Chris,

You're exactly right on this, especially if you want to build a progressive majority.  This seat and Foley's seat are anomalies this year that are amusing, but even in other uber-red seats, Dems are only going to hold the seat with Conservative and centrist candidates.

If you want a progressive Congress, the seats that are more important are the ones where progressives can win, not just Democrats.  Not to understate the importance of supporting conservative Democrats to get the neocon hate and killing machine out of power for good, but guys like Ellsworth, Shuler, Lucas, & Trauner in the House and Tester and Webb in the Senate aren't going to do progressives any favors if they're elected.

Winning the PA and NY and CT and MN seats are the seats that will advance the progressive movement much more than winning in WY or ID.

It would be fun to be Nick Lampson in that situation, unchained from the normal burden of expectations, see what you can do in two years to mess with the right-wingers. Chris Bell did something like that after Delay redistricted him out, filed charges against the bastard everyone else was afraid to look in the eye.

There are still long-term benefits, I'm sure you'll agree, with contesting (and winning) in these seats.  Here are two reasons:

1. Nick Lampson might do a fantastic job as a congressman, and develop personal popularity in his district that enables him to keep winning because of his moderate views (a la Jim Matheson, Stephanie Herseth, Dennis Moore, Melissa Bean perhaps).  In this case, the seat may be at least "lean Dem" for the next few cycles or until a big Republican wave (if that ever happens again).

2. Even if Nick wins this time and loses in 2008, by holding that seat, hee has the opportunity to get the Democratic message out to Republican voters who haven't heard it in a long time.  I hold out hope that we can reach voters like these and eventually convince them that Republican policies, er, suck.  At the very least, maybe Nick will show some Republican voters in his district that Democrats can be good leaders, and in the long-term, maybe some of them will give Democratic candidates a second look.

One of the keys to building a long-term majority is to destroy the two basic myths that are the major sources of political capital for the GOP; the notion that Republicans can be trusted to take care of national security, and the notion that Republicans are prudent fiscal managers.  Given the track record of the GOP in recent years, one would like to think that the electorate has already figured out that these myths are ancient history, but deeply-held beliefs like these die hard.   It took generations for these myths to take root, and we won't be able to undo them quickly.  But if we can shoot down those two myths, the GOP is finished, because they have nothing else to offer.

If Lampson can win and is popular enough to be re-elected, he can re-draw his seat and make it more Democratic friendly. TX-22 is about 55-60 GOP right now. Most Texas districts have been redrawn in similar forms. Almost only Hispanic and African-American seats remain democratic. Due to a caucasian majority, these congressmen and congresswomen have a difficult time winning statewide elections. Which is why Texas hasn't elected a democrat statewide since 1994. Now too much time has passed to field a former Lieut. Gov. or Comptroller or A.G. for a statewide office. Which explains the top of the ticket in 2006 being a one-term congressman and an attorney from Houston. The dem. Lieut. Gov. candidate Maria Alvarado is a middle school administrator and has raised under $9,000 to David Dewhurst's $3 million. Texas was one of the most democratic states before 1994 and should be changed back for the good of the people.

I agree with lorax that the benefits of contesting and winning in red seats are worth the effort and resources.

Actually, I will go a step further.  The only way we are going to win consistently, ala Dean's 50 state strategy, is to spread the progressive message around the country.  Otherwise we will only win in wave elections and lose control when the public reverts to their standard Republican ways.

Only by winning hearts and minds will we win in the long term.  Electing a bunch of liberals in the NE and left coast will not endear progressive principles to everyone living in between.  

Getting guys like Lampson in office gives us a chance to spread the good word to places that do not hear our choir often enough.  Whether Lampson spreads the good word is another question, but it certainly will not hurt.