I just arrived back in Philadelphia from Rochester--I will have another post on the trip later today. On the train from the airport, I happened upon the city's free daily, The Metro. The top headline was the FBI raid on Curt Weldon. Now, I am back in my apartment, and I notice that the #2 headline nationally is the FBI raid on Curt Weldon's daughter, with
667 articles so far. I have to wonder if there is any way at all that Weldon can survive this.
Even before all of this happened, the situation looked grim for crazy / corrupt Curt. The only two independent polls on the race had both shown leads for Joe Sestak. The most recent poll,
conducted by Constituent Dynamics, showed Sestak up 52-44. These numbers are entirely believable when you consider that in 2004, Weldon's opponent, Paul Scholes, came within about 17% of Weldon despite only raising $24K and campaigning for 90 days. Now, in a Democratic year, Weldon is facing Joe Sestak, who has raised $2.3M, and who also has
138% of Weldon's cash on hand.
Here is the kicker: if Sestak wins this seat, he will hold it comfortably at least until redistricting. This seat already had a strong Democratic partisan voting index, and is turning even bluer every year. Perhaps even sweeter, the news on Weldon will have major repercussions for our chances in both PA-06 and PA-08, as Republican corruption dominates local headlines in Philadelphia. If either Murphy wins this year, they will look very good to hold onto their seats for a long time to come. In fact, with this raid becoming such a large nationally story, the PA-07 could have a ripple effect in House races across the nation, as the notion of corrupt Republicans is reinforced yet again.
In 2004, local and national Democrats made very little effort to challenge Curt Weldon and, before Greenwood dropped out, very little effort to try and win the PA-08 too. In 2002, we were actually on the defensive in PA-13, but now Allyson Schwartz is completely safe. The same can happen to PA-06, PA-07, and PA-08 in future cycles. We have a strong chance for a decisive local realignment, where the Philadelphia suburbs vote Democratic up and down the ballot. Both Rendell and Casey will score huge victories in the Philly 'burbs. Recent polls from all three Republican-held congressional districts show all three Democrats ahead. Back in May, a special election for State Senate in the Philadelphia suburbs saw
a Democrat win by 13% in a district with a 23% Republican registration advantage. The 2006 elections have the potential to change the nature of politics in the Philadelphia metro area for a long time to come. This will also have national implications. If the Philadelphia suburbs turn solid blue, then Pennsylvania will cease to be a swing state in national elections. If Pennsylvania becomes part of the solid Democratic electoral base, then electoral math becomes extremely complicated for Republicans in Presidential elections.
As with upstate New York, the 2006 elections can deliver a haymaker blow to Republicans in this region. The goal now is not just to take control of the House, but to start the long-term push of trapping Republicans in their extremist base, thereby causing national realignment. We won't have a chance like this again for a long time. The 2006 elections can serve as a means to stay in power for many years after 2006. When people say that you have to act like you are ten points down even when you are ahead in the polls, I say hogwash. Instead, you have to act like you know you can achieve something that will last far beyond this election, and that will change the country for a long time to come. End game in districts like PA-07 is not simply to close out the last three weeks and win, but rather to win in such a way that will send reverberations around the entire nation. If we have enough small, regional realignments as we are starting to see in upstate New York and the Philadelphia metro area, it will eventually add up to a national realignment. In addition to the two areas I am focusing on, this is already happening in places like Colorado, Ohio, Northern Virginia and the Research Triangle. This is the Emerging Democratic Majority right here, right now. Don't act like you are behind when you are winning. Instead, act like you are about to take command, and move with the urgency that comes with the extremely rare opportunity for realignment. You don't get opportunities like this every election cycle, or even every decade. We have to make this chance count.
Help turn my backyard blue for years to come.
