Caucus Day Morning
I really love the Bernie Sanders emails. Who else has ever started them with "Sisters and Brothers" and ended with "In solidarity"? Fantastic.
From the comment on the Iowa prediction thread:
- It all depends on turnout now. If the Dems turn out en masse, then Bernie is likely going to win. Bernie's supporters are extremely passionate, much like Obama's were in 2008. Hillary's support is soft.
Maybe I am a bit too optimistic about Clinton's Iowa machine with the 10% win prediction? Could be, polls have closed tighter (But Clinton will take a strong majority of the delegates). On the GOP side, it does look like Rubio will have that surge. In either IA or NH, an establishment candidate beating out Cruz for 2nd is not great for Trump. But, who knows, Trump seems to be pulling in quite a number of Democrats and new voters, so it may not matter.
- Most voting for her have simply accepted the media hype that she's our anointed candidate without question. Hillary may receive support based entirely on gender but I believe that most voters aren't that shallow. Americans are sick of the rigged system that Hillary won't dismantle. Hillary has prospered handsomely from that rigged system. And since she is relying on campaign donations from the wealthy elite, she will owe them if they help her win...
Yes, that is a shared-feature behind both the Trump and the Sander's surge. John Judis wrote about the common features: http://www.vox.com/2016/1/30/10869974/trump-sanders-economic-history
It's the beginning of a populist plurality, perhaps majority, if it can compartmentalize the divisive cultural issues from the essential economic ones.
- Hillary's poll negatives are greater than her positives. Rarely has a candidate won with high negative poll numbers...
We can probably throw out the correlation of high negative numbers with winning. It's not what it used to be, in that regards. Trump's numbers are just terrible, but in a polarity, where people are looking to upset the system, they will say its a terrible messenger at the same time they vote for that alternative.