Johnson is the October Surprise
I still have the feeling that Gary Johnson is going to become the October surprise. Ben Sasse never happened, which clears the way for Johnson and Weld to have a real shot. This is pretty amazing.
A great post on Red State describing what the state of the election is today.
And just to be clear, I have no role in the campaign. I worked for Johnson's '12 effort, setting up all of his tech and digital campaign, but bowed out once it got going. That was the end of the gig. I've nothing to do with politics, now, but I do care for the direction of the country, and electing Johnson would be incredible.
As I outlined a few months ago, all that has to occur is for the election to be moved into the House of Representatives, by neither Clinton or Trump netting the majority of electoral votes. Theoretically, it is possible (between two candidates) to have a 269-269 tie out of the 538 votes. It's also possible that Johnson/Weld win a few a state, or a few states, to keep the majority away from Clinton or Trump.
Utah, as RS blogs, is probably the best shot. In fact, Johnson may already be considered to be an election-day favorite in the state, if things go the way of the trend. But he probably needs at least another state or two, in a three-way race, to have this scenario pan out. They would most likely also be western states, speciifically mountain region. Colorado, New Mexico, Montana, Idaho, Nevada, fit more or less in that role.
Beyond that, it is really just a matter of how high Johnson is in the national vote before single states would go his way. If he's at 30% alot more, less so with being at 20% in the final vote.
The other way is that Johnson gets to 270 all by himself (what a world!). To do that seems quite a reach. He'd need to be at that 30% and take states like Texas and California. Option A is easier.
It is certainly plausible. In a nation which puts a Trump at 40 plus in the polls for vindification, they would just as likely put a Johnson in the Presidency. Why opt for the tragic with the comedic offers up.