McCain has almost zero chance at the GOP nomination. He is loathed by the base of the party. Try posting on some balanced sites or talking to Republicans on a regular basis and that will be clear in a hurry. There was even a poll that demonstrated it a month or so ago, that people who give Bush high favorable numbers think very low of McCain, somnething like a 20 or 30 point gap. There is no way McCain can survive that in a primary season. The base will look elsewhere.

I'm convinced it will be Guiliani. Again, I'll point out the Strategic Vision polls. They ask Republicans their 2008 preference and Guiliani is the overwhelming choice in every state other than Michigan, where McCain leads. Guiliani's edge over McCain is in the 20 point range in many of the states. We will reject Hillary on electability but electability is Guiliani's ace. He puts New York and the northeast in play and his views on the social issues can help him among swing voters.

It's at our peril we assume he will be denied the nomination. Just last night I talked to a far right wing friend who I hadn't seen in 6 months and when we started talking politics he immediately championed Guiliani for 2008.