Some Early Thoughts

by Chris Bowers, Tue Nov 07, 2006 at 07:57:10 PM EST

Webb won the Virginia exit poll 52-48, so expect a close race there, with Webb slightly favotred. The early voting is coming in primarily from the heavy Republican areas of the state.

IN-08 looks almost certyainly like a pickup. KY-03 looks pretty good too. KY-04, not so much. The other races in KY and IN look very close.

Still hard to tell waht is going to happen.




Tags: election returns (all tags)

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Re: Some Early Thoughts (none / 0)

If we get KY-03, we get at least +30 in the House.  THAT'S perhaps THE bellwether at this early juncture.

C'mon, Yarmuth!  Hold on!


McCain is defining Obama, and Obama is neither defining himself, nor McCain. This is awful.
by jgarcia on Tue Nov 07, 2006 at 08:04:59 PM EST

Well, I'd much rather win KY-3 than KY-4 anyway. (3.00 / 1)

Cause a blue district can be held indefinitely.  Even if Yarmouth has to pull a Dayton and resign for a stronger D in 2008, knocking off the strong R incumbent is a huge deal in that district.

By the way, what a stud Mark Dayton is.  He saved our party millions and millions, and saved the seat.  The GOP is wishing Burns and Cubin would've done the same.


by texas dem on Tue Nov 07, 2006 at 08:05:07 PM EST

Re: Well, I'd much rather win KY-3 (none / 0)

and Lewis is running not just as a conservative, but bragged about being hard-right.

Somehow I don't think running as a Dem, but screaming about being a rightwinger is a good strategy (see this race and Ford in TN).  

Sure, run as a moderate and don't stress social issues.  But don't openly and loudly motherfuck your base and party.


McCain is defining Obama, and Obama is neither defining himself, nor McCain. This is awful.
by jgarcia on Tue Nov 07, 2006 at 08:09:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Well, I'd much rather win KY-3 than KY-4 anywa (none / 0)

Well look he's my senator for the next few hours (before Amy) and I'd vote for him again but he got some chances to shine in the hearings on Iraq with Richard Clarke and again on confirmation hearings and he completely dropped the ball from what I heard of the radio feeds. He's not a particularly good public speaker but his heart's in the right place.

I don't think he has the arrogance of certain politicians not to step aside.

Although I like your attitude in regards to Burns and Cubin, Wyoming is an uphill battle and we don't know anything about Montana yet.


by MNPundit on Tue Nov 07, 2006 at 08:09:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I don't know how we'll do in WY and MT either. (none / 0)

But I can almost guarantee you that Denny Rehberg (the current MT-AL rep) would have run about five points ahead of whatever Burns gets.  Whenever you have a flawed incumbent in your own strong political territory, you're better off getting rid of them and getting someone else.  Torricelli, Dayton, Burns, Cubin, DeLay... it's all the same story, in terms of voting at least.  


by texas dem on Tue Nov 07, 2006 at 08:19:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Some Early Thoughts (none / 0)

Looking good in WI. Voter turnout is way up. I was at the polls at 2 it was almost empty. I went back at six and it was packed(made my roommate vote). Milwaukee area turnout looks like it is going to be very big, but turnout in red areas is looking pretty high too. The Gov race is going to be super close. Should be a fun night!!


Jeremy Bentham sucks!!
by Forward with Feingold on Tue Nov 07, 2006 at 08:06:32 PM EST

Re: Some Early Thoughts (none / 0)

Anyone got results from NH or NC or OH yet?


by Sandwich Repairman on Tue Nov 07, 2006 at 08:07:42 PM EST

Re: New Hampshire (none / 0)

Early returns in NH look very good for Dems.  In NH-01 Carol Shea-Porter is leading 51-49 with 33% of the votes counted.  She was behind in the most recent polling data before the election.  The race that the Dems were more hopeful of picking up was NH-02, where Paul Hodes (D) is winning by a huge margin, but only 9% of the votes are in.  The AP has already called the governor's race for Democratic Incumbent John Lynch.


John McCain will privatize social security.
by gunnar on Tue Nov 07, 2006 at 08:36:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Hampshire (none / 0)

I am SHOCKED that Shea-Porter won.  I wonder if she'll have a hard time holding onto this seat.

I am ASTOUNDED that we captured BOTH houses of the NH legislature.  I don't know when we last controlled the House, Senate, and Governorship in NH, but it's been at least since the Civil War!

All the GOP has left it seems are the 2 US Senate seats there.  NH seems to be turning blue.


by Sandwich Repairman on Thu Nov 09, 2006 at 10:30:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Some Early Thoughts (none / 0)

CT is going to be the big indicator.  And I'm not trying to inflate the already large ego of our small state...


by Bobby McGee on Tue Nov 07, 2006 at 08:08:48 PM EST

Re: Some Early Thoughts (none / 0)

Washington Post says:

In Virginia, with just 10 percent of the vote counted, Democrat Jim Webb is a few points ahead of Sen. George Allen. Early exit polls say that Webb is leading among women, independents and -- heavily -- northern Virginians. Allen is ahead among men and military service members.

Those early returns are primarily from areas well beyond the Washington area, so make of that what you will.


by billybob on Tue Nov 07, 2006 at 08:08:56 PM EST

please explain turnout in VA (none / 0)

Earlier I read there may have been record turnout in VA--but on the official results page linked to from the Breaking Blue, they put turnout at around 20 percent.

