an August primary.

Lamont's options:

1) More than 1 in 6 voters has no opinion of Ned Lamont. The effort here to define himself as someone who will support traditional Democratic goals and listen to the voters is really good. If this does not hit in the primary, he is strongly positioned for the general election.

2) Stress the positive in a quickie. He's got a 42-18 favorable rating among Democrats to a 40-34 rating for Lieberman. There are good vibes here.

3) Get out the vote.

by David Kowalski on Mon Aug 07, 2006 at 12:57:21 PM EST

Within the margin of error! (none / 0)

What's the MoE? 3%? 4.5%?

by delmoi on Mon Aug 07, 2006 at 06:37:37 PM EST

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