I strongly disagree that people will not understand or forget about this in 5 weeks, that's really about the perfect amount of time.

Sure, there's a republican news dump going on which is sure to continue, but huge scandal after huge scandal can't possibly be to their advantage.  Newsrooms around the country struggle to figure out which scandal to lead with.  The narrative of "Republicans in disarray" will continue for weeks.

Also, Hastert and Reynolds (the head of the NRCC) aren't working much on the election at this point, with damage control sucking up most of their time.

IMHO, 90% sounds about right now for dems taking the house.  It's almost a shoo-in.

My only fear is Bush bombing Iran as a way of controlling conversation in the country, never mind the long-term implications.  Short term, it will make oil and gas prices spike, so it's not a winner for the GOP, but Bush is controlling/illogical enough that he'd do it just because he can.  He scares me.