A Trump & Bernie Day
Trump's target of delegates for this Tuesday is 272 according to 538. Florida is 99 and Ohio is 66. Together, Missouri and Illinois are 121. North Carolina has 72, and the Northern Marianas has 9.
Trump is making a last minute push to capture Ohio, feeling no doubt, according the polls, that Florida is secure. Ohio polling shows Kasich ahead or tied in its last six polls. In NC, Trump will take about 45 percent, will sweep the 9 from NM (per reports), and MO & IL will be about a tie between Trump and Cruz.
That puts Trump at, give or take 200, about 70 short of his target. Rubio drops out, and its a three way race. If Trump also wins Ohio then he's at his target, and Kasich also drops out too. Either way, there's still one more act to play out in the Republican nomination race. Despite the last post I made, from what I can tell, Trump's numbers have continued to surge, or at least maintain, so I wouldn't be surprised to see him win across the board tomorrow.
Bernie has polls showing him very close, or leading, in the states of Missouri, Illinois, and Ohio. If he wins those three states, it's going to be very interesting and competitive going into the next states. A Utah caucus, which Bernie will win. An Arizona primary, which will be competitive, and then a Wisconsin primary in April, which Bernie would also probalby win.
Even if he wins just one state tomorrow, Bernie will go on. But if he wins three, and then the next three states, its going to move the discourse to a level where there is talk of Sanders taking the lead in delegates.
Bernie is not there yet, but if he's able to half the lead, by April 5th, from the current 212 of pledged delegates to about 100, it begins to be a plausible outcome.