bumped again for old times' sake - Matt
Update: If you think this is an important idea, please email it to anyone you know in politics.
Last week, I put up a post entitled Voter Knowledge and the House of Representatives. Referencing long-term National Election Survey data, I noticed that whoever the electorate thought was in charge of the House of Representatives tended to lose seats in the House of Representatives. Since 1970, there have been eight congressional elections where 64% or more of the voting public held the same opinion on which party controlled the House of Representatives. Here were the results in those elections:
- In 1972, 64% of the electorate believed that Democrats controlled the House of Representatives. That year, Democrats lost 13 seats in the House of Representatives.
- In 1980, 71% of the electorate believed that Democrats controlled the House of Representatives. That year, Democrats lost 25 seats in the House of Representatives.
- In 1982, 68% of the electorate believed that Republicans controlled the House of Representatives. That year, Republicans lost 27 seats in the House of Representatives.
- In 1986, 67% of the electorate believed that Republicans controlled the House of Representatives. That year, Republicans lost 5 seats in the House of Representatives.
- In 1994, 70% of the electorate believed that Democrats controlled the House of Representatives. That year, Democrats lost 54 seats in the House of Representatives.
- In 1996, 73% of the electorate believed that Republicans controlled the House of Representatives. That year, Republicans lost 5 seats in the House of Representatives.
- In 1998, 66% of the electorate believed that Republicans controlled the House of Representatives. That year, Republicans lost 4 seats in the House of Representatives.
- In 2002, 72% of the electorate believed that Democrats controlled the House of Representatives. That year, Democrats lost 6 seats in the House of Representatives.
In the years that I did not list, voters were much more split over who controlled the House of Representatives. It would appear that if roughly two-thirds or more of the electorate is convinced Party X controls the House, then Party X loses seats in the House. In fact, in every election since 1970 where there was a large swing in seats--1980, 1982, and 1994--there was unusually broad agreement among voters over who controlled the House of Representatives.
As I explain on the flip, I think this finding has important ramifications for our message in 2006.
With the 2006 elections coming up, I think this is a really important finding. As long as voters know that Republicans have a majority in the House of Representatives, a fact which they have most definitely not known since at least 1998, Democrats should be able to make real gains, or even take control of the chamber. This is especially the case with
congressional job approval at historic lows. And don't be fooled / worried about polls that show Democratic leaders in congress with approval ratings equally as low as Republican approval ratings. That is a phenomenon caused by
massive Democratic disapproval of Democratic leaders. Independents actually rate Democrats in congress much higher than they rate Republicans. Republicans even rate Democrats in congress higher than Democrats rate Republicans in congress. And
those same Democrats who disapprove of their congressional leaders are all indicating that they will vote Democrat in 2006 anyway. That is why
Democrats hold large leads in generic congressional ballots despite equally low job approval ratings.
Given all of this, my proposal for the 2006 Democratic message is almost disturbingly simple. Rather than getting too much into the weeds over message, slogans, and policy proposals, in 2006 we something far more basic--something that the established news media cannot filter out and something that even Republicans are forced to agree with. Maybe one of our biggest messages in 2006, if not our primary message, needs to simply be to point out to the American public the simple fact that Republicans control congress. Run a voter education campaign with a very simple lesson: Republicans control congress.
Here is one possible script for a 30-second spot in such a campaign:
Script
Do you disapprove of the way the congress is doing its job?
Republicans control congress.
In Washington, DC, Republicans have a majority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate.
Tom DeLay was the Republican majority leader in the House of Representatives for three years. Last year, he was forced to resign because he is under indictment for money laundering charges.
Do you disapprove of the way congress is doing its job?
Republicans control congress.
Paid for by the Democratic National Committee.
Of course, the ad could also be "paid for by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee" as well. It doesn't really matter--as long as the message gets out there.
I beg any Democratic pollster working with the Democratic congressional leadership to at least test this message out. Pose a generic ballot test. Then, ask people if they know who controls congress. Compare cross-tabs by knowledge and party to the first question. Then, tell the people surveyed who controls congress. Tell them several times. Finally, retake the generic ballot and see if there is any movement within the cross-tabs.
These ads, or something similar to them, would work. Please, at least try them in a focus group. I swear, if you put five million behind these ads, national IQ on who controls Congress would soar. When that happens, we will win. Further, these ads are almost so dumb that they would be guaranteed to get some free press. And how would anyone filter out the message of these ads? There is simply no way to argue with them. How do you Swift Boat a message like that? This is an Occum's Razor type campaign--the most effective solution is the easiest one.
Maybe two years of blogging about elections have made me much more cynical than a man of my age should be. I write this because I am starting to become convinced that all this talk about what issues Democrats should focus on in 2006, all this talk about the quality of various Democratic policy proposals in 2006, all of the talk about the Democratic slogan for 2006, and even the talk of the soon to be released Democratic platform for 2006 is just way too much putting the cart before the horse. Sure, Americans are concerned as hell about Iraq, gas prices and, um--well, I'm sure there is something they care about besides Iraq and gas prices, even if I can't name it right now--but I am doubtful that any Democratic policy message / proposal has any chance of getting through the established news media right now. I mean, we have seen it time and time again: the established news media just filters out our messages and our narratives, and replaces them with Republican narratives, talking points, and memes.
Peter Daou describes this as well as anyone.
Why are we talking about what message to bring to the American public when the primary mechanism for delivering our message is so utterly hellbent on not delivering that message? Even if we did develop an incredibly strong message and excellent policy proposals, and even if the established news media for some reason did not filter them out, would the nine weeks from Labor Day until Election Day be long enough for it to sink in to the American electorate? I am doubtful.
Let's get more basic than all of that. When voters agree on who controls the House, whoever they think controls the House takes a beating at the polls. Let's run with that fact and make it a prominent aspect of our 2006 campaign. As long as voters both disapprove of the way congress is doing its job and do not know that Republicans have control of congress, we are never going to retake control back.