That can't be right, can it?


John McCain: 100 years in Iraq "would be fine with me."
by desmoinesdem on Tue Nov 07, 2006 at 08:19:26 PM EST

Re: please explain turnout in VA (none / 0)

that turnout only reflects the current number of precincts reporting (about 43%).


by johnny longtorso on Tue Nov 07, 2006 at 08:26:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Some Early Thoughts (none / 0)

AP is calling FL-Sen for Nelson with totals currently at Nelson 59% to Harris 40%.


by billybob on Tue Nov 07, 2006 at 08:20:51 PM EST

Re: Some Early Thoughts (none / 0)

ELLSWORTH HAS DEFEATED HOSTETTLER IN A LANDSLIDE---CNN


by dantata on Tue Nov 07, 2006 at 08:21:19 PM EST

McCaskill won the exit poll also (none / 0)

Check out the late deciders. Staggering numbers in favor of McCaskill. If she wins and this race decides senate control, it was all in the final days.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/pages/r esults/states/MO/S/01/epolls.0.html


by Gary Kilbride on Tue Nov 07, 2006 at 08:25:17 PM EST

Re: Some Early Thoughts (none / 0)

With 43% reporting:

G F Allen      Republican        489,985        50.54%
J H Webb Jr      Democratic     467,609     48.23%
G G Parker      Independent Green     10,960     1.13%
Write Ins                993     0.10%


by RT on Tue Nov 07, 2006 at 08:29:38 PM EST

Re: Some Early Thoughts (none / 0)

Any idea if these numbers are from red or blue areas?


Jeremy Bentham sucks!!
by Forward with Feingold on Tue Nov 07, 2006 at 08:32:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Some Early Thoughts (none / 0)

CASEY DEFEATS SANTORUM.....MSNBC...


by dantata on Tue Nov 07, 2006 at 08:30:57 PM EST

Re: Some Early Thoughts (none / 0)

Allen is ahead 50 - 49 by about 15,000 votes.

Please tell me they arent' done tallying the votes in the Dem stronghold!


by dayspring on Tue Nov 07, 2006 at 08:34:44 PM EST

Re: Some Early Thoughts (none / 0)

MENENDEZ DEFEATS KEAN....CNN


by dantata on Tue Nov 07, 2006 at 08:34:52 PM EST

Re: Some Early Thoughts (none / 0)

WOW, that was quick. Thought we'd be waiting a little while for that one.


Jeremy Bentham sucks!!
by Forward with Feingold on Tue Nov 07, 2006 at 08:37:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Some Early Thoughts (none / 0)

Santorum out,  5 more to go


liberal08
by libintex on Tue Nov 07, 2006 at 08:39:17 PM EST

Check out the (none / 0)

IN-3

With 37% in.

Mark Souder (I)         33,257      53%
homas Hayhurst                 29,133   47%

The Indiana 6th is already closing, and Democratic precints in Madison County, and no precincts in Delware County have reported.  Republican turnout is mediocre.


by ManfromMiddletown on Tue Nov 07, 2006 at 08:39:43 PM EST

Re: Some Early Thoughts (none / 0)

In the next 15 mins we will pick up KY-3, and all 3 toss up IN districts


by dantata on Tue Nov 07, 2006 at 08:42:05 PM EST

Re: Some Early Thoughts (none / 0)

Dewine out, 2 down 4 to go.


liberal08
by libintex on Tue Nov 07, 2006 at 08:42:23 PM EST

Re: Some Early Thoughts (none / 0)

It looks like CNN revised their exit polls in the VA Senate race...

Male (49%)      55%      44%
Female (51%)     46%     53%

Someone who can do math... what's that turn out to?


by umcpgreg on Tue Nov 07, 2006 at 08:49:39 PM EST

Ford is definitely a loser (none / 0)

Geez, I want to see how the establishment is going to find a way to blame the angry left for Harold Ford losing major momentum in the final week of his election.


by Pravin on Tue Nov 07, 2006 at 08:50:33 PM EST

Re: Some Early Thoughts (none / 0)

How about absentee ballots.  Enough to overturn it?


by jasmine on Tue Nov 07, 2006 at 08:51:48 PM EST

Re: Some Early Thoughts (none / 0)

3RD CONG        
        Total
Number of Precincts         515    
Precincts Reporting         490    
Total Votes         230831    
Anne M. NORTHUP     REP     110738    
John YARMUTH     DEM     117212    
Donna MANCINI     LIB     1995    
W. Ed PARKER     CON     736    
Write-in Votes        150
by Johannes on Tue Nov 07, 2006 at 08:57:48 PM EST

Re: Some Early Thoughts (none / 0)

Just in checking for Ohio.  I've been with Election Protection all day in Franklin County (Columbus).

Remember that poster talking about Blackwell mailing out notes from Election Boards and then if they weren't returned disinfranchising voters?  Well it was mostly true.  If the cards that were sent out to inform the voter about the new ID requirements were returned as undeliverable, the voter was
"flagged" in the books and had to vote on provisional ballets.  These ballets are not counted until 21 days after the election.
EP fought all day with the election board because if the address in the book matched the ID they were supposed to be able to vote on a regular ballet, but the board enforced the provisional decision.


by OhioDem on Tue Nov 07, 2006 at 09:51:19 PM EST


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