House Retirement Woes: 1994 Dems... 2006 GOP?
There is a common misconception among members of the Washington cognoscenti that there will not not be enough Republican retirements in the House to offer the Democrats a real shot at recapturing the chamber next year. While it is certainly true that the Democrats would be greatly aided by a swarm of GOP retirements, it is still early in the cycle and thus would be hasty to rule out the possibility of a Democratic victory next fall simply on the basis of the limited number of Republicans who have announced their plans to retire.
As of November 11, The Cook Political Report listed four Republican Congressmen as retiring. They are:
- Randy "Duke" Cunningham, CA-50 (PVI R+5)
- Mike Bilirakis, FL-09 (PVI R+4)
- Henry Hyde, IL-06 (PVI R+3)
- Michael Oxley, OH-04 (PVI R+14)
Looking at the 1994 midterms, the last sweeping victory for either party in House elections, only seven Democrats had announced their decisions to retire by the corresponding point in the cycle -- despite the fact that 20 House Democrats eventually retired rather than face reelection. There are not, in fact, that many fewer Republicans who have already announced retirement plans this cycle.
The real wave of Democratic retirements during the 1994 cycle did not occur until the months of January and February, when nine more Dems announced their retirements or resignations (another four Dems -- all from the South -- announced their retirements that April). History certainly does not write off the possibility of such a spate of winter and spring retirements happening within the House GOP ranks this cycle. [Source: CQ Weekly, "Congressional Departures" Oct. 22, 1994 Page 2995]
During that same cycle, eight House Democrats chose to forgo reelection bids in favor of attempts at higher office (none of which was eventually successful). This left open 28 Democratically-held seats. [Source: Ibid.] Currently, Cook lists nine Republicans as giving up their House seats to run for higher office, which brings the total number of open seats currently held by Republicans to 14. With even a modest number of additional GOP retirements in early 2006 -- a realistic possibility given President Bush's horrific approval and disapproval ratings (which could scare off "blue" state Republicans, in particular) and the legal woes facing some members -- the Republicans could have to defend close to as many seats as the Democrats did in 1994.
The 2006 midterms are still a long way away, and much can still happen before election day. It's important to note that although a wave of Republican retirements remains a possibility, it is by no means a lock. But Republicans are quickly approaching the point at which they could lose the House just by failing to hold on to their open seats -- a situation even the Democrats did not face in 1994. Just a few more untimely retirements (or timely, given your perspective) could really put the National Republican Congressional Committee on its heels in the next few months, allowing the Democrats to pounce. And the possibility of a Pelosi speakership, which just months ago seemed as unlikely as Newt Gingrich speakership did in 1993, increasingly looks like it could become a reality.
the idea for this post was germinated during a conversation with professor David Menefee-Libey
|
|
|
Permalink :: 23 Comments :: Post a Comment
|
In order to post a comment, you must be logged in. If you have a member account, please log in to comment.
If not, you can make an account right here. It's quick and free.
