For 3/15 Primaries: Dump Trump and Sanders Upset?
That's the opposite of what is supposed to occur on Tuesday, but who knows! There are signs though, of Trump dumping and Sanders upsetting.
Going into this, from 3/1 Super Tuesday, the conclusion would have been seen as Trump and Clinton sweeping the states of MO, NC, IL, OH, FL. They were ahead in the polls of those states.
The results from Wyoming and DC might be an outlier or significant of things to come. Trump only recieved 7% of the vote in WY and 14% in DC. Resulting in delegates:
DC is not shocking, but only 7% in the Wyoming caucus for Trump? In Idaho, albeit a primary, Trump got 28% so perhaps. Onto the states:
Ohio-- Kasich should win solidly, probably in the mid-40's. Trump's numbers are falling, he might wind up 3rd behind Cruz in the state. There are not enough places in Ohio for Trump to flame the discontent; the economy is well and Kasich is fairly popular.
North Carolina-- Trump will win widely, 40% or so, Cruz in 2nd. Trump's numbers here have went up since the Chicago flare-up. NC Republicans have both Dixie & Appalachia, so not surprising at all. However, the delegates are awarded by vote, so even Rubio and Kasich will get a few.
Missouri-- It's between Cruz & Trump. I will predict a Cruz upset in MO overall, but a Trump win in the CD's. There is only one poll, showing it close, but Cruz has done well in the midwestern cities. Trump will win the Ozarks by a majority.
Illinois-- Like MO. It might also vote Kasich above the threshold for delegates by winning a couple of CD's. Really hard to predict how the state of Lincoln goes Trump, but it might, in a slim plurality. I'll predict a Cruz victory because of the downstate mild-mannered vote.
Florida-- Rubio could pull an upset, according the the Mason-Dixon poll. Here's the pros: It's a closed primary, Trump heavily depends on voters aged 18-24, and Rubio leads among the most likely voters, aged 65 plus. Rubio also leads among the early voters, by 9 percent. Everything about this poll, and how Florida votes, is pointing to an upset.
The cons (shorter but more significant): Other polls have Trump winning Florida easily.
On the Democratic side, Clinton should win all 5 of these states. But that's not going to happen most likely.
Illinois-- Sanders has the lead there now, and has an upset here. He's framed his election against Rahm!
Ohio-- This is the second best shot for a Sanders upset, but I will stick with Clinton. The economy is improving in the state (which is also helping Kasich).
Missouri-- Sanders third best state, but unlikely. But yes, a lot of unrest that could benefit Sanders.
NC, FL-- Clinton will win these two southern states (which seems like her only stronghold) easily.
Next week, comes the Arizona primary. Wow, the site of Trump's wall (at least partially). That should be very hot in more ways than just the weather.